Renewed Israeli airstrikes in Gaza following balloons with incendiary devices flown from the Palestine side into Israel have brought to naught US President Joe Biden’s efforts to engineer an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and prospects of the two-nation state. The incendiary balloons were a deliberate act knowing inevitable Israeli retaliation. The aim perhaps was to do down the Palestinian National Authority and elevate ground support for the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The Israeli military said it had struck military compounds and a rocket launch site and was ready for a variety of scenarios including the resumption of hostilities.

The sixth round of talks on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal, has concluded in Vienna. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, referring to the progress made, said the remaining important issues require serious decisions in the capitals, especially in the negotiating countries. He said an agreement could be reached in the next round of talks, although it could not be guaranteed.

Israel’s new Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has cautioned the US and other nations, seeking to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran, following the election of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi as Iran’s president. Bennett said, “A regime of brutal hangmen (an apparent reference to Raisi’s past as judge when he reportedly handed out death sentences to a large number of political prisoners) must never be allowed to have weapons of mass destruction. Israel’s position will not change on this.”

Further progress on the JCPOA talks is only possible after Raisi assumes the presidency in August. Meanwhile, Iran’s only nuclear power plant at Bushehr has remained shut for the past few days. Iran says it is for ‘technical overhaul’ but an Israeli cyber attack can hardly be ruled out.

The summit between Biden and Russian president Vladimir Putin in Geneva was a damp squib notwithstanding the diplomatic talk and the two leaders’ mutual appreciation at the press conference. The only gain was the return of respective ambassadors and prospects of future discussions on cybersecurity and for limiting nuclear weapons.

If Biden sought common ground with Putin to sway Russia in a future US-China confrontation, it was hardly likely with the sanctions over the past few years. The recent revelation of China-Russia jointly launching six lunar missions in 2021-2025 to build an international lunar base should be enough indication.  

Taliban on rampage

The Taliban, meanwhile, is on a rampage in Afghanistan. Inputs from Afghan intelligence services on June 15 revealed that an offensive by large Taliban groups in Faryab province and some other northern provinces of Afghanistan is being led by retired Pakistani army officers.  This is also confirmed by sources close to former Afghanistan vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum who is organizing the anti-Taliban militia. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has accused the US of failing to curb terrorism in Afghanistan.

As US troops continue to leave Afghanistan facing an enormous surge in violence and Taliban claims to have captured more than 40 districts in the past one month, Biden is set to host President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, Chairman of Afghanistan's High Council for National Reconciliation, in the White House on June 25.

A statement by the White House reads: “The United States is committed to supporting the Afghan people by providing diplomatic, economic, and humanitarian assistance to support the Afghan people, including Afghan women, girls, and minorities. The United States will remain deeply engaged with the government of Afghanistan to ensure the country never again becomes a haven for terrorist groups who pose a threat to the U.S. homeland."

This is no solace for Afghanistan after being abandoned unceremoniously by the US leaving it in a state of critical instability. Taliban has announced it remains committed to peace talks but wants a "genuine Islamic system" that would make provisions for women's rights in line with cultural traditions and religious rules. This indicates the end of democracy, establishment of an Islamic Emirate, rule of Sharia and women’s 'rights' as accorded during Taliban rule before the US invasion in 2001.

China’s gains

The US will realize its strategic blunder of surrendering Afghanistan to the Taliban after the entire Af-Pak-Iran region comes under Chinese influence. China need not station troops in Afghanistan like the US, but the Taliban may be amenable to the Afghan Islamic Army being trained and armed by China.

More importantly, China will extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan and beyond to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, linking up Central Asia and Eurasia. Biden's Build Back Better World (B3BW) global infrastructure initiative announced at the recent G7 summit as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will be a non-starter in these regions.

According to US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Biden will seek to engage Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G20 summit in October scheduled to be held in Italy.  However, given the state of US-China relations, the outcome will likely be no different from the Biden-Putin summit. Significantly, efforts of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to talk to his Chinese counterpart have been ignored by Beijing.

Dong Jingwei, a top-ranking Chinese official. reportedly defected to the US in February and handed over evidence to the Biden administration on the Wuhan lab leak. This led to China obliterating all evidence in Wuhan and the lab website  too has been shut down. Whether China can be nailed for the virus leak is questionable because China does not respect judgments by the International Court of Justice. In factBuild , China has demanded that lab facilities in the US be probed for the virus leak.

(The writer is an Indian Army veteran. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at prakashkatoch7@gmail.com)