In a landmark decision the Supreme Court of Bangladesh has ruled 93% jobs should be on merit, 5% percent reservation for relatives of freedom fighters; and 2% for members of ethnic minorities, transgender and disabled persons, overall reducing reservations from 56% to 7%. The Supreme Court termed the Dhaka High Court ruling of June 5, 2024 illegal that reserved 56% of government jobs, including disabled persons (1%), indigenous communities (5%), women (10%), people from underdeveloped districts (10%) and families of the freedom fighters (30%).

Protests against quota following the High Court verdict began under the banner of Students Movement Against Discrimination’, supposedly without any political affiliation. But the alacrity with which the protests in Dhaka spread to universities across the country is noteworthy. These protests were perhaps why Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina cut short her visit to China by few hours and returned to Dhaka on July 14.

Some 150 persons have been killed in widespread protests in Bangladesh. The country has become a fortress with curfew imposed, internet suspended and army deployed to quell the riots. The Sheikh Hasina government had already abolished the 30% quota in government jobs for families of freedom fighters way back in 2018. But Dhaka High Court revived this quota triggering the protests. Was this verdict based on what arguments were presented or is there more to it?  

Outside hand 

The violence is unlikely to quell soon; 150 killed and some 300 reportedly injured in police action is enough for the opposition (mainly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI)/Islamic Chhatra Shibir) to incite the masses.  There should also be no doubt that these protests are being fueled by China and Pakistan to depose the pro-India Sheikh Hasina Government and install a pro-Islamist anti-India government like the erstwhile BNP-led government in Bangladesh. Then there is also the US, leader of the so-called Rule-Based-Order, looking to destabilize South Asia!

The Bangladesh Police claim that the Islami Chhatra Shibir, the student wing of the JEI has infiltrated the students’ movement and have resorted to subversive activities. Intelligence agencies of Bangladesh have also reported that the BNP and JEI have taken advantage of the students’ agitation and seized the opportunity to try and topple the government using violent means. These are real possibilities.

Resentment over quotas 

According to latest reports, more than 4,500 Indian students have returned from Bangladesh. How long it will take for the Sheikh Hasina government to normalize the situation is difficult to gauge but sooner the upheavals subside it is better not only for Bangladesh, but the region as a whole.

There are concerns that Bangladesh-type of violent protests has the potential to become widespread across the Indian subcontinent, given the  resentment over affirmative action in employment, identity politics, and jobs being replaced by AI (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10169263286150092&id=629630091&mibextid=xfxF2i&rdid=CJTNI8mSkJsflqrd). This certainly merits serious examination by our policy makers. 

Is a verdict by the Supreme Court of Bangladesh of  93% jobs on merit and reducing reservations from 56% to only 7%,  possible in India? This appears impossible, considering all our political parties fall over each other to enhance reservations, which has become the tool for electioneering. Every political party lays claim to BR Ambedkar (who headed the Constitution drafting committee); prostrating at his statue and garlanding his bust on his birth anniversary or Constitution Day, but ignore that Ambedkar wanted reservations to remain only for 10 years once  the Constitution gets promulgated.

The irony is that educational pass percentages are also lowered for the reserve category because all these decades Indian governments have not been able to provide requisite education to masses and government schools continue to function on  attendance of not even half the number of teachers on the payroll. It doesn’t matter if the overall standard of the country is lowered because it is all about votes. That is why Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee wanting reservations to be linked to financial standings was ignored. The result is a disjointed societal mosaic with many reservists continuing to eat the cakes and taking them home.

The unemployment figures remain ambiguous in India despite government claims. But unemployed, including educated unemployed, are going out to every corner of the globe – be it Ukraine, Russia, Cambodia, Middle East, the West, you name it. Amid the increasing quota of reservations, the sucker is the “general category”. But can the general category protest by itself? 

Politicians play games 

Politicians can engineer myriad distractions for the teeming number of unemployed, not just reservation quotas, but issues like mandir-masjid, caste, creed, Hindu-Muslim enmity, ethnic cleansing and the like. New controversies can be sprung in a jiffy, like the recent one related to Kanwariyas, in which the Supreme Court had to step in to say food vendors will only display the kind of food served.

The Chief Minister of West Bengal says any refugees from Bangladesh as a result of the crisis must be given shelter, according to the UN. But no one asks how they crossed the border manned by Border Security Force which is directly under the Ministry of Home Affairs     

The Chief Minister of Assam says it is a matter of life and death for him that the Muslim population of Assam has jumped to 40%. But why has his political party in power for more than 10 years not enacted a population control bill – counting votes? These are only a few examples.       

Finally, whether the violence for reservations in Bangladesh can spread to India is anybody’s guess, but what cannot have much faith in our political class!

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)