Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, Deputy Foreign Minister of the ruling Taliban in Afghanistan, recently stated that if Pakistan sustains its policy of coercing the Pashtuns into acknowledging the British-drawn Durand Line, then it is likely for it to invite a similar situation as the one in 1971, which led to the formation of Bangladesh after the breakup of Pakistan.

Stankizai tried to draw a parallel to the mass exodus of people from Bangladesh into India from then East Pakistan that led to the Liberation War for Bangladesh. He compared the event to the recent exodus of Afghans from Pakistan which had been initiated in mid-September 2023. The Pakistani government had given a final ultimatum to the so-called undocumented immigrants from Afghanistan living illegally in Pakistan and asked them to return to their homeland by 1 November 2023. It was reported that more than 165,000 Afghans left Pakistan due to the fear of getting detained, arrested, or deported by the Pakistani authorities.
This did not sit well with the Taliban as they were forced to open the borders without being prepared for the influx of cross-border mass migration.

Pakistan has blamed the Afghan refugees for the increase in the terror attacks on its soil. Most of the claimed attacks, according to Pakistan, were carried out by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as Pakistani Taliban, because of their close rapport with the Afghan Taliban. According to Pakistan’s caretaker Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti, who was in charge of the Afghan expulsion drive, 14 out of 24 suicide bombings in Pakistan in 2023 were orchestrated by Afghan nationals. Most of the Afghans were claimed to be from various Pashtun tribes.

Since the formation of the Durand Line, the area in Pakistan that came under the demarcation of the boundary line was mostly the Pashtun area, where several indigenous Pashtun tribes have for generations resided.  Due to this the residents of that region refuse to acknowledge the Durand Line and have viewed it as a an artificial entity existing only in name. The majority of the Pashtuns have more affinity with Afghanistan and hence refuse to be a part of Pakistan. 

Britain's divide-and-rule  ways 

Pakistan on the other hand has been imposing its legitimacy on the Durand Line by imposing its rules and policies in the Pashtun-dominated region which got assigned to Pakistan post-independence. Stanikzai stressed that the Pashtuns had never considered the Durand Line as a partition, but rather a superficial boundary.

After the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in 2021, they reiterated that the border fencing had separated families. The group has always stressed that no new efforts to fence the 'border' would be accepted by the Emirate of Afghanistan.

The beginning of the dispute could be traced to the 18th century. Post the fall of the Durrani empire, the influence of the Pashtuns slowly started to diminish. The British were successful at executing their influence in the area but struggled with controlling the hinterland.

To prevent Russian influence and a possible rebuttal from the Pashtuns, a tripartite frontier agreement was done. This frontier was developed with the first being placed at the foothills of the Sulaiman Hills, the second defence frontier extended to areas that were the British vassal states, and the last served as a buffer which was the area outside the two concentric frontiers. Sir Mortimer Durand was tasked to sign an agreement with the Amir of Afghanistan, Abdur Rahman. By  12 November 1893, the Durand Line was drawn. This split the Pashtun-dominated region arbitrarily. 

This division gave Britain the means to conduct trade and access to routes that were difficult to reach. Also, by demarcating the Durand Line, the British were able to divide and rule the area by disrupting growing Pashtun nationalism.

Boundary commissions were formed and the final border was outlined in 1897. The local tribes protested and continued their resistance against the demarcated boundary. The issue and the movement still prevail. By 1949, Afghanistan withdrew from the agreement. This stance has remained the same since. The Pashtuns have continued to stick to their ethnic and cultural identities and have dismissed Pakistan’s claim on their land.

To date, the Pashtuns continue to follow their tribal ways while adjuring to their ‘Pashtunwali’ ideologies compared to the Pakistani state-sponsored ideology that is imposed on them.

Pakistan's legal imposition 

Pakistan, however, has strived to control FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) through the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FAR), using methods to inflict collective punishment on all the tribes in the area for crimes committed by individuals. After FATA merged with Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province in 2018, there was some effort made to collectively bring FATA into the mainstream of Pakistan and FAR was replaced by Pakistani laws.

By 2001, reports of Pakistan moving the frontier westward emerged. The reports stated that Pakistan had encroached inside the Chaman border with 

Afghanistan by a mile and a new border crossing was erected.

Under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969) (VCLT), Afghanistan had evoked Articles 51 and 52. It had pointed, that since the agreement was signed under pressure by the Amir, it should not be considered valid. Apart from this, Afghanistan had also asked that its decision to withdraw from the agreement in 1949 be taken into account.

 However, Pakistan defended its position by raising the matter of the four agreements which it claimed were signed in 1905, 1919, 1921, and 1930.

Additionally, based on some declassified British Foreign Office files, it was revealed that the creation of the Durand Line was not to divide the area or establish an international border, but to utilize the line for a certain period. This was also stated by Durand himself, who foresaw that if the agreement led to ‘partition’, it would not be in the British interest as it would turn the tribes against the British. Since then, the Afghans have continued to press on their stance.

Pakistan’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Asif Durrani, dismissed the Afghan Taliban’s stance on the Durand Line and stated “For Pakistan, the matter of the Durand Line is conclusively settled,”. This was quoted by Khamma.com. Taliban’s take on the Durand line has been called “selfish and baseless” by the Pakistan foreign ministry. Pakistan has been reiterating that the Durand Line is a product of international law due to which the international border must be respected. 

There have been frequent cross-border skirmishes between the Taliban and Pakistan which have only exacerbated since the ceasefire was called off by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in June 2022 against Pakistani forces. The TTP was reported to have called on their fighters to carry out attacks on Pakistan, referring to the entire operation as the “attacks on the mujahideen”. Before calling off the ceasefire, there were a series of round table talks between TTP and Pakistani officials. Pakistan believed with years of financial and military aid provided to the Afghan Taliban, it would manage to acquire some strategic depth in Afghanistan and also succeed at curbing TTP-related attacks in Pakistan. However, the much-desired expectation of having support from the Afghan Taliban in pressuring the affiliated TTP to curb its anti-Pakistan activities failed.
Soon after, Pakistan blamed Kabul for providing safe havens to the top TTP leadership in Afghanistan and for having orchestrated terror attacks against Pakistan.

The Taliban has dismissed these claims. Soon after, Pakistan called for the deportation of all undocumented or illegal Afghans on their soil.

Cross-border skirmishes

Recently, the core commanders of TTP have also stated that the Pakistani military and its spy agency ISI have been hosting their rival outfit ISIS Khorsan’s (ISK) members in Pakistani guesthouses. A deal known as the Dabori agreement was signed between the ISI and the ISK leadership. The TTP commanders have referred to this agreement as a symbiotic agreement where the ISK cadre carries attacks on certain groups and individuals at the behest of the Pakistani military, thereby relieving the Pakistani military of any responsibility or blame. At the same time, ISK also manages to fortify itself with the help of Pakistan while eliminating Taliban competition. This could be inferred from the attack on the Jamiat Ulema-e Islam Pakistan (JUI) party around 5 p.m. on July 30, 2023 in the Bajaur tribal district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan. JUI has affiliations with the Afghan Taliban. Also, the attacks on various candidates contesting for the Pakistan general election were claimed by ISK. TTP, which has allegiance to the Afghan Taliban, has stated the attacks on candidates by ISK were done on the orders of Pakistan’s military which rigged the elections to appoint their candidates. This was seen in the case of Rehan Zeb Khan, an independent candidate in the February 8 election, who was supported by the former prime minister Imran Khan’s party. He and his four aides were shot in Bajur district. The attacks were claimed by ISK.

Recently, cross-border skirmishes were reported between Pakistani military and Afghan forces. Islamabad mentioned its military presence in the area as "repair works", which they said they were doing along the International border. However, an article in Sunday Guardian by Ehsanullah Ehsan, a former TTP core commander, stated otherwise. He mentioned the use of the  ISK cadre by the Pakistani military. The article further claimed that Pakistan, under its diversion tactics, tried to push terrorists into Afghanistan with supportive military fire at the checkpoints on the Afghan side. In retaliation from the Afghans, the terrorists were believed to have retreated into Pakistan as the firing continued on both sides.

2023 saw a series of clashes at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in Chitral, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan. On 7 September, the TTP orchestrated attacks on five military check posts from Afghan territory, killing four Pakistani soldiers. Pakistan claimed that the attack was supported by the Afghan Taliban.

The Pakistani government had expected the Taliban administration in Afghanistan to fulfill its obligations to prevent the use of Afghan territory by terrorists to conduct violent activities against Pakistan. However, this wish remained unfulfilled as the two nations are engaged in pointing fingers at each other.

While the contentious Durand Line has become one of the main reasons for cross-border skirmishes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Taliban has turned from being seen as an ideological ally that can give Pakistan 'strategic depth' against India, to a troublesome neighbour that is now viewed with deep suspicion.

The Taliban has stuck to its agenda and has followed up on supporting its affiliates like the TTP, which also provides the Taliban with leverage to pressure the Pakistani government in exerting influence in areas like the FATA. With Pakistan embroiled in political instability and financial woes, there seems no quick solution in sight to the simmering conflict in its western border areas.    

(The writer is an Indian research analyst specializing in AF/Pak region and counter-terrorism. Views are personal. She can be contacted at aparnarawal@gmail.com)