Harboring little hopes of a breakthrough in the upcoming round of intra-Afghan talks, Pakistan is increasingly getting worried about a security vacuum in Afghanistan after the United States' troop pullout.

Although another round of intra-Afghan talks is scheduled to begin in the next couple of days, Pakistani officials feel the prospects of successful reconciliation between warring Afghan groups are growing dimmer with every passing day.

Pakistani officials say they fear a further intensification of the civil war in Afghanistan following the completion of the US pullout in the absence of a political settlement. This, they apprehend, can have a spillover effect pushing refugees into Pakistan, whose economy is already struggling.

It could also lead to a security nightmare. Pakistani terrorist groups having sanctuaries in Afghanistan too could exploit the situation, an official said, adding that there is a possibility of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and Baloch separatists joining hands to launch attacks in Pakistan.

Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, while talking to the speaker of Afghanistan’s Wolesi Jirga, Mir Rahman Rahmani on Tuesday, urged the Afghan groups to “seize this historic opportunity and work out an inclusive, broad-based and comprehensive political settlement for durable peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region,” according to a statement issued by the Foreign Office.

However, the fears of a security vacuum have been growing in the Pakistani establishment because of the stalemate in the peace process that started last September.

The only silver lining has been an understanding of the principles and procedures, which too was achieved after haggling for months over minor issues.

The impasse got deeper this year after US President Joe Biden, soon after taking office, ordered a review of the US-Taliban agreement of 2019 and subsequently set September 11 as the deadline for withdrawal of all US forces.

Several efforts were made by Pakistan and the international community to push both sides to return to the negotiation table to settle the remaining outstanding issues for ending the conflict, but none of the efforts has succeeded so far, Dawn newspaper reported.

The ascendant Taliban, meanwhile, too were not keen on a peace deal out of hopes that they could win a decisive victory on the battlefield. Over the past few weeks, the Taliban have captured several key districts after overrunning several military bases. A large number of Afghan troops have also surrendered to the Taliban.

The Pakistani assessment is that Afghan security forces do not have the capacity to hold territory after the Americans withdraw.

Currently, Afghan government troops are in control of 50 percent of Afghanistan, while 30 percent of the territory is under the Taliban and the remaining 20 percent is hotly contested. But the officials fear that this could change soon and the signs from the ground are that the insurgents are already filling the vacuum being left behind by the withdrawing US troops.

The US is believed to have completed up to 44 percent of the withdrawal process. There were about 2,500 US and 7,000 Nato troops in Afghanistan when President Biden announced the withdrawal deadline of September 11. Credible American media are now saying that Washington may complete the withdrawal by mid-July, American Independence Day, at least two months before the deadline. 

(SAM)