When the coronavirus started to spread from China, the world turned its eyes toward South Asia, thinking it to be the next hub, with the potential of reporting millions of deaths. And there is nothing wrong in this thought, as there are many reasons cementing this belief. South Asia has a huge population and does not have a well-developed healthcare system. Here the poverty rate is high and nutrition levels are low.

But the countries of South Asia - Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan – understood the danger and took it seriously. They adopted precautionary measures like going into lockdown. India is still in lockdown since March 24; Nepal extended its lockdown till May 7; while Bangladesh, including other South Asia nations, is in similar lockdown. Now even Pakistan has declared a complete lockdown. This lockdown, social distancing measures and pro-active response of the governments of this region helped these countries to counter the virus.

Looking at the US and Europe, conditions in South Asia appear relatively better. The US is suffering from the biggest crisis in its history with virus cases reaching over 1 million and death toll crossing 57,000. The condition of Europe is also very painful. In Italy, the death toll has crossed 27,000, while in Spain it is 23,000. In France, over 23,000 people have died till April 28. Europe is now turning its playgrounds into graveyards due to lack of space in the existing one.

Surely, this means that if the virus had entered South Asia first, it would have created more havoc than the US and Europe. Countries such as Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan where the cities are densely packed and any negligence could have caused a large number of deaths, the impact would have been much more devastating. So what are those strategies that have so far saved these nations?

Time and management emerged as the two main important factors in the fight against this deadly virus. South Asia got time to plan their strategies as it was able to learn from other western countries on how to respond to this unknown enemy. The number of cases in South Asian countries is well under control like Bhutan that has only seven cases so far, with no report of a casualty. It is the same with Nepal, which has 52 cases. The risk is in three countries - Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. In the region, India has reported the maximum number of cases. As of April 28, the virus cases have reached 30,000, and the death toll has touched 950. However, when counted to per capita, the situation is still under control as India is home to 1.3 billion people.

India has so far responded to the emerging situation in a very responsible way. It has also shown the way to rest of South Asia. From providing treatment to supplying food; the efforts are commendable. India is helping many nations by supplying critical medicines, including Hydroxychloroquine.

Demography also favours South Asia. India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are among the youngest countries in the world, with 62.5 percent of its population in the age group of 15-59 years. India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have experienced relatively high economic growth for several years so it will not be such a difficult task for them to cope up when compared to other parts of the world.

However, there are certain issues that are escalating the problem or may adversely impact the efforts made till now. India has porous borders with neighbours such as Bangladesh and Nepal and that makes it more susceptible to the spread of infection. These borders are sealed, but there are many people who are trying to cross it through illegal means. On the one hand, Pakistan is not stopping its terror game. It has increased its insurgency activities against India, instead of tackling with coronavirus in its land. 

South Asia has to face severe economic impacts. Economic growth will be zero or may go negative. Many private-sector jobs will vanish. There will be a huge impact on the lives of the people, who are self-employed or in petty jobs. Around 90 percent of the population of South Asia comes under this ambit. The infrastructural project will get delayed or many may be canceled. All the countries have to come forward in this regard. Self-development alone cannot build a system. Mutual support is required. Cooperation is the key and that will help each other to maintain the stability of the region.

There is huge migration within the South Asian countries. These mostly, include the labourers and small businessmen, who now have got stuck in their places of work and have been rendered unemployed due to the lockdown. The governments must provide them proper assistance. They want to return back homes but it is not possible at least for some time. But as the number of cases will decrease focus should be given to get them back to work.

South Asia should prepare itself from the upcoming dangers. It could be an epicenter for the next outbreak. That outbreak may be more severe than the present one. When that outbreak will strike, there would be uncountable deaths. Lessons should be learned from this pandemic. The focus should be given to healthcare.  South Asia's healthcare system should be developed in such a way that it is accessible to everyone.

Public spending on health in India and other South Asian countries is barely 1 percent of their GDP, as compared to developed countries like France and Germany which spends 10 percent. The gap is very large. However, only spending doesn’t work, as proved in the case of COVID-19. There needs to be a serious discussion on resetting the priorities. There is a need to invest in greater scientific research in the South Asian region so that disease control measures could be taken up in the right earnest.   

(The author is a Research Analyst at The Kootneeti, India. He can be reached at shubhamin94@gmail.com)