INDIA - CHINA: INDIA’S FIRST MOVES ON THE DIGITAL FRONT

In a statement of intent, the government, opting for coercive diplomacy, has banned 59 Chinese apps.  Citing “emergent nature of threats,” the government said they were engaged in activities “prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity”, defence, security and public order.

UNDER PRESSURE, BUT PM MODI WILL SURVIVE THE INDIA - CHINA STAND-OFF AS WELL AS THE COVID CRISES

These are exceptionally difficult times. But the two main issues that will have major political consequences for the government are the India - China border confrontation and the management of the Covid-19 crisis.

DOMESTIC POLITICS IMPACT CHINA POLICY: BJP’S CHINA PERCEPTION

The domestic fallout of the border clash has not followed a single course. At one level, there is outrage over the deaths of soldiers. There have been protests over China made products even as the government took steps to make India inhospitable for Chinese businesses. The political  reactions have generally followed the course of domestic polarization.

DEBATE ON INDIA’S NEW CHINA POLICY AND ON A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF CHINA’S STRATEGIC GOALS

The fierce border clash has sparked a debate on a fresh look at India’s China policy. A new policy would flow from many factors including an understanding of its neighbours’ strategic priorities and its perceptions; India’s own threat perceptions; learnings from the past; implications, including economic, of a change in course and related factors.

INDIA - CHINA: INDIA MILITARILY MORE THAN A MATCH

The border remains tense with PLA reinforcing structures and forces at disputed areas, indicating it may not disengage. India remains firm with the armed forces given a free hand on the ground. Specialised high altitude warfare forces have been deployed along LAC. Experts believe the Indian Air Force has local advantage.

COVID-19: FAILURES AND SUCCESSES

PM Narendra Modi has informed States that hard lockdowns of the earlier kind are unlikely to be repeated. He asked them to prepare for Unlock 2, following the graded opening of economic activities under Unlock 1 since June 1.

INDIA - NEPAL: A NEW LOW IN RELATIONS

Nepal’s decision to pass the constitutional amendment ratifying a change in its maps that include Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura, territories that India controls, marks a new low in ties. The study explains the border issue, the rise of Nepal’s anti-India nationalism, its brinkmanship, the China factor as well as a Nepalese perspective.

INDIA - CHINA: POLICY, MILITARY, ECONOMIC OPTIONS; UNDERSTANDING KASHMIR, LADAKH & AKSAI CHIN

The Study provides a situation report on the border stand-off with rival claims; limitations of PM Modi’s personalised diplomacy; assessments and suggestions by domain experts; debate on military and strategic aspects; difficult choices before India; trade boycott may do more harm than good; and finally where does Kashmir, Ladakh and Aksai Chin fit in the present conflict.  

PROSPECTS OF ECONOMIC REVIVAL

Data for leading indicators reveals economic activity appears to have picked up, although marginally. The pace of contraction in some of the economic indicators has moderated from the lows observed in April. The real positive are in the agriculture sector, rural / unorganised and micro finance sectors, even as reverse migration may damage rural economy.

CHALLENGES TO THE MODI GOVERNMENT

Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi remaining the tallest political leader and with four years to go for the next general elections, some observers  believe the BJP has two fundamental challenges - chaos, and itself.

UNDERSTANDING THE INDIA, CHINA STANDOFF AT THE LINE OF ACTUAL CONTROL (LAC)

In perhaps the first steps towards de-escalation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), after being eyeball to eyeball for a month, Indian and Chinese troops have started moving back  from standoff positions at different points in the Galwan and Hot Spring areas of Ladakh.  But the substantive issues  remain unresolved.