The main reason for Sheikh Hasina resigning and leaving Bangladesh is cited authoritarian rule and muzzling free speech – something happening in many countries globally, including in democracies. But the collusion of foreign interest against her has not found much mention, save Hasina indicating a “white man” wanted to establish a base in Bangladesh. The “white man” was obviously playing a ruse because Pakistan kicked out the US base and China would never allow a US military base in Bangladesh, whichever the government.  

The coup in Bangladesh was reportedly planned by a former US official meeting Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir in the US after ISI operatives met Tariq Ahmad, former prime minister Khaleda Zia’s son, in London and in Saudi Arabia. ISI funded Islamic Chatra Sangh of Jamat-e-Islami (JeI) for the coup.Does the US want to place India in a dangerous situation and facilitate an India versus China-Pakistan war?  That’s why perhaps the Russian foreign ministry warned in December 2023 that if Hasina came back to power, the US would do everything (like the Arab Spring) to unseat her.  That’s why Dhaka High Court reinstated 30 per cent reservations for freedom fighters, which the Hasina government had already cancelled in 2018.  

Having sponsored, raised, armed and used terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, plus leaving $9 billion worth of weaponry for the Taliban, the US plan is to plunge South Asia into chaos using these proxy forces. Why else would the US State Department “accidentally” (sic) send $239 million to Taliban 2021 onwards, as revealed by the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan?

China factor 

Whether India’s security watchdogs had any indication of what was coming in Bangladesh is not known. But Rajeev Bhattacharya in his recent book ‘ULFA – The Mirage of Dawn’, writes:  Pakistan’s ISI continues to have “considerable influence” in Bangladesh despite the Awami League government through contacts with Bangladesh’s DGFI and intelligence agencies; elements of northeast militants (less ULFA) remain “untouched” in Bangladesh and even some ULFA elements are back in Bangladesh; the US has been in contact with ULFA in Dhaka”.

During Hasina’s state visit to India in June 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India and Bangladesh will begin technical-level talks for renewing the 1996 Ganga Waters Treaty and an Indian technical team will soon visit Bangladesh for conservation and management of the Teesta River. China assisted in establishing the largest submarine base for the Bangladesh Navy and Chinese officials have been visiting Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh. China was miffed with Hasina giving the Teesta project to India but why China gave $11 million to Bangladesh instead of earlier promised $3 billion during Hasina’s visit is because it perhaps knew regime change in Dhaka was coming?

Border management 

India is worried about the safety of some 19,000 Indians and 9,000 students in Bangladesh because Hindus and temples are under increased attacks in Bangladesh. Not that this was not happening periodically at lesser levels during the Hasina regime, facts albeit kept out of India’s mainstream media! However, Islamist radicals are for eliminating all non-Muslims, not just Hindus (https://easternmirrornagaland.com/does-it-matter-if-hindus-suffer/?fbclid=IwY2xjawEf3w1leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHWAWpUGcJpwvC0uosw7WgseNIjuhlwQDHJar-I753jBQXTB4U9DZpWkyRw_aem_aOBqegBprHjiACBVhkCDVQ).     

Muhammad Yunus, heading Bangladesh’s Interim Government, is America's blue-eyed; Fulbright Scholarship from the US State Department; US Presidential Medal of Freedom (2009); Congressional Gold Medal (2010); letter from the National Endowment for Democracy. But on January 1, 2024, Yunus was sentenced to six months in prison for labor law violations though later released on bail pending further proceedings. On June 12, 2024, Yunus and 13 others were indicted in Dhaka for allegedly embezzling over $2 million from his telecom company (https://x.com/BrigMahalingam/status/1821100330098290797?t=vaC8jekZEjyO-oPch5Oppg&s=08).

The Interim Government is all-party but the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat e Islami will dominate the scene with radical Islamists having sway.  Actor Shanto Khan and his father Selim Khan, who made a movie on Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, were recently lynched by a mob while the police said they couldn’t reach the scene (https://x.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/1821160168928776681?t=cOUNlJnvMhMQk3aYLcW9vA&s=03). With Khaleda Zia out of prison, the BNP has called for elections in three months. Under the circumstance, it is unlikely the Awami League can return to power.

During the last BNP regime, which was totally pro China-Pak, four major anti-India terrorist camps were running in the Chittagong Hill Tracts with ISI and Al Qaeda instructors, Also, the Bangladesh Army was rehearsing ‘cold start’ into the Siliguri Corridor assisted by in-situ radicals-terrorists - possibly in conjunction with a Chinese thrust from the north. Hope our pundits who consider a national security strategy redundant, defence a side issue with minimal defence allocation, hide military’s manpower deficiencies under pretext of endangering national security, impose cuts on armed forces and force illogical schemes like Agniveers, can visualize the looming danger.

Management of the 4,096-km long border with Bangladesh will need more than just deploying more troops. The Modi government recently reverted DG BSF and the Special DG (West) to respective state cadres – a move viewed linked to increased infiltration in J&K’s Rajouri area. But before the current crisis in Bangladesh, how were reports coming periodically of infiltration from Bangladesh and cattle smuggling from India to Bangladesh when BSF guarding the border is directly under the Centre, not under state government? Few years back, India Today TV showed a BSF person sitting on the border with Bangladesh and infiltration taking place next to him in broad daylight. The video clip was taken off the air within minutes of being aired. Obviously prices were fixed for each infiltrator – adult and minor.   

Finally, India will need all its acumen to cope with this development, which will affect national defence, economy and rail-road links with Bangladesh,  especially with the US ready to backstab us anytime and northeast becoming a powder keg.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)