The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a banned militant group active in the northwestern part of Pakistan, has claimed 46 attacks on the country’s security forces since the one-month ceasefire, brokered by the Afghan Taliban, came to end on 9 December. Increased hostility between the Pakistani forces and the TTP and the Afghan Taliban, however, is a pointer to a fast-evolving situation in the region. 

The recent escalation in fighting comes amid the failing peace talks between the militant group and the government. On Thursday, at least four security personnel were killed, when fighting broke out between militants and the government forces in North Waziristan, a mountain region along the border with Afghanistan, reported local journalists.

The TTP, also known as the Pakitan Taliban, took responsibility for the attacks. 

Waziristan region along the porous Pakistan-Afghanistan border— the Durand Line is not recognized by the Afghan Taliban— has traditionally been a stronghold of the TTP, with the militant group enjoying considering presence. Soon after the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, the government started peace talks with the militant group. 

The Haqqani Network, one of the most powerful factions of the Afghan Taliban, holds considerable influence over the TTP, a group that shares fraternal and ideologically ties with the Afghan Taliban. The talks resulted in the release of hundreds of TTP prisoners—though the Pakistan government has not publicly admitted it—in exchange for a month-long ceasefire.

Reports suggested the TTP demanded autonomy in the northwestern tribal region and the implementation of Sharia laws—both of which were reportedly rejected by the government. As a result, the progress remains stalled. Moreover, within Pakistan, the government faced fierce criticism for initiating talks with the militant group, responsible for killing over 10,000 Pakistani nationals, without proper consultations with domestic political players. 

Furthermore, the last few weeks witnessed a sudden spike in hostility, not only between the TTP and Pakistan but also between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan. The border region in Afghanistan, where the TTP enjoys sanctuaries under the Afghan Taliban, saw intense shelling by the Pakistani military. 

On its side, the Afghan Taliban also conducted counterattacks and stopped the border fencing by the Pakistan security forces.

All these developments, if seen together with the recent statements —quite critical of Pakistan—by some Afghan Taliban leaders, point into one direction -  ties between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan are evolving, if not deteriorating rapidly.  

The continued international isolation of the Taliban regime, the increasing hostility between Pakistan and the TTP, and the growing political resistance within Afghanistan may fast unravel the ties that Pakistan had built, at great cost, over the last two decades with the Taliban in Afghanistan. 

And, if that happens, it would dramatically change the regional dynamics that are struggling to find equilibrium after the fall of Kabul. 

(SAM)