The fast-paced troops’ withdrawal amid stalled peace talks and rising violence in Afghanistan may undermine Islamabad’s influence to facilitate the Taliban's return to Kabul through power-sharing arrangements, says a report by the International Crisis Group.  

“Should the Afghan peace process continue to sputter or altogether fail, Islamabad’s relations with Kabul and Washington would sour,” the report, titled ‘Pakistan: Shoring Up Afghanistan’s Peace Process’ warned.

It also says that further instability or Taliban gains in Afghanistan could embolden Pakistani militants--particularly the Pakistani Taliban --aligned with their Afghan counterparts, deepening insecurity in Pakistan. The conflict can cause yet another massive influx of Afghan refugees.

 The report suggests Islamabad should reach out to Kabul to reduce mistrust, adding that Pakistan should use the access and leverage provided by its links with the Taliban to press the insurgents to reduce violence and negotiate a compromise on power-sharing arrangements. 

The prospect of strained ties with Kabul and Washington may further cause damage to Pakistan. “That’s why Pakistan should redouble its efforts to convince the Taliban to scale back both their attacks and their aspirations to reinstate their version of Islamic governance,” it says.

Furthermore, it says the Taliban’s continued reliance on violence to strengthen their bargaining position has also toughened Kabul’s position on this issue.

The report observed that US President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw all US troops by 11 September, even without a political settlement, has “tightened timelines for getting a peace process moving before the conflict intensifies”.

 (SAM)