While global attention was focused on the conflict in Ukraine, a cruise missile without a warhead streamed across the plains of northern India on March 9,  landing in Mian Chanu in Khanewal district of Pakistan. Pakistani news reports showed the missile’s flight path being tracked by the Pakistanis from Sirsa in Haryana. On crossing the international border, it flew over Pakistan for a distance of 124 km in a little over three minutes.   

This accidental firing had the potential to lead to retaliatory measures that could have spiraled out of control. Fortunately, Pakistan exercised restraint which may also be due to the fact that we have a ‘No First Use Policy’ in place. 

It has been clarified by the Indian government that it was an error or, to be more specific, a technical malfunction that led to the accidental firing of a missile. The issue remains that those entrusted with weapons are trained both in their use as well as safety and are most aware of the consequences of what can happen if things go wrong.  

High-level inquiry 

There are elaborate standard operating procedures, policies and orders that govern both storage and maintenance of sensitive precision-guided weapons. Apart from this, there are water-tight checks and balances which govern their firing; numerous safety measures and instructions are meticulously adhered to when actual firing takes place to ensure the fall of the shot remains within the designated safety arc and includes advanced notifications regarding the flight path. 

An inquiry will examine the procedures and protocols in place as also the cause for the technical malfunction. Operations, maintenance and inspections are conducted following standard operating procedures. These will be evaluated. Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh told Parliament on March 15: “(The) Government has taken serious note of the incident. A formal high level inquiry has been ordered. The inquiry would determine the exact cause of the said accident.” 

The lens will focus on the triad of the user, manufacturer and designer. Knowing the services, suitable action will be taken and remedial measures will quickly be enforced.

After the incident, Major General Babar Iftikhar, the Director General of Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations, said the next day. "On March 9, at 6:43 pm, a high-speed flying object was picked up inside the Indian territory by Air Defence Operations Centre of the Pakistan Air Force. He added that the object suddenly manoeuvred towards Pakistani territory from its initial course and violated Pakistan's air space, ultimately falling near Mian Channu at 6:50 pm.  

Pakistani restraint 

"It was a supersonic flying object, most probably a missile, but it was certainly unarmed." Though the journalists did try to coax him, he spoke in a restrained manner. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan told a rally on March 13: "We could have responded …. But we observed restraint.” 

The Indian Defence Ministry on March 11 regretted the incident and said the accidental firing took place during routine maintenance due to a technical malfunction. “The Government has taken a serious view and ordered a high-level court of enquiry. While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of relief that there has been no loss of life due to the accident.” 

In a recent ARTRAC-USI Seminar on “Strategic Communication and the Information Domain” held on March 4, Shekhar Gupta, Editor of The Print, talked about the poor manner in which the Balakot surgical strikes were handled by the Indian Defence Ministry. General Syed Ata Hasnain, an Indian Army veteran, gave the example when it came to handling Covid-19 and the role played by the Information and Broadcasting Ministry. The contrasting styles of handling sensitive issues clearly emerged. We need to control the strategic narrative. I am sure our dissemination of information in the open domain need not be reactive.

In reaction to the Indian statement, the Pakistani Foreign office said: “The grave nature of the incident raises several fundamental questions regarding security protocols and technical safeguards against accidental or unauthorized launch of missiles in a nuclearised environment.” They also sought a joint probe. 

Importance of strategic communication 

Ironically, a few days after the seminar, which attracted Gen Raj Shukla, Gen Sanjiv Langer, Gen B.K. Sharma, Maroof Raza, Nitin Gokhale and Prof Sreeram Chaulia, who all spoke on the paradigm of strategic communications in the context of the rapidly transforming landscape of national security, we continue to allow our adversary to leverage this domain. 

There is a need to establish the value of information including its dissemination as a critical metric in strategic military affairs. Strategic communications should be viewed as an element of national power and, as such, we need to have a synchronized holistic approach.

September 1983 will be remembered for two incidents; the first was the Soviet Union Air Defence Sukhoi SU-15 interceptor shooting down a Korean Air Lines flight 007 on September 1, mistaking it for a US spy plane as it accidentally crossed into Soviet airspace. This resulted in the death of all 269 occupants including an American Congressman. They initially denied knowledge of the incident but then admitted to shooting as they thought it to be on a spy mission.

The second was on September 26 that year when Soviet early-warning radars sounded the alarm for what seemed to be an attack by US ICBMs. A false alert at a time of intense nervousness, but Lt Col Petrov, the then Chief Air Defence Officer at the Oko nuclear early-warning system, figured that the radars had made some mistakes and did not trigger off the alarms precipitating a retaliatory nuclear strike.  

Fortunately, none of these two incidents led to escalation even though tensions were heightened after the first incident. 

Human intelligence over Artificial Intelligence 

Sushant Singh in the Deccan Herald has mentioned that the missile in question got accidentally fired during an inspection by the Directorate of Air Safety Inspection (DASI).

In the Indian context, the short distances and the consequent limited response time to a missile launch by either side, any misinterpretation could trigger self-defensive counter-measures with grave consequences. 

There is no doubt a huge level of responsibility on the shoulders of the men responsible for manning such systems. Human intelligence has again saved the day. One shudders to imagine what could have been the outcome if the retaliatory measures were based on Artificial Intelligence. 

Fortunately, Pakistan never went ballistic and their reaction has averted what could have potentially led to a disastrous escalation.   

The protagonist is the missile and the dilemmas it generates both in terms of security provided and the existential threat it creates. There is thus no doubt that we need sanity to reign in case of mistakes while at the same time ensuring that there are safety protocols in place that prevent such incidents. 

The court of inquiry is bound to go into all the issues and its recommendations are bound to instill a level of confidence regarding the procedures and protocols in place and the safety and security of this weapon system. 

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)