With the declining impact of deterrence measures, including dwindling effectiveness of confidence-building measures and a wide array of dialogue-building processes in trying to mitigate risks of conflicts, the question of a full-blown conflict stemming from the inevitability of Thucydides’ trapping would be a matter of when and where.
The rise of nationalist sentiments globally and in Europe, as seen in the premiership of Giorgia Meloni in Italy and Rishi Sunak in Britain, are conflating political circumstances for a global pushback against China’s actions where these countries are ready to call out China in a more forthright manner.
A forceful "unification" of Taiwan has been projected by most analysts as happening within the next five years of Xi’s new third term, as he will need this to cement a history-making legacy that will help him extend his rule for life
Taipei needs full regional support for its survival and in its efforts to repel a Chinese invasion; it cannot afford to be distracted by other lingering issues with other neighbours, including Japan, which Beijing is happy to exploit to its advantage.
No country comes close to China’s sophisticated influence-seeking tools and the way it leverages its soft power. The relentless pursuit by Chinese propagandists, out to stake their claim on the global information order, are challenges that the independent global information order needs to meet.
In this regard, both ASEAN and Malaysia seem to have lost their appeal to the West for a deeper security foothold, with Washington realising that the current situation of the region's pandering to Beijing makes it difficult for the US to establish rooted military alliances and placement of strategic anti-missile capacities, among others
A new, long and potentially ugly physical and mind games have begun, where conventional and tactical firepower alone would not guarantee long term success and acceptance
Both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh remain crucial in the eyes of New Delhi and Washington in denying further incursions by Beijing, underscored by the scramble for reassertion of American influence and ties with both nations
Beijing should be wise enough in realizing the dangerous impact of its using pugnacious responses to Pelosi’s visit that can risk greater backfiring from its strategic adversaries in the future
A new spectrum of tactical competition has begun in the Indo Pacific, and it requires more than threats and deterrence to determine the path and pattern of the conflict; it needs wisdom and strategic foresight by all the players in playing both the short and long game with both conventional and new tools of war and diplomacy
