Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday welcomed the defense pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as the beginning of a “comprehensive regional security system” in what seems to signal the rise of an Islamic security bloc.

When the leader of Iran, the sole Shia-majority country, applauds coming together of the bastion of Sunni Islam, Saudi Arabia, and the sole Sunni Islamic nuclear power Pakistan, it portends a geostrategic reordering of significance.

It is a matter of particular concern for India whose relations with the United States have become unmoored. To add to New Delhi’s terrible uncertainty, US President Donald Trump and leaders of Muslim countries met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. These are some of the same Islamic countries that are now evincing interest in what Iran has called a “comprehensive regional security system”.

Pakistan's Growing Importance

The immediate cause of this security system is an out-of-control Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has consistently refused to heed any counsel from the international community, including the U.S., to cease its military action in Gaza.

The Middle East no longer sees Washington as a reliable guarantor of security for the region. That is where the defense pact between Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan acquires particular importance. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, his country’s de facto ruler, is scheduled to visit Pakistan in November. There are expectations of Saudi investments in defense projects. It is the first Saudi royal visit to Pakistan in 19 years.

Even as these rapid developments are unfolding, President Trump hosted Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Pakistan Army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir on Thursday. This was Munir’s second visit to the White House. The first one was on June 18 much to India’s chagrin, especially because it took place so soon after the four-day military conflict between the two South Asian neighbors in May. Trump described both men as “great” leaders.

The optics of Islamic countries coming together under the apparent nuclear protection provided by Pakistan and Washington reigniting its relations with Islamabad do not augur well for India in the long term.

Impact on India

In recent months India’s foreign policy establishment under External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has been buffeted by repeated diplomatic assaults by Washington involving 50% U.S. tariffs and sanctions, withering criticism over India’s purchase of Russian oil and the stunning hike in the H1B visa processing fee to $100,000. All three impact India from many different angles with no clear signs of a turnaround in bilateral relations which are at their worst in the last quarter century. Despite Trump's professions of personal friendship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who he greeted on his 75th birthday on September 17 effusively, there is nothing to suggest improvement.

Modi, likely prompted by the wish to avoid meeting Trump on its sidelines, skipped attending the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly where Sharif appeared to gain some visibility. He had what seemed like a warm meeting with Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus. Given that India-Bangladesh relations too are at their lowest after the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her escape to India where she has just completed a year in exile, Pakistan-Bangladesh handshake too is fraught with consequences. There is no prospect of her returning to Bangladesh because of a slew of charges she faces there giving Yunus a permanent point to complain about.

The Sharif-Yunus meeting, albeit routine, acquires a sharper edge because both Pakistan and Bangladesh are at loggerheads with India. The pervasive sense right now is that New Delhi is diplomatically besieged even as Islamabad craftily navigates its way out of its staggering economic crises and perpetually fractious polity.

(The writer is a Chicago-based journalist, author and commentator. Views are personal)