Pakistan National Security Advisor Mooed Yusuf this week said in the United States that his country would not recognize a “forceful takeover” in Afghanistan and, without naming the Taliban, which is seen widely as a progeny of Islamabad, added they would support a negotiated settlement. The statement, however, somewhat contradicts the earlier position of the Pakistan government on the issue. 

Both Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid had earlier said that Pakistan would recognize any government which would have the support of the Afghan people-- a vague position but clear enough to indicate the country wasn’t averse to legitimising the Taliban even if the group came to power militarily. 

In March, Russia held a meeting of Troika Plus--which includes the US, China, Pakistan, and Russia-- in Moscow. The joint statement released by Troika Plus had clearly stated, “We do not support the restoration of the Islamic Emirate.”

Local media reports in Pakistan thereafter reported that the Taliban leaders weren’t happy with Pakistan joining the joint statement that denies the restoration of the Islamic Emirate, the brutal and pariah regime of the Taliban in Afghanistan between 1996-2001.

However, since then various senior Pakistani leaders, including Sheikh Rashid and Qureshi, haven’t explicitly reiterated that they won’t accept the Islamic Emirate next door. Instead, ever since the group intensified its military campaign and captured a large swathe of territory, leaders in Pakistan made statements, keeping the possibility of recognizing a government by the Taliban if it came to power militarily. 

Meanwhile, as the Taliban escalated its violence, Pakistan has increasingly been blamed for not putting enough pressure on the insurgents, who continue to operate from sanctuaries inside Pakistan. In July, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation, in a warning to the Taliban, said that the US will not recognize a government formed by force - an assertion recently repeated by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during his trip to India. 

The US special envoy also said Pakistan should exert more pressure on the Taliban for a negotiated settlement. Amid the increasingly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, the US might have been exerting more pressure on Pakistan, the primary backer of the Taliban, especially during the recent trip by Mooed. 

On Wednesday, Mooed said, “We will not accept a forceful takeover, We have made it absolutely clear that we are with the international community on where this goes," further adding, “But the world also needs to be clear that the US invests in a political settlement. ” 
  
However, many experts also contest the notion that Islamabad enjoys overwhelming influence over the Taliban. What is left of that influence, they say, has waned, especially after the US-Taliban deal, which gave the insurgent group legitimacy, prompting several nations to openly host the group’s leadership. 

On the question of Pakistan’s reluctance to close Taliban sanctuaries inside Pakistan, many say Islamabad may not like to risk irking the group at a time when they know that group has captured enough territory in Afghanistan to sustain their insurgency on its own from there. That step, at this stage, will only strain what is already a patchy relationship behind closed doors.

(SAM)