The situation in Manipur has turned more violent after the reasons why peace eludes the region were  outlined in stark detail (https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/why-peace-continues-elude-manipur). According to Manipur Police, Kuki militants attacked two villages in the Koutruk area of Imphal West using RPGs and dropped grenades from drones (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9_bXi-TRmw). One woman succumbed to bullet injuries and her eight-year old daughter’s arm was injured, while two police personal and three civilians were injured in the attack. They also set fire to five houses, one car and eight two-wheelers.

In response, the Manipur administration reportedly deployed additional central forces, 7 Manipur Rifles, police commandos, and other police personnel to prevent further violence. Manipur Police has appointed a “high-level” committee to probe the drone attacks.

Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh posted on X: “Dropping bombs on civilian populations and security forces using drones is an act of terrorism. The Manipur state administration treats such unprovoked attacks seriously and will take the appropriate action to combat acts of terrorism against the local indigenous community. Manipur’s people will stand together against hatred, divisiveness, and secession, and we reject all forms of violence.”

Apparently, the state-encouraged ethnic cleansing is turning around full circle, with Meitei beginning to come on the receiving end. There is outrage in social media  (https://x.com/LicypriyaK/status/1830321178684043442?t=-TLrBoZv__r9idXmtESVUg&s=03), with some saying it is high time Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Manipur to see the situation for himself.

Latest trigger for violence

Alleging that the about  60,000 central forces in Manipur are mute spectators, BJP MLA Rajkumar Imo Singh of Manipur has written to the Home Minister Amit Shah saying if these forces cannot stop violence, they should be withdrawn.

In early August this year, hundreds of Kuki-Zo women in Kangpokpi District of Manipur “cried, prayed and pleaded” with Assam Rifles not to leave their village ‘Gamgiphai’, and staged a 12-hour sit-in after they came to know that the Assam Rifles personnel deployed in the peripheral area were being shifted to Churachandpur by the state government (https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/kuki-women-plead-with-assam-rifles-troops-to-not-leave-village-near-imphal-west-in-manipur/cid/1956553).

The trigger now may have come with relocating the Assam Rifles from Churachandpur District to Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur demanding withdrawal of the SoO agreement from all 25 Kuki-Zo-Hmar tribes, the Ministry of Home Affairs proposing the removal of SoO camps close to the Imphal Valley, and the Manipur administration’s nexus with the otherwise banned outfit Kanglei Yawol Kanba Lup (KYKL).

More violence can be expected with the Kuki-Zo village volunteers warning in a video message that Meitei militants who have infiltrated into the Kuki villages named in the video must leave in three days or else face eviction (https://youtu.be/THfzI044Nzs?feature=shared). This is a clear indication of more violence to come. The Naga, who had warned the state government to leave them alone after incidents of attacks against them and their families, may also get drawn into the expanding civil war.

In recent months there have been reports of drone parts being smuggled into Manipur. As for modern arms, the global market is flooded with them. Why would China not exploit the situation? It may be recalled that when the US had troops in Afghanistan, China provided advisors to the Taliban as well as arms including shoulder-fired MANPADS.

It is also being opined that the Manipur situation is aggravated by America’s National Endowment for Democracy (https://www.youtube.com/live/n7hzzGWZ9c4?si=KoYJk-dIWu8zj1Hw). There is no doubt merit in this, with veteran US Marines operating in Myanmar and especially after the US is said to have had a hand in the coup in Bangladesh recently.

In November 2023, Imphal airport was shut after an unidentified object was detected overhead. Indian Air Force planes launched on a search mission could not locate the object. But the object in question certainly did not come from outer space. 

The irony is that Manipur is where the Chinese and American interests coincide against India. But the need is to look at ourselves in the mirror. If we provide a readymade asymmetric battlefield to overt or covert inimical forces, why would they not exploit it?  

More clashes expected

Seilen Haikop, spokesperson and senior leader of the Kuki National Organization (KNO), told the media that the Union Home Ministry is yet to list and convey the violations of ground rules committed by Kuki-Zo. He also said the Kuki-Zo-Hmar Groups are not “secessionists”; “their demand for a political solution of a separate administration in Manipur was within the Constitution, and they should not be labeled anti-India.”  

Manipur appears to be on the verge of a civil war, where a mere fact-finding commission may not suffice. Clashes between the Kuki-Zo and the state-nurtured Arambai Tenggol-led Meitei militants appear certain.

Re-imposition of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in Imphal Valley would make sense. However, even the imposition of President Rule in Manipur has become a prestige issue with the BJP-led NDA government. It is time the prime minister, home minister and the national security advisor get directly involved before the Manipur situation develops into a full-fledged civil war.   

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)