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Economy and Business

The government’s demonetisation drive has seen fierce debates. Opposition parties, with the exception of the JD(U), are visibly confused. Their protest is directionless — a case of wanting to have the cake and eat it too. Each of them rails against black money but none has any formula. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is an exception, supporting demonetisation with a demand for a strong law against benami property.

 
Civil society groups across Asia, Latin America, Oceania, and North America are upbeat on what they are calling the “definitive demise” of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), with Donald Trump becoming the President of the US.  
 
From the book “Flying with the Winged Elephant: Niche Opportunities for Global Businesses that May Emerge in India”, published by Libertas European Institut GmbH, Germany  
 
From the book “Flying with the Winged Elephant: Niche Opportunities for Global Businesses that May Emerge in India”, published by Libertas European Institut GmbH, Germany  
 
The world is plentifully supplied with companies which can and do print bank notes. If even Venezuela can manage to find a company that will print bolivar fuerte notes then this must be one of those things which is true. We also know roughly the cost of such notes. In the 10 US cents to 20 US cents per note range, dependent upon security features incorporated and so on. All of which leaves us with something of a puzzle, which is why does India suffer from a shortage of bank notes following demonetisation?  
 
While demonetisation still dominates most of the headlines, rising crude prices could prove to be the next policy headache.The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) struck a deal to cut output in late-November that subsequently included non-OPEC countries last week. In the past two weeks, the price of Brent crude has risen by some 20 per cent in dollar terms.  
 

Imagine a situation where the Government suddenly declares that at the stroke of midnight, the supply of petrol, diesel and coal (for thermal power stations) would be curtailed to half for a few days. Reason being, these fossil fuels are ‘black’ (carbon-emitting)  and contribute towards global warming.

Imagine a situation where the Government suddenly declares that at the stroke of midnight, the supply of petrol, diesel and coal (for thermal power stations) would be curtailed to half for a few days. Reason being, these fossil fuels are ‘black’ (carbon-emitting)  and contribute towards global warming.

 

 

With demonetisation expected to hurt tax revenue collections, at least for the three months to December, states might need to curtail their planned capex spends for the current year. A clutch of nine states—which account for 60% of GDP—had bugdeted for an increase in capex of around 15.8 % in the current year, after adjusting for the debt arising from the UDAY scheme.

 

 

It seems that the fracas in Parliament over demonetisation will impede the roll-out, or at any rate the completion of all the legal requirements, by April 2017. A six months' delay is definitely on the cards, unless both the ruling party and the Opposition get their act together. 

 
In the brouhaha over demonetisation, more correctly, withdrawal of the legal tender status of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, the related, but crucial, issue of its possible adverse consequences for the RBI’s autonomy, has unfortunately escaped notice.  
 


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Review
 
 
 
 
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