Indian Americans, who are growing in numbers and profile, and South Asians in general,  appear to overwhelmingly favour Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump for next month's US election, according to two recent polls.

The latest poll in five swing states by Indian American Impact (IAI) found that 68 per cent of South Asians back Democrat Harris, giving her a 48 per cent lead over Republican Trump, whose support was only 20 per cent among this community.

There are seven so-called swing states where neither party has a solid majority and, therefore, they play an important role in determining the winner.

IAI Executive Director Chintan Patel said during a community briefing on Wednesday that the poll was conducted in five of them - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania - where the number of South Asian voters is large enough to have an impact on the slim margins there that will determine the victor.

“The [margins in the] elections are razor thin, and our community is large enough to swing the election”, he said.

The other poll by Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIAV) last month found that 69 per cent of Indian Americans say they will vote for Harris, and 28 per cent for Trump. For the Democrats, it was an upswing from the 46 per cent who had said in April-May they would have voted for Biden when he was the candidate.

Asked which aspects of Harris’s identity was most important to them, only 23 per cent of Indian Americans picked her Asian Indian or South Asian heritage, while 42 per cent said it was her being a woman, 34 per cent her age, and 18 per cent her African identity.

In contrast, for some of the other Asian Americans, her identity as an Asian Indian/South Asian mattered more: Chinese (24 per cent), Filipino (35 per cent), Japanese (31 per cent), Korean (32 per cent), and Vietnamese (25 per cent). 

Severity-six per cent of Indian Americans had a favourable view of Harris 76 and 66 per cent of her vice presidential candidate Tim Walz. On the Republican side there was a surprise: While 31 per cent had a favourable view of Trump, only 19 per cent viewed JD Vance, who is married to an Indian American lawyer, favourably.

The APIAV poll was conducted by the National Opinion Research Center, a non-partisan organisation at the University of Chicago, and has a 4.7 per cent margin of error.

It found that 35 per cent of Indian Americans were concerned about violence during the elections and 48 per cent after.Fake news about candidates was considered a problem by 49 per cent, and legal challenges to the election by 41 per cent.

For voter turnout, 83 per cent were absolutely certain to vote, 13 per cent fairly certain, while 4 per cent were absolutely certain they will not vote.

In the AIA poll conducted by GBAO, 71 per cent of South Asians in the five swing states said they viewed Harris favourably, and “Trump, on the other hand, is deeply unpopular, with only 22 per cent” having a favourable view.

Inflation and the economy were the main issues influencing South Asian voters, with 26 per cent selecting them.

Abortion followed closely at 19 per cent, while foreign policy recorded 12 per cent.

Immigration with 6 per cent, came in a distant sixth after guns and health care as the issue articulating their choice although both parties have given it importance.

When only the Indian Americans in the AIA survey were asked who they trust to handle India-US relations, 59 per cent picked Harris and only 22 per cent Trump.

Answering a similar question in the APAIV poll, 54 per cent of Indian Americans picked Harris, and Trump only 22.

Harris scored higher on this question with 65 per cent of Japanese Americans saying she could be trusted to do a better job of handling India-US relations, while only 45 per cent of Chinese and Vietnamese said so.

On relations between the US and China, 56 per cent of Indians picked Harris to do a better job, while only 45 per cent of Chinese Americans said she would, while in both communities 21 per cent opted for Trump.

GBAO is described on the web by one of its principals, Michael Bociane, as “one of the leading Democratic polling firms in the country”. The poll has a 4 per cent margin of error.

(The writer is a New York-based Indian journalist and Nonresident Fellow, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. Views are personal. He can be reached at arulouis@yahoo.com)