Dhaka: With the country moving closer to the 100,000-mark of Covid-19 cases, healthcare experts in Bangladesh are yet to know when the outbreak will reach its peak.

Health officials predicting the course of the pandemic earlier said the outbreak would likely reach its peak by the end of May, only to shift to mid-June, after which there would be a decline in infections.

But the prediction did not match the reality in terms of infection rate. Every day the country is experiencing an explosion of cases and rising number of deaths.

The country's tally of confirmed Covid-19 cases is now close to 100,000 as health authorities reported a record 3,862 fresh cases in the 24 hours till yesterday afternoon.

The total number of infections now stands at 94,481.

In the same period, 53 people have died from Covid-19, said the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS). This is the highest number of Covid-19 deaths recorded in a day so far in the country.

The death toll is currently 1,262.

Experts said that unless the transmission of the virus is stopped through active measures, the outbreak will continue.

Based on experiences of other countries, they also said the nature of the novel coronavirus is not like any other virus as it undergoes changes every day.

There has been no instance in any country of the virus going away after reaching the peak.

In many countries, infection rates rose again even after reaching the peak and witnessing a downward trend.

"There is only one option to tackle the virus and that is taking active measures -- maintaining physical distance, early detection, contact tracing and treating infected patients in isolation," Prof Mushtuq Hussain, consultant of the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, told The Daily Star yesterday.

Prof Saif Ullah Munshi, chairman of virology at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, said, "Even after full implementation of the zone-wise approach, it will take a minimum of two weeks to observe a downward trend in transmission."

Echoing the virologist, Prof Abul Kalam Azad, director general of the Directorate General of Health Services, said, "We are observing a static trend in infection for the last few days. If it continues for a week, then we may see a downward trend."

Official data shows that the growth rate for Covid-19 infection in the country is now 1.25, which means every confirmed patient is infecting 1.25 persons on an average.

DAILY UPDATE
At the daily virtual briefing yesterday, Prof Nasima Sultana, additional director general (admin) of the DGHS, said 17,214 samples were tested in 61 labs across the country in 24 hours till yesterday afternoon.

On the other hand, 2,237 Covid-19 patients recovered in the same period, taking the total number of recoveries to 36,264, she added.

The current recovery rate is 38.38 percent, the DGHS official said, adding that 635 people were put in isolation over those 24 hours.

Of the dead, 47 were male and six female, she said adding that 30 were from Dhaka, 14 from Chattogram, four from Rajshahi, three from Khulna, one from Barishal and another was from Mymensingh divisions.

Of them, one was aged between 11 and 20, three between 21 and 30, two between 31 and 40, nine between 41 and 50, 19 between 51 and 60, 10 between 61 and 70, eight between 71 and 80 and another was between 81-90, Dr Nasima said.

21-DAY LOCKDOWN
The government will impose a 21-day lockdown in red-zoned areas instead of the earlier announced 14-day one.

"The red zone status will be lifted when the situation improves," said a press release issued by the DGHS on Monday.

The residents in red zones will have to work from home and all kinds of public gatherings will be restricted in those areas, it said.

However, healthcare centres, hospitals and institutions with emergency services will remain open.

Adequate testing arrangements will be made for Covid-19 suspects and people who test positive will be kept in home or institutional quarantine.

Only grocery shops and pharmacies of these zones will remain open, while restaurants and food shops will remain open for home delivery services only.

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