Sushila Karki, Nepal’s Interim Prime Minister In her first public comments, said, “We have to work according to the thinking of Gen Z. What this group is demanding is an end to corruption, good governance and economic equality.” Referring to protesters killed as “martyrs”, she announced Rs 10 lakh compensation to each, plus free funerals, treatment of injured and assistance to disabled. According to Chief Secretary Eaknarayan Aryal, at least 72 people were killed and 191 injured in two days of protests.

With elections scheduled in March 2026, how much corruption cleanup Karki can achieve only time will tell; especially high and mighty politicians like KP Sharma Oli and his predecessors, given the sluggish pace of law (as in India) and every important state institution, together with files and records, reduced to ashes. Political alignments in the run up to elections will be another hurdle – corruption in those making promises to advance Gen Z interests?

Digital Media Control

Hami Nepal, a popular NGO, run by Sudan Gurung, is funded and controlled by Barbara Foundation (run by Leftist Sanduk Ruit and lawyer Mohna Ansari defending radical Islamists. Then there is rapper Balendra Shah (nicknamed Balen), 35-year-old Kathmandu’s mayor, who was also seen as a key contender for interim PM but chose to endorse Karki. He reportedly has a map of Greater Nepal in his office that shows parts of India's Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Himachal Pradesh. Being a Gen Z idol, Shah will likely have a major say in the Karki government, He could be added once the current arrangement of four-member cabinet under the interim prime minister is expanded, Also, he may even contest and win in the parliamentary elections scheduled in March 2026.

With the CIA controlling the digital media and NGOs what could be better for the CIA-ISI nexus with hashtags like #PoliticiansNepoBabyNepal, #NepoKids, and #NepoBaby on social media inciting the revolt, as well as anti-India toolkit with hashtags like #BackoffIndia and #GoBackIndia running since India’s prolonged blockade of the India-Nepal border during 2015-2016 that pushed Nepal into China’s lap. Nepalese social media is divided over India’s approach towards Nepal. About 1/5th Nepalese (aged 15-24) unemployed and GDP per capita GDP USD1,447 according to the World Bank, makes the task easy for the CIA-ISI.

After former Pakistani Lt Col Mohammad Habib went missing in Nepal (2017) and Pakistan’s Prime Minister SK Abbasi’s Nepal visit in 2018, organizations in Nepal like Tehfuzul Madrasa became safe houses for use by ISI and LeT to target India. Nepal provided protection to ISI-backed terrorists and was becoming an "ISI Control Centre", according to the Indian Intelligence Bureau. Muslim population is 5.10% of Nepal’s approximately 30.6 million population as of early 2025, the bulk of whom live in the Terai region.  The news that the Taliban plan to transit through India to interact with Muslims in Nepal must be treated with caution.

SD Muni, covering the India-Nepal backchannel exchanges at the highest-level during Congress/BJP rules in India, writes that Nepal’s King Gyanendra staged a coup in 2005 against Indian advice; taking direct control, detaining all  political leaders and imposing emergency – facilitating the political parties getting together with the Maoists                                   (https://www.rediff.com/news/special/indias-untold-nepal-stories/20240311.htm).

It is more than evident that the US doesn’t seek direct war with India. Instead, it wants to destabilize South Asia to check Chinese influence, including in Balochistan (Pakistan) and Myanmar, as much as possible. But, more importantly, the US wants India boxed in from all directions to make it more compliant; the coups in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and now Nepal indicates this, including calls from Bangladesh and Nepal claiming parts of Indian territory. China views India in the US camp, despite the India-US trade row and knowing eventually it would get sorted out.

Growing Chinese Tentacles

Finally, China will continue to increase its influence in Nepal and the region, notwithstanding disruptive activities of the US, given that it already has Pakistan sitting in its lap. For India, the situation will remain tense, as it shares a thousand-mile open border with Nepal permitting free movement of people. The coup in Nepal came as a surprise to India and Indian intelligence agencies, just like the coups in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh! The ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy has been reduced to a slogan, with little Indian influence in SAARC and China reportedly planning a new SAARC that would also include Afghanistan. It is time our political establishment and advisors look themselves in the mirror before adversities force out the hot gas.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.)