Bangladesh held its first general elections on February 12, 2026 after Sheikh Hasina’s violent ouster in August 2024. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and an 11-party alliance led by the Jamaat-e-Islami (Jei), which was banned under the Sheikh Hasina government, were the main contestants.

There were no reports of violence/killings and booth capturing during the elections, according to the Dhaka Tribune, that used paper ballots. However, calling the polls "free and fair" was a farce considering that the Awami League (dominating Bangladesh’s political system between 2009 to July 2024), was banned from participating in the elections.

In the election that saw some 60% turnout, the BNP won more than the two-thirds majority - 209 seats of the total 299. This marks BNP’s biggest win to date. Former prime minister Khaleda Zia’s son Tarique Rahman, who polled 2,16,284 votes, is set to be the new Prime Minister of Bangladesh.

The JeI also scored its biggest tally to date by winning 68 constituencies, including the student-led National Citizen Party winning nine constituencies, although there was little chance of the JeI-led coalition forming the government.  

The JeI left nothing to imagination with its leader Shafiqur Rahman allegedly promising 15,000 taka to families that vote for JeI, reportedly promising their afterlife will be free of sin and the move will grant them salvation from grave punishment.

The Past Raises Questions

Tarique Rahman was convicted (in absentia) in 2018 and sentenced to life imprisonment for his alleged role as a mastermind in the 2004 grenade attack on an Awami League rally targeting then PM Sheikh Hasina. He was also convicted in corruption and money laundering cases. Later, Bangladesh High Court (during the Yunus-led Interim Government) acquitted him of all charges in December 2024.

Rahman’s pre-poll promises include law and order, democratic and inclusive governance and restraint in the post-election transition. But how will these be viewed by the large number of youth who led the 2024 coup and are radicalized more by JeI/other terrorist leaders released from prison by the interim Yunus regime that has now demitted office? 

Under the BNP, particularly during Khaleda Zia’s rule, four major anti-India terrorist camps were being run in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. Notably, these terrorist training camps had Al Qaeda and Pakistan ISI/military instructors. As a young officer, Pervez Musharraf (later president of Pakistan) also served as an instructor in these terrorist training camps. To assume that the radical elements of the BNP will not be in league with the JeI will be the height of naviete. 

The Yunus-regime has ensured consolidation of the ISI in Bangladesh and Pakistani army conducting training in four cantonments in Bangladesh. Yunus-led delegations to Beijing (including JeI leaders) and deals awarded to China confirms Dhaka’s unmistakable tilt towards Beijing.  

US Role in Question

America’s role in the current geopolitical setting is also to undermine India. Bangladesh, a global textile exporter, imports USD 1.8 cotton and yarn from India. US President Trump says if Bangladesh buys raw material from the US, it can export textiles to America at 0% duty while Indian export to the US will have 18% duty. 

Concurrently, Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative (USTR), who had shared a map on X showing Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) and Aksai Chin integral to India, while announcing the framework for an interim trade agreement between the US and India has now deleted that post.

With many in South Asia feeling that the US was behind Gen Z revolts in Nepal and Bangladesh, elements in the Trump Administration can always be counted upon to use Bangladesh to corner India when it sees it in its geopolitical interest. The return of BNP rule in Bangladesh is not good augury for India.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal)