Considering the importance of bilateral relations, it is no surprise that the first foreign envoy to call on President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to congratulate him on the resounding victory at the November 14 parliamentary elections was Indian High Commissioner Santosh Jha. He assured that India would remain a crucial partner in Sri Lanka’s recovery.

Sri Lanka’s internal politics and external economic pressures will play a significant role in shaping its foreign policy in the years ahead. While India continues to be a friendly neighbour and crucial partner of Sri Lanka, Colombo will also keep China as an important economic partner.

The landslide victory of President Dissanayake’s National People's Power (NPP) securing more than two-third majority at the parliamentary elections no doubt took the whole country by surprise. In the run-up to the elections, analysts were discussing whether the NPP would be able to muster a simple majority of at least 113 seats, and the NPP top-ranks urged the people to return a strong parliament to enable the government to implement its policies. 

Tilvin Silva, general secretary of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the dominant party in the NPP alliance,  highlighted the responsibility that came from such a huge mandate. While pledging that this power would be wielded in a responsible manner, he said they understood the depth and weight of such a mandate.

“We are inheriting a country burdened by debt, economic ruin, and a tarnished international reputation. This is a mandate for hope, for rebuilding, and for change,” he said.

Recalibration of foreign policy likely

The NPP victory has raised crucial questions regarding Sri Lanka’s diplomatic orientation, especially in balancing its traditional ties with India and the increasingly prominent role of China in the region. Pressing domestic issues will keep the rulers busy for the next couple of months, and they may have little time or energy for foreign policy issues, including India and India’s China-centric concerns. Major policy shifts, if any, will happen after dealing with the IMF team which is already in Colombo and taking care of the immediate issues pertaining to the economy and cost of living.

Although Dissanayake emphasized that the government would adhere to a neutral foreign policy, some analysts feel the new leadership might attempt to recalibrate its foreign policy, seeking to strike a more balanced approach between India and China. Their argument is that Sri Lanka’s economic dependence on China and the geopolitical realities of the region make complete neutrality impossible. Dissanayake may opt for a middle ground, continuing to engage China on economic projects while maintaining close ties with India on security, trade, and cultural matters.

India is quite confident that JVP leaders who are at the helm of the government have deviated from the old anti-India policy of the party. ‘Indian Hegemony’ was the third of the ‘five classes’ that radical JVP founder Rohana Wijeweera conducted for his cadres in the 1970s. Later in the 1988-89 period the JVP launched a campaign to boycott Indian products.

The JVP policy towards India took a u-turn when its youthful cadres were highly appreciative of the Indian assistance given during the tsunami and later at the height of the economic crisis two years ago. India’s $4 billion aid tops the list of overseas assistance. India also rushed food, fuel and medicines that helped end the long queues for these and other essentials.

From the statements of Dissanayake and his Foreign Minister Vijitah Herath, it is clear that the government wants smooth continuation of the existing bilateral relations just as they are going through a smooth transition in the country.

Indian External Affairs Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar was the first foreign leader to arrive in the country after Dissanayake’s victory in September and he held detailed discussions with the new president as well as key political figures, including Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath, and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, underscoring India’s desire to maintain strong bilateral ties. The visit was framed as part of India’s “Neighborhood First” policy, which emphasizes the importance of engagement with neighboring countries to ensure regional stability and security.

During the visit, Jaishankar offered several initiatives aimed at supporting Sri Lanka’s development, including a $61.5 million grant to modernize the Kankesanthurai Port and converting $20 million worth of Line of Credit projects into grants. In addition, discussions covered energy cooperation, renewable energy exports, digital infrastructure, health, and dairy development. Jaishankar also reaffirmed India’s support for Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring and its efforts with the International Monetary Fund.

Support for NPP from all communities

One of the concerns of India has been the ethnic issue in Sri Lanka. Last week’s election underlined a most significant feature of the voting patterns in Sri Lanka with regard to the choices of different communities. The support extended by all communities to the new government took everybody by surprise as the NPP secured victory in both Tamil-dominated

Jaffna and Vanni districts in the North and in Muslim-dominated Digamadulla and Trincomalee in the East.

The party also swept through districts with significant populations of hill country communities, including Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Kandy, and Ratnapura.

Silva was quick to recognise the significance of the support extended to the NPP across all communities. This is a profound victory of trust, understanding, and unity, thank you, North, for believing in us,” he said, adding that the victory in Jaffna was far greater than securing 159 seats in Parliament.

“This is not just a victory; it is a unification of all Sri Lankan people,” Silva said. “For the first time, the people of the north, east, and south have come together, setting aside racial and religious divisions. This is a rejection of old politics based on racism,” Silva noted.

Indeed one cannot quarrel with his characterisation of the mandate as a rejection of politics based on racism when one compares the situation that existed in the country after the victory of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) in 2019.

The NPPs campaign at both the presidential election and at the parliamentary elections was based on equality, non discrimination and devoid of religious or racial hatred to which the county responded positively.

First overseas visit to India likely

Jaishankar extended an invitation to President Dissanayake and the indications are that the new president would follow the neighbourhood tradition of making New Delhi his first overseas stop. Considering the need to keep Beijing equally happy, Dissanayake’s second overseas trip will be to China.

When Dissanayake was invited to New Delhi earlier this year, Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval convinced the JVP/NPP team that India’s interest was in seeing Sri Lanka as a stable, prosperous, and cooperative neighbour. The message conveyed was that given the shared cultural, historical, and economic ties between the two countries, India would seek to maintain close diplomatic and economic relations with its southern neighbour in mutual interest.  

(The author, a former Sri Lankan diplomat, is a political and strategic affairs commentator. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at sugeeswara@gmail.com)