A team of management professionals, technologists, traders with long experience in their respective field have put their heads together and arrived at suggestions for lifting the lockdown in India in the first phase. The discussions were organised by Nandini Consultancy Centre (www.nandinichemical.com ), a firm of chemical engineers and chemical business consultants based at Chennai and Singapore

The background of the team :

* Doctorate in chemical engineering with over five decades of experience
*  Management professional -  MBA  from Indian Institute of Ahmedabad
* Former bank official with expertise in business / financial analysis
* Director of a leading trading house
* Industry professional with long experience in shop floor management
* Trustee of a non-government organisation, serving the cause of deprived and downtrodden persons

The suggestions evolved after in-depth discussions are given below. There is no point in discussing the economic loss that is happening in India now due to the 21-day lockdown, which now appears to be beyond calculation. This view is applicable to all countries in the world, except perhaps, China, from where information flow is suspect and lacks credibility.

The present lockdown scenario in India: While lockdown has been on in India for the last several days, it should be clear that it is not total. In other words, one can say that India has been under partial lockdown. For example, there is no restriction in agricultural operations, harvesting and transportation/procurement of the harvested products. Agriculture has a good share of Indian GDP and employs a very large number of the labour force.

There is no restriction now on transportation of essential and non-essential goods. There is no restriction on crude oil carriers docking at Indian ports and discharging the goods.

Grocery shops, vegetable market, medical shops are all allowed to operate for stipulated hours every day. Newspapers are distributed every day and milk is available without any issues for the consumers. Bank operations are continuing. Stock exchanges are in operation. Several pharmaceutical units are operating though at reduced capacities.

For example, the CEO of Serum Institute has said that the company is operating the Pune plant at 10 percent capacity and has kept the maintenance and basic facilities at the bare minimum.

The CEO of Godrej Consumer Products has said that the unit has been ramping up production of essential items, though at reduced capacity. The factories of Godrej Consumer Products are running at 20 to 25 percent production levels producing essential items. About 50 to 60 percent of the depots of this company are open and 25 to 30 percent of distributors have the permission to operate. Similar is the scenario in the case of several other pharmaceutical units and those producing what is termed as essential goods.

Under such circumstances, it should be kept in mind that whatever growth of the virus that has been taking place in India during this lockdown period have been under such partial lockdown conditions, and so the virus spread in India has been much less as compared to several other countries, particularly considering India’s high population level and density and the level of literacy.

While the central and state governments have been taking earnest steps to persuade or force people to remain at home and maintain social distance, this has not been entirely successful. Everyone is not observing the guidelines strictly, though most people are.

In a situation where one infected person can infect more than 400 people in 30 days, social distancing is a vital need.

The government has already put forth maximum efforts with extensive media support to promote the concept of social distancing.

There is a genuine fear that further relaxation of the lockdown will lead to people taking the situation for granted and crowding themselves in streets and elsewhere. This could be the possible immediate negative result of relaxation of lockdown, which would undo the gains achieved during the 21-day lockdown period.

Why is the relaxation necessary?

The consequence of continuing the lockdown, even under present conditions, could be grave, as the self-employed people like vendors, plumbers, auto drivers, small automobile workshops etc.  as well as  poor senior citizens, visually impaired/differently-abled people, who are millions in number all over the country, would be badly hit. While the government has so far managed to buy peace with the people in distress conditions by extending freebies and rupee transfer, this cannot be done to the same extent anymore as the government would run out of funds.

Further extending the lockdown period in a present manner may lead to protest and social unrest, particularly amongst the poorer section of the society.

Therefore, it is absolutely important that economic activity should be allowed to resume gradually. even at a slow rate, to give a feeling of hope to the people.

Phase down schedule in stages: Government has to relax the lockdown gradually and carefully and this should be reviewed once in fifteen days to decide about further relaxation based on experience.

Suggestions for action between April 15 to April 30: While the present status of partial lockdown should be broadly maintained, the following further relaxation should be carried out

There are many companies in the field of pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, food processing, electronic goods, research institutes, quality control labs, etc. which are operating under strict safety parameters even in normal times and they should be allowed to resume operation irrespective of the number of employees. In such companies, observance of ecologically safe procedures is a pre-condition for observing the specification of the end products and achieving results and therefore, they would be working in virus-free conditions. Of course, management of these companies should be asked to give a guarantee to the government that they operate at virus-free conditions.

If any company would not be in a position to guarantee the virus-free condition, then it should not be allowed to operate.

All organisations/companies in the private and public sector which have total manpower strength of 50 or less should be allowed to resume operations. Each employee should compulsorily wear a mask and the working space between the employees should be kept at a minimum of three feet. The employers should be asked to give a guarantee to the government in writing that this stipulation would be strictly observed. All organisations/companies with employee strength of more than fifty should be allowed to operate.

For local transport, the vehicle owners, auto-rickshaws, taxis should be allowed to ply,  carrying only a maximum of three passengers at a time for the cars/taxis, maximum of two passengers for auto rickshaws. Pillion riding in two-wheelers should not be allowed.

For comparatively low paid workers, the companies should be asked to arrange transport or should be asked to reimburse their transport expenses for taxis/autorickshaws.

To start with, domestic flights should be permitted with each passenger being asked to produce a health certificate from a doctor. The number of passengers in each aircraft should also be restricted to maintain social distance.

While the above steps will not immediately result in any significant expansion of economic activities, they would be needed as the first step for initiation of lockdown relaxation in phases.

Strategies that need to continue during this period -

All places of worship should be barred for visitors

All the places of entertainment such as cinema theatres, parks/amusement parks, etc. should not be allowed to operate

All schools and colleges should continue to remain closed

All public meetings, demonstrations should be barred.

Existing Section 144 rule that bars the assembly of five or more people should continue and should be strictly enforced and the violators should be punished.

Status of the strategically important companies: In Singapore, strategically important companies have been carefully identified and have been given exemption from general conditions of lockdown under strict supervision.

In India, there are many software companies, who serve as “back office” for many large multinational companies. In the event of the back office not functioning in India, the operation of several companies abroad could be severely disturbed. This condition poses the threat of Indian software companies losing the global market share. This aspect has to be carefully looked into.

The benefits: With the existing relaxed lockdown continuing, and the above suggestions for further relaxation being implemented, there will be a semblance of economic activity which can be further enhanced gradually over a period based on the developing situation.

These suggestions need to be implemented to keep the morale of the people high, which is an essential requirement for a stable and progressive society.

The difference in view of central and state governments: With the political scenario in India being what it is, it is possible that some of the state governments run by opposition parties may defy the Government of India’s directive. The country cannot afford a confrontation between central and state governments at this stage. Therefore, the central government may ask the state governments to treat its suggestions as advisory in nature and proceed according to its decision.

(The writer is a Trustee, NGO Nandini Voice for the Deprived, Chennai. He can be contacted at nsvenkatchennai@gmail.com)