The Chinese incursions at several places in Ladakh are unprecedented in terms of scale, planning and strategic intent. While the actual ingress has been by about 5000 PLA soldiers, the buildup of artillery and logistics across the Line of Actual Control and of aircraft in the forward airbases of Tibet is far more ominous. It is clear that these are not localized incidents and have the clearance of higher-ups in Beijing. The buildup sends a signal that should India opt for a muscular response, the Chinese are fully prepared for an escalation. The Chinese have presented us with a fait accompli, which puts the onus of further escalation on India amidst its fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.  

What could be China’s strategic intent given that it is already facing a lot of opprobrium from the entire world for the pandemic, which emanated from Wuhan? Whether the virus is synthetic, as USA and some other countries are alleging, or it has emerged from the Chinese wet markets, is a moot point and must be investigated further. Nonetheless, China is guilty of initially concealing its onset and then the actual extent of its virulence, which has caused over 353,000 deaths worldwide.  The pandemic has severely damaged most national economies and plunged the world into a global recession.

There is extensive damage also to China’s own export-driven economy. Future prospects too seem very bleak with its ongoing trade war with USA. Several Japanese, South Korean, European and US firms are either already in the process of moving out production to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, or are seriously contemplating doing so. Trump has also sharpened his anti-China rhetoric and has vowed to hold China accountable, which he will certainly follow through to bolster his flagging reelection campaign. Internally, the Chinese leadership is facing criticism for its handling of the pandemic, even though the regime has brutally suppressed dissent and clamped down on news.

For once, Xi Jinping seemed to be on a shaky wicket and desperately needed a low-cost, low-risk geopolitical maneuver to bolster his image at home and abroad. Thus, what better option could there be than to stage-manage an external crisis that would rouse nationalist fervour in China and divert attention from its internal and external problems. The world would not take notice being preoccupied with the pandemic and their bruised economies. Besides, frequent Sino-Indian skirmishes along the LAC over the past 25 years have inured the world and never raised alarm. China's incursions into Ladakh would, therefore, be like the "Balakot boost” for Xi, which would instantly create public sentiment in his favour. The timing too is perfect. With India's COVID-19 cases and deaths rising every day and yet to peak, India cannot risk a major conflict. China's massive buildup behind the LAC further averts the risk of a major escalation. 

'Nibble away Indian territory'

China is sure that India would initiate back-room talks and negotiate some face-saving device to disengage. But, there lies the danger. China would retain whatever ingresses it has made by arguing the "disputed status of the LAC". China with its "salami-slicing" tactics over the years has managed to occupy several hundred square kilometres of Indian land all across the LAC, details of which former ambassador P Stobdan published in a recent article.  In 1999, when Indian troops pulled out for the Kargil conflict, China occupied that land and constructed a road over it. By deliberately stalling the demarcation of the LAC, China continues to nibble away Indian territory.  

Only on two occasions, robust Indian ripostes had thwarted the Chinese designs and they could not retaliate. These were the Sikkim clash in 1967 and the Sumdrong Chu episode in 1986-87. We must not allow China to retain its ingresses, which is tantamount to freezing a new status quo that is unfavourable to us. China understands and respects only the language of power and a determined response, as was amply demonstrated by tiny Vietnam in 1979.

If India seeks to be a major geopolitical player, IT MUST ACT ACCORDINGLY.

(The author is a retired brigadier from the Indian Army and now a Professor of International Business Strategy and Management, Charlotte, USA. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at 30foxtrot@gmail)