GROWTH AND FISCAL INDICTORS DO NOT LOOK GOOD

India’s growth in the first quarter of 20-21 at -23.9% is one of the highest contractions globally. The annual projections also indicate contraction of the nominal GDP growth for 2020-21. The study examines revenue and fiscal policy challenges; that GDP contraction in Q2 may have slowed to 12%: and that economies of States equally bad.

ECONOMIC RECOVERY: MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN

After the National Statistical Office (NSO) reported that GDP in the April-June period had shrunk by 24%, there have been many downward revisions of growth outlooks. The study argues why a much deeper hit this fiscal appears certain now; and the monetary and fiscal  measures that are needed for revival of the economy.

AGRICULTURE REFORM: PROS, CONS AND POLITICAL RISKS

The three important farm bills that seek to deregulate the sale of agricultural produce were passed in parliament amid scenes of chaos. Outside parliament, farmer organisations have protested. In the process, BJP has annoyed one of its oldest partners, SAD (Akali Dal).

INDIA - CHINA: DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY ENGAGEMENTS FAIL TO DELIVER

Despite talks, there has been little progress on ground with China expanding military infrastructure along LAC.

LABOUR REFORMS: COMBINING CONTRADICTORY LAWS INTO FOUR CODES

Parliament passed three Bills to usher in a labour regime that promises employers a less stressful hiring environment. The study presents the salient feature of the Bills; reactions/arguments of labour economists and industry; significance of the the industrial relations code; whether the reforms will boost industry’s competitiveness etc

ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROSPECTS HAVE GONE FROM BAD TO WORSE

With India becoming a global coronavirus hotspot, economic recovery prospects have gone from bad to worse. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das says economic recovery is likely to be gradual. Economists and global institutions like the Asian Development Bank have cut India’s growth projections by upto 14.8%.

INDIA - CHINA: MIXED SIGNALS AFTER MOSCOW CONSENSUS

Talks between Jaishankar and Wang in Moscow reiterated the need to reduce tensions and abide by agreements and suggested the resumption of dialogue at the civil, military and political levels. But relief was short-lived as the individual statements by both sides seemed to undercut the feel good joint statement.

‘MANAGING’ CHINA: NEED FOR A DIFFERENT APPROACH

Managing China has become important as it has amassed almost 52,000 troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh. Indian forces mirror this deployment. The study examines the relevance of the old policy framework and future possibilities; need to invest more in the neighbourhood; use of the Tibet card through the use of Special Frontier Force (SFF) etc

CHINA MONITORING OVER 10,000 INDIANS

Zhenhua Data Information Technology Co. Limited - with links to the Chinese government, intelligence, military and security agencies, is monitoring over 10,000 Indians and organisations.

INDIA - CHINA: DANGEROUS SITUATION DEVELOPING ALONG LAC

The first firing incident in 45 years has created an unprecedented situation along the border.

ALARMING CONTRACTION IN GROWTH: DEBATE ON STATE OF ECONOMY

Terming the 23.9 per cent contraction in the economy as "alarming" former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan has said the  numbers will "probably be worse when we get estimates of the damage in the informal sector.” Even as the government identifies the “non-salaried  middle class and small businesses” as the target audience for a second round of stimulus, the study presents ex

STEEPEST GDP CONTRACTION ON RECORD: FUTURE CHALLENGES

The economy shrank by 23.9 per cent in the first quarter ended June 30 marking the steepest decline ever. This is the first official data-led indication of contracting real / nominal GDP, GVA etc.