Dhaka: The number of fatalities and infections due to novel coronavirus is increasing alarmingly in Bangladesh with the country recording 19 deaths and 1,162 new cases in 24 hours -- the highest single-day spike.

With the latest figures, the death toll rose to 269. The total number of confirmed cases crossed the 17,000-mark, breaking previous records and climbing to 17,822.

Worryingly, the number of cases has surged significantly in the last several days when the government expanding test facilities and easing restrictions on the reopening of markets.

The country may see nearly 50,000 cases in total by the end of this month while the death toll may hit 800 by this time, according to a government estimate made using a projection model.

However, health experts said no projection will be accurate with inadequate detections and the country might continue to see cases and deaths rising unless measures are not taken scientifically.

"We have no alternative to taking aggressive measures in case detection and isolation to control the situation. Otherwise, the situation may get out of hand," Prof Muzaherul Huq, former advisor to the World Health Organization (WHO), South East Asia region, told The Daily Star.

On April 17, authorities reported 15 deaths -- second highest in a single day. On Monday, the number of daily detected cases surpassed the 1,000 mark for the first time with the second highest of 1034.

In last ten days since May 3, the number of detected cases almost doubled -- from 9455 to 17,822.

GOVT ESTIMATE VS REALITY

Experts said the government estimation regarding the number of positive cases and deaths from the novel coronavirus infection does not reflect the reality.

This newspaper contacted Dr Shafiun Shimul, who helped the DGHS make the time-series based projection published on April 20.

According to the projection, the number of positive cases may hit 48,386 on May 31 while the death toll may cross 815.

In his another projection made based on the epidemiological model SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, or Recovered), he showed that the number of positive cases will cross 40,000 by the same date.

"The projection necessarily does not reflect the reality. This was based on the daily number of tests, detection and number of deaths. If the daily tests do not increase, there will be lesser cases than the projection," said Dr Shafiun, an associate professor of health economics at Dhaka University.

He added that the real number may be two to three times higher as there are many hidden cases.

"The current situation is not like what was 20 days ago. The more we get accurate and representative data, the more our predictions are accurate. These models will help decide on future strategy to fight the outbreak."

According to media reports, around a thousand patients with Covid-19 symptoms died so far after the country reported first cases.

Talking on this issue, experts said there should be at least 10,000 tests daily immediately and it should be increased in course of time to gauge the real picture.

"Unless every person can get access to test when they need it, no prediction will reflect the reality," Prof Muzaherul Huq said.

He thinks no measures without scientific basis will work.

"The concept of herd immunity is absurd. As there is no vaccine for Covid-19, herd immunity means letting around 80 percent of the population to be infected. None but Sweden has become able to accept this," Prof Huq said.

LOCKDOWN IN THREE WAYS

Prof Huq suggested imposing district-wise three types of lockdown in this situation.

All the district should be isolated from one another but people's movement and all other activities have to be controlled based on the number of detected cases, he said.

"If there are less than 10 cases in any district, there is no need to impose lockdown in that district."

If there are 10 to 100 cases in any district, that should be locked down partially, he added.

"For the districts like Dhaka, there must be complete lockdown. During these measures, case detection, isolation and treatment should be done aggressively. There is no way of taking scientific measures before us," said Prof Huq, also founder of Public Health Foundation of Bangladesh.

RECORD SURGE

During a daily briefing on the coronavirus situation yesterday, Prof Nasima Sultana, additional director general (administration) at the DGHS, said some 214 patients recovered in 24 hours till 2:30pm, taking the total number of recovery cases to 3,361.

"The recovery rate now stands at 18.52 percent and mortality rate at 1.53 percent," said Prof Nasima.

Of the 19 deceased, 12 were male and seven females.

Thirteen of them died in hospitals in Dhaka and one of them was from Pabna district, according to press release from DGHS.

Of the other dead, Narayanganj, Munshiganj, Cumilla and Narail district saw one death each while two patients died in Chattogram district.

One of the deceased was aged under 10, one between 31 and 40, seven between 51 and 60, five between 61 and 70 while the other five were aged between 71 and 80.

So far, the highest number of detected cases -- around 60 percent -- are in Dhaka city, according to the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) website.

The authorities reported the first three cases on March 8 and the first death from Covid-19 on March 18.

'COVID-19 NOT A SEVERE DISEASE'

Meanwhile, Health Minister Zahid Maleque yesterday once again said the Covid-19 is not a severe disease.

"I do not think Covid-19 is a severe disease; at least it is not causing deaths in that scale. Some 250 people died so far; I pray mercy for the departed souls. But we can say, Bangladesh is in better status compared to many countries," he said.

"While around 20 to 30 thousand people died in Europe, we have lesser deaths and affected people over the same period," the minister said while speaking as the chief guest at the joining programme of newly appointed doctors and nurses at BCPS Auditorium in the capital.

He said there are more cases in Dhaka as economic activity is more here. "Only 2,500 people were infected with the virus outside Dhaka. The rest are in Dhaka."

He claimed that the government has responded rightly to tackle the situation.

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