The brewing agitation in Maharashtra state challenging the 2024 assembly election results that gave an overwhelming majority to the BJP (in an alliance with factions of the Shiv Sena led by outgoing Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP led by outgoing Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar) is more serious than mere election denialism at work. It is true that gauging the electoral mood is a complex exercise, both for pollsters running numbers and people reading the mood in the field. But even with these caveats, Maharashtra presents a special challenge this time. 

This is because there is no denying that the mood of the electorate was and remains very different from the results delivered in the just concluded 2024 Assembly elections. There is merit in the simple argument that this sentiment was obvious, visible and firmly leaning in favour of an understandable and expected sympathy vote for the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (SHS-UBT), whose government was toppled after he made bold to break away from the BJP and challenged the BJP attempt to browbeat him into submission.

The battle had all the makings of the story of Maharashtrian pride standing up to the sultanate from New Delhi, creating some tensions that in the normal course would have played out in favour of the alliance led  by the Shiv Sena of Uddhav Thackeray. This is because it was a given that the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena was the backstabber in the game, coupled with Ajit Pawar of the NCP betraying his uncle, the veteran Sharad Pawar, to join ranks with the BJP. 

Sentiments at odds with results

There is enough material to lead many an observer to argue that people did not like the way the Thackeray government was broken, with the MLAs in hiding in the BJP-ruled states of Gujarat and Assam, compounded by the way the Thackeray-Sena symbol was taken away, and the way Pawar and his overwhelming influence was sought to be undermined. None of this would fetch the BJP any votes ordinarily, even accounting for its superior money power, much-touted campaign execution or the RSS ground support. In fact, even those inclined the BJP way are hard put to explain away the BJP hammer used to knock off Thackeray and Pawar. The only limited leeway that sympathisers tend to give to Shinde or Ajit Pawar is that they were coerced into breaking ranks, under alleged threat of action by the Enforcement Directorate which is by now widely seen as working for the BJP. This only adds to negativity for the BJP.

It is well understood in Maharashtra that the toppling operation was led and masterminded by the top BJP leadership from New Delhi. It is also not deniable that there was extreme bitterness between the BJP leadership and Uddhav Thackeray as chief minister because he chose to break away from the BJP and team up with the Congress. It is an admitted position that the BJP was out to teach him a lesson. Given that the BJP leadership with its roots in Gujarat has been seen as directly caught in this souring of relations and bitter exchanges, there was a clear Maharashtra-Gujarat divide that became one of the important parts of the campaign by the Shiv Sena.

Add to that the Gujarat-based Gautam Adani group, which has been building real estate projects in Mumbai, has bagged a controversial mega contract for redevelopment of Mumba’s largest slum Dharavi and runs the Mumbai airport -- and the story is complete of a strong sentiment that sits at odds with the assembly results -- a total of 230 out of 288 seats for the BJP-Sena (Shinde)-NCP (Ajit Pawar) combine, with BJP itself bagging 132 seats. Such is the sweep that there will be no Leader of the Opposition in Maharashtra this time. The Shiv Sena vote share is down to 9.96% from 16.72% in the Lok Sabha elections in June -- a steep fall that is not very easy to explain.

Discard the EVM system

The hunger strike protest by the senior and respected social activist Baba Adav, who is 95-years-old, gives new fillip to the allegations of misuse of EVMs, not to speak of the heavy use of money power that is talked of in Maharashtra. Adav sat at Phule Wada, Mahatma Jyotiba Phule’s home in Pune city, for the protest, signalling yet again that the agitation is a social-political one against the brazen use of muscle-money, and now the added charge of machine-led manipulation to deliver results at odds with the ground reality. The Election Commission is set to meet with a delegation later this week to discuss the huge questions raised on number of people who voted -- which grew in official records from 58.22% at 5 p.m. on polling day to 65.02% at 11.30 p.m. on the same day, to 66.05% on the day of counting.

There is no denying that the changing numbers have dented the image of the Election Commission of India, and the credibility of the election process itself under the EVM system is increasingly coming under strain. This is a blow to democratic systems, processes and traditions in India. It makes India, the once shining democracy, look less like one. It indicates that we have weakened, not strengthened our systems in the last 75 years. 

We are at a stage that the claimed advantages of the EVMs have become irrelevant in the face of the risks the EVMs bring. It is time to discard the machines and go back to a fully physical, paper-led system -- the tried and tested paper and rubber stamp process of casting ballots and counting them one by one. Nothing is achieved by the ease of voting or speed of results if this speed lands us faster in the wrong place -- as indeed it appears to have.  To defend India, we must now destroy the EVMs.

(The writer is a journalist and faculty member at SPJIMR, Mumbai. Views expressed are personal. By special arrangement with The Billion Press)