The global push towards electric vehicles (EVs) is often viewed as a key pillar of climate action, aimed at reducing dependence on fossil fuels and lowering carbon emissions. In India, this transition has received significant policy support, with incentives to promote domestic EV production and infrastructure. However, this shift presents multiple challenges when examined against the backdrop of India's current energy mix and broader environmental realities. 

India is currently navigating one of the most ambitious energy transitions in the Global South. While global momentum is shifting towards net-zero commitments and sustainable infrastructure, the country continues to grapple with structural energy dependencies and the imperatives of economic growth. The urgency to decarbonize is met with a layered policy landscape, where social equity, infrastructure gaps, and energy security remain pressing concerns.

Coal: The Hidden Power Behind India’s EVs

Coal accounts for nearly 72% of India’s total electricity generation, producing approximately 1.31 million GWh of energy. Despite being the second-largest coal producer globally, India continues to import coal to meet demand, with import dependence standing at 29% of total energy imports. In 2023–24, coal production reached 997.83 million tons, reflecting an 11.72% year-on-year increase. While bituminous coal accounts for 88% of total domestic production, much of it is of medium to poor quality, requiring continued imports from countries like Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia. 

The problem with a rapid transition to EVs under this energy scenario is clear: increased electricity demand will likely lead to further coal-based power generation. This undermines the core sustainability rationale behind EVs. The shift to electric mobility can only meaningfully reduce emissions when electricity is generated through clean, renewable sources. Without shifting the centralized grid to renewables, the transition to EVs risks replacing one emission source with another.

Infrastructure and Economic Hurdles

Beyond emissions, there are systemic infrastructure challenges. Charging stations remain limited, particularly outside Tier-1 cities. A significant portion of India’s urban population parks vehicles in public spaces due to lack of private garages, making daily charging inconvenient or infeasible. EVs, though increasingly affordable, still come with high upfront costs, and battery maintenance and replacement remain expensive. While the running cost per kilometer is lower, approximately ₹1.60/km compared to ₹5.94/km for conventional vehicles (for Delhi), the long-term economic viability is influenced by charging access, battery degradation, and repair logistics.

Policy Pitfalls: From Vehicle Bans to Ethanol Blending

Another policy issue is the blanket ban on older vehicles in Delhi-NCR. The 10-year ban on diesel and 15-year ban on petrol vehicles has led to large-scale impounding, strict fuel sale restrictions, and the near-collapse of the second-hand car market. Vehicle owners with well-maintained vehicles have no recourse to re-registration, and the trust deficit among buyers is growing. 

Simultaneously, India’s ethanol blending targets have their own environmental costs. Moving from E10 (10% ethanol blended with 90% petrol) to E20 (20% ethanol) by 2025, and eventually to E30 (30% ethanol) by 2030, implies a surge in ethanol production, which is primarily derived from sugarcane, a water-intensive crop. Producing one liter of ethanol requires between 2,500 to 2,860 liters of water. This presents a serious concern in a country already facing depleting groundwater levels and growing water scarcity. Furthermore, ethanol-blended fuel results in reduced mileage, up to 20% less, which ironically could increase overall fuel consumption.

Critical Minerals and Geopolitical Vulnerabilities

The transition to EVs also introduces geopolitical challenges, particularly concerning critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements (REEs). These minerals are essential for lithium-ion batteries and other components used in EVs. REEs such as praseodymium, lanthanum, dysprosium, and terbium are largely processed in China. China plays a dominant role in the global supply chain for these REEs, not only as a leading extractor but also as the largest processor and refiner. This centralized control gives China significant strategic leverage over countries that depend on these resources, including India.

India does not have sufficient domestic reserves and relies heavily on imports. This creates strategic vulnerabilities. The 2010 REEs export halt by China to Japan following a maritime dispute, and the recent 2024 export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, and other minerals during trade tensions with the US, illustrate how mineral supply chains can be weaponized. In April 2025, China added seven REEs to its dual-use export control list. These include key minerals used in electric vehicle manufacturing and clean energy technologies. The move was widely seen as both an economic and political response to sanctions by the United States and its allies. 

India’s dependence on these materials, without adequate domestic capacity or diversified sources, poses long-term risks. Heavy reliance on a limited number of sources increases the danger of supply disruptions, which may result in frequent fluctuations in prices that could, in turn, impact manufacturing costs and profitability. The global energy transition, often seen as a linear shift from fossil fuels to renewables, is in fact a reordering of geopolitical dependencies.

A Calibrated Path Forward

To ensure a truly sustainable and resilient energy transition, India must adopt a calibrated approach. This involves, first, strengthening the renewable energy share in the national grid before large-scale EV rollout. Second, developing secure, diversified access to critical minerals while enhancing domestic processing capacity. Third, revisiting ethanol blending policies with water sustainability in mind. Fourth, allowing for vehicle inspection and re-registration rather than blanket bans. 

The climate change agenda is a critical component of India’s energy transition initiatives. The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have laid the groundwork, but implementation must go beyond targets. Institutional capacity, strategic foresight, and cross-sector collaboration will be essential. India's transition to electric mobility must be situated within the realities of its energy ecosystem and socio-economic landscape. Without integrated planning, the green transition risks becoming a surface-level fix with deep-seated contradictions.

(The author is a PhD Candidate at O.P. Jindal Global University and co-founder of the Centre for New Age Warfare Studies (CNAWS). Her research focuses on non-traditional security issues. Views expressed are personal. She can be contacted at nikitavats95@gmail.com )