A from-the-field media report on the Pakistan opposition parties’ first protest rally at Gujranwala states that former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, now in London, wanted the social media managers arranging his video link to first show him the audience. Enthused on seeing a milling 50,000 crowd, the three-time former prime minister unleashed an offensive against the military.

He accused the military of ousting him through a flawed Supreme Court verdict and perpetuating their role as “a state above the state” which is no secret, but has never been uttered from a public platform.

This is how a seasoned politician in adversity would act to draw oxygen from the masses. Since there are no textbook rules governing such situations, the military possibly could not foresee it.

Crackdown on opposition

The error was compounded, going by media reports, with what followed the next ‘jalsa’ (meeting) in Karachi. Police entered the hotel room of opposition leader Maryam, Nawaz’s daughter and a star attraction at the opposition rallies, and arrested her husband, Mohammad Safdar.

The controversy grew further when the Karachi Police chief, reluctant to conduct the arrest, was taken to the Army’s Corps Command headquarters, triggering revolt among sections of the Sindh Police. Named directly and personally by Nawaz for having ‘engineered’ his ouster, Army Chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa had to intervene and order an inquiry. Media reports say Karachi could have a new corps commander.

Military role in Pakistan politics

A glance at the military’s role in the country’s politics since 1951, begun with General (later field marshal) Ayub Khan, would show that Pakistan was ruled through long phases of military rule by Yahya Khan, Zia-ul-Haq and Pervez Musharraf. They browbeat  civilians, demonized and played favourites with politicians, but at the end is forced to return the country to democratic rule.

But all these generals, who headed the army, ruled directly. The situation is different this time as the army, not formally in charge, has an alleged ‘proxy’ in Prime Minister Imran Khan. Even during the rule by earlier ‘proxies’ of which Nawaz was certainly one, the military was not exposed to attacks like the ones at the three back-to-back opposition rallies through October at Gujranwala, Karachi, and Quetta. This is an unprecedented situation. The Army has lost some of its image as the nation’s ‘saviour.’  

Other parties of the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM) at these rallies have muted their criticism, sensing the risks involved in the direct attack at the all-powerful institution that also has huge public approval.  But there is a twist. They have qualified their criticism as ‘unfortunate’ and that they were compelled because of ‘protection’ given to the Khan government. This clever move cuts both ways. Again, the military could not have anticipated this.

Also cutting both ways is the repeated public assurance since PM Imran Khan took office that the civil and military leadership are “on the same page.” The Army’s problem is that Khan is seen clinging to it firmly and tightly, while fending off criticism with tough measures, amidst allegations of rising prices of essential commodities, pressures on media, and worse, an all-in anti-graft campaign targeting opposition parties.  

Nawaz has named Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, besides current Director-General, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt Gen Faiz Hameed; former ISI chief, Lt. Gen. (retd) Zaheerul Islam; and former Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) chief, General Asim Saleem Bajwa (retd). Asim Bajwa had to resign recently as Special Assistant to the Pakistan Prime Minister on Information and Broadcasting, a ministerial post, following serious charges of graft and nepotism. This, too, is unprecedented. He will, however, continue to head the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) Authority.

Renowned journalist Najam Sethi, who calls the civil-military combine “Miltablishment” observes in an editorial in The Friday Times, titled ‘Moment of reckoning’: “Overnight, the Miltablishment rather than the PTI government is in the eye of the gathering storm. If it continues to play political partisanship, it will have to sanction renewed repression against the opposition. But this will further discredit it and make it lose the respect of Pakistanis which is the glue that binds state and society.”  

Opposition gearing for Nov 22 rally

Significantly, the opposition challenge has come from Punjab that remains the stronghold of the Sharifs, no matter who rules. It is from here that the military draws a bulk of its rank and file. By choosing different cities for their rallies - a fourth one is scheduled in Peshawar on November 22 - the opposition is widening the battleground, daring the military.

Maryam Nawaz presented a Baloch activist at the Quetta rally to drive home the prickly issue of ‘disappearances’ involving civilian critics, activists, and media. They are kidnapped, held without a warrant, thrashed before being released, and at times, killed.

This should be of particular concern to the establishment as ‘disappearances’ occur irrespective of the parties in power.  This is so especially in volatile Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, both having ‘nationalist’ groups. All intelligence agencies of the State are involved.

Imran Khan government under attack

As part of fire-fighting, Bajwa has held out an olive branch to critics of the army’s political role by saying that positive criticism must not be confused with the hybrid war against Pakistan.  He had speedily reacted to the phone call from Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari whose party rules in Sindh and who raised the manner in which Safdar was detained.

But Khan has queered the pitch, stating in an interview that the Army Chief had “made a mistake” in talking to the opposition leaders.

Speculation is that Bajwa may still reach out to the opposition before the November 22 rally. The only other alternative is to unleash repression that, while adding to the turmoil, analysts say, could only further tarnish the army’s image.

Since the government under attack is led by an internationally acclaimed cricketer, using the game’s idiom may be appropriate. As of now, the Pakistan Army seems to have become the umpire who has also become the player. It is seen as the wicket-keeper who is shielding batsman Khan. The umpire has exposed himself to not just spins and googlies, but also occasional bodyline bumpers. How it ducks them remains to be seen.

(The writer is  President, Commonwealth Journalists Association (CJA). The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at mahendraved07@gmail.com)