BRAND MODI TAKING A HIT !

Even though PM Modi has no political challenger, he is not his usual combative self and seems guarded. His public persona has been built on five pillars — strong and decisive leader; a man of development; global statesman; a fakir who keeps his family away to work for others; and a ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’ (Emperor of Hindu Hearts). The first four pillars appear to be under stress.

IN A TWO FRONT WAR, INDIA CANNOT COUNT ON THE US

The potential of a two-front war with Pakistan and China was recognised in 2009 by the then Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor. The debate regarding India’s capability to fight a war in which there is full collusion between China and Pakistan, has generally remained inconclusive.

INDIA - CHINA: DIPLOMATIC, ECONOMIC AND MILITARY OPTIONS AS STALEMATE CONTINUES

The disengagement process in Eastern Ladakh is at a stalemate.  Chinese troops appear  reluctant to step back from 2 out of the 4 friction points. China seems to believe that a limited war-like thrust into India is a viable option. In the circumstance, experts weigh India’s diplomatic, economic and military options.

CHINA -PAKISTAN NEXUS: POSSIBILITY OF A TWO FRONT WAR

Army chief General Paravane’s suggestion of not ruling out the possibility of a “two front war” indicates the  seriousness of the current face-off with China. Pakistan has moved 20,000 soldiers to the Line of Control (LoC). The move matches a similar deployment authorised by Beijing along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Ladakh region in June.

ANTI-CHINA COALITION IN THE MAKING

India is garnering support from the US, Japan, Australia, Britain and the EU, all of whom appear to be reviewing their policies and stances to counter growing Chinese aggressiveness.  Some have called it the making of a probable informal anti-China global alliance. India closely watches this process even as it sheds its reluctance to be part of any grouping.

IRAN DROPS INDIA FROM CHABAHAR RAIL PROJECT: SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS

Iran has dropped India from the 628 km Chabahar-Zahedan rail project. The rail link is important for the Chabahar project that has geostrategic importance. Connected by sea lanes to ports on India’s west coast, Chabahar would form the fulcrum of India’s outreach to Russia and Central Asia, enhancing connectivity, energy supplies and trade.

CONGRESS: REVOLT OF THE YOUNG LEADERS

Sachin Pilot’s revolt against the Rajasthan chief minister is the second by a youth leader. Earlier, Jyotiraditya Scindia successfully brought down the Madhya Pradesh government after defecting  to the BJP.  Both Scindia and Pilot were aspirants representing the youth in the party. Late fathers of both were senior Congress leaders.  BJP will fish in troubled waters.

A BADLY EXECUTED LOCKDOWN: SOCIAL-ECONOMIC COSTS

In terms of numbers, India is now at the third place, behind the US and Brazil. Even in terms of COVID deaths per million population, that is, the Crude Mortality Rate, India is doing worse than China, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Malaysia and many other nations, including most of Africa. The study discusses the impact on poverty and consequently, the socio-economic costs.

INDIA - CHINA: A CALIBRATED ECONOMIC POLICY RESPONSE NEEDED

Economists emphasise the dangers of a total import ban. There is a need to draw a clear line between goods that can be banned and the ones that can't be. Banning Chinese machinery or intermediate goods, for example, will hurt the Indian economy deeply.  India needs to differentiate between low value and high value imports. In the long run, only a strong economy will counter China best.

INDIA - CHINA AGREE TO DISENGAGE; NO GUARANTEE FOR PEACE

There are enormous disengagement challenges to India’s goal of restoring status quo ante as on April.  These include China’s unpredictability and mutual lack of trust. The PLA will not give away its advantage positions easily. But unlike ASEAN, India has stood upto China’s hegemonic designs.  India however, is trapped in reaction-mode to China’s aggression.

A TWO FRONT WAR SCENARIO EMERGING

At this juncture, in the view of  military experts, both India and  China could be preparing for the worst-case scenario of a limited war or, in the case of  India, even for two front war. The study examines China’s probable war plans, its strategic alignment with Pakistan, increased activity along the Pakistan border, the possibility of a two front war and India’s ability to handle it.

INDIA’S STRONG MESSAGING TO CHINA: RELATIONS CAN ‘NO LONGER BE BUSINESS-AS-USUAL’

India, for the first time, strongly conveyed to China that the border build-up had a “larger context” and that PLA’s behaviour “this year” was a shift from the past. China is also not mincing words.