Maldives has announced that an agreement has been signed to strengthen cooperation in the field of technology with China. The agreement signed between the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and China’s South China Sea Institute of Oceanology has reportedly opened the doors for China to gather intelligence in the Maldivian waters        (https://english.adhadhu.com/article/65217?fbclid=IwY2xjawInZXhleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHZ2mDfj3OFBfBUje1E4RthKhX1PsjWdkJfL5wyqDxgo6GYovEAT7s5Z8Xg_aem_ibMZxDgxOlWIZdMBj_ByWA&sfnsn=wiwspwa).

Under this agreement, signed by Tourism and Environment Minister Thoriq Ibrahim on behalf of the Maldives, China is installing devices on the ocean floor to measure wind, ocean current, sound, salinity and temperature. But the real purpose could be recording and monitoring sonar signals, detecting vessels on the ocean surface and submarines under the sea, in addition to detecting aircraft and their altitude.

In return, China would be providing technological training to the Maldives. Notably, information and data obtained under this agreement by the Maldives cannot be passed on to third parties without China's consent. It may be recalled that Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu had earlier scrapped the agreement signed by the previous government of Maldives with India to survey the seabed, chart coastlines and study ocean currents and marine life.

Chinese moves in Bangladesh

Concurrently, Bangladesh is veering towards awarding Beijing its Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration project, with an estimated cost of USD 1 billion, for which Dhaka has asked a Chinese company to prepare a concept note by December 2025 and conduct feasibility study by 2026.

Teesta River spans 414 km from Sikkim and travels through the northern part of West Bengal before entering Bangladesh and later flows into the Bay of Bengal. India has built power projects on the Teesta River. An India-Bangladesh water-sharing agreement has not been signed all these decades and the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has been holding protest rallies for India to give Bangladesh fair share of this river’s water. BNP, having been the main opposition party to the Sheikh Hasina government, and a BNP delegation having visited Beijing, now wants the project to be awarded to China.

As part of the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration project, Bangladesh plans to dredge and develop  its part of the river. India is also interested in this project but has yet to submit a formal proposal, whereas, according to one report, the Chinese company has already submitted its proposal. It goes without saying that China would have worked out the project weeks or perhaps months in advance. Bangladesh has yet to announce whether the project would be awarded to China or India.

The significant part is that this project in Bangladesh would be adjacent to the Chicken’s Neck area of India, a narrow strip of land that separates India’s northeast with other states to the west of the country. This needs to be seen in conjunction with a four-member team of senior officers from Pakistan’s Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) visiting Rangpur district of Bangladesh, close to the Chicken's Neck in January 2025. As the crow flies, the distance between Rangpur district in Bangladesh to Siliguri in India is only about 130 km.

On February 19, 2025, Indian Army Chief, General Upendra Dwivedi, while emphasizing India’s firm communication to Pakistan and highlighting the nation’s clear stand on Jammu and Kashmir being an integral part of India post abrogation of Article 370, also expressed concern over a Pakistani Army-ISI delegation’s visit to areas in Bangladesh close to the Siliguri Corridor.

Those who think ISI had departed Bangladesh after the liberation of that country need to think again. During the BNP governments in Bangladesh, state-supported anti-India terrorist camps were run in Chittagong Hill tracts with instructors from Pakistan's ISI and Al Qaeda, including Pervez Musharraf, who later became Pakistan's Army Chief and President. The ISI, therefore, has deep roots in Bangladesh. Moreover, Rajeev Bhattacharya writes in his book 'ULFA – The Mirage of Dawn' that Pakistan's ISI continued to have considerable influence in Bangladesh, despite the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government, through contacts with Bangladesh's Directorate General Foreign Intelligence (DGFI) and other intelligence agencies, and that element of India's northeast militants remain untouched in Bangladesh.

Chinese moves in Nepal

A few years back, Nepal awarded the contract for oil exploration in the Terai region of Nepal bordering India, discounting India’s ONGC which was also a bidder. It is common knowledge that Chinese projects on foreign soil are either executed by the PLA (in disguise) or by China-owned companies. 

Viewing the Chinese projects in Nepal’s Terai region, and close to the strategic Chicken’s Neck in Bangladesh, together with the one in the waters of Maldives, one can see that China's calculated moves seek to slowly encircle India. 

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal)