As the civil war in Myanmar intensifies, the insurgent Arakan Army (AA) has emerged as a formidable force against Myanmar military in Rakhine State. Recent escalation in hostilities between the rebel group and the military in Rakhine has not only disrupted the junta’s hold in the region but also poses serious security threat to Bangladesh. Besides stray mortar shelling in Bangladesh’s bordering regions last month, AA rebels even kidnapped innocent fishermen from the Naf river that Bangladesh shares with Myanmar. 

On October 27, 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BTA), composed of the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army and numbering some 15,000 fighters, launched Operation 1027, an anti-SAC offensive in Shan State. The coalition had been preparing for this offensive for years, according to local interlocutors, and its forces were equipped with advanced weapons, including drones acquired on foreign markets.

The Arakan Army, founded in 2009, initially aimed at gaining greater autonomy for the Rakhine people. Since the offensive last October, it has actually steered close to its goal and undoubtedly has become one of the strongest pillars challenging the Myanmar junta in the ongoing civil war. The rebel group has taken control of more than half the Rakhine State – nine of its 17 townships. They have seized key territories in the neighbouring Chin State as well. The AA’s tactical prowess and strategic territorial gains have drawn the attention of regional stakeholders, including Bangladesh. The proximity of AA operations to this border has heightened security concerns for Bangladesh, as cross-border skirmishes and the potential for infiltration increase.

Conflict escalation and security implications

On May 22, Arakan Army launched a large-scale attack on Maungdaw town in northwestern Rakhine State near the border with Bangladesh. If the Arakan Army can seize Maungdaw, only one town in northern Rakhine will remain under the regime’s control: Sittwe, the state’s capital. Capturing Maungdaw will also give the Arakan Army control over the 270-km border with Bangladesh. That possibility does not seem far-fetched as the group has captured more than 10 junta camps in Rakhine State's Maungdaw in less than two weeks, killing about 200 junta troops.

The AA’s intensified activities near the border areas in southeastern Bangladesh, particularly in Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar, have experienced stray gunfire, mortar shelling, and airstrikes from Myanmar forces. These incidents have not only caused casualties among Bangladeshi civilians but have also forced thousands to flee their homes, creating a humanitarian crisis.

Just this month, ferry services on the Teknaf-Saint Martin route have been suspended since 6 June due to firing from Myanmar. This had caused a massive food shortage in the region endangering lives of more than 10000 residents. Often shots were fired at trawlers and boats to Saint Martin's. One of such trawlers was carrying Bangladeshi election officials. Arakan Army members are believed to have fired the shots.

The conflict has also led to an influx of displaced persons, including Myanmar Border Guard Police personnel, into Bangladesh. More than 752 fleeing junta personnel and their families have been repatriated since mid-February after the AA launched offensives near Rakhine’s international border. This sudden influx strains security for Bangladesh-Myanmar border which is already a contested place due to Myanmar people trying to enter the country illegally especially the Rohingya community still living in Myanmar.

Bangladesh’s internal security is already complicated as it is with the existence of over a million Rohingya refugees residing in camps in Bangladesh. The potential for further displacement due to ongoing violence in Rakhine and Chin states remains high, posing a continuous threat to Bangladesh’s border security and humanitarian stability.

Broader concerns of Rakhine fallouot

Beyond the immediate border incidents, the presence of the AA near Bangladesh raises broader security concerns. The AA’s control over large swathes of territory in Rakhine State, including strategic border areas, increases the risk of arms smuggling, human trafficking, and other illicit activities. Bangladesh's geography puts it at the heart of three major Asian drug trade routes - the Golden Wedge, the Golden Triangle and the Golden Crescent. This makes the country a lucrative transit for the region's drugs, especially from Myanmar and India, undermining Bangladesh’s internal security.

The AA’s conflict with the Myanmar military has the potential to draw in other armed groups and create a broader insurgency landscape. This could lead to a spillover of violence into Bangladesh, exacerbating its security challenges. The presence of armed militants in close proximity to Bangladeshi territory necessitates a robust security response to prevent infiltration and maintain regional stability. 

AA needs to respect Bangladesh's interests

The AA had previously  assured that they will cooperate regarding border stability issues with neighbouring countries. These words seem hollow when they still have not apologized for the cross-border deaths of Bangladeshi civilians caused by their fighting. The show of utmost disrespect to Bangladesh’s neutrality by kidnapping Bangladeshi fishermen fishing and firing at Bangladeshi trawlers within the borders of their own country is totally inexcusable.

Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal are two routes for Arakan or the Rakhine State’s contact with the outside world. Due to the location of Saint Martin’s, most of the north Bay of Bengal is within Bangladesh’s maritime boundary. For the future growth of Rakhine State, creating a friendly relationship with Bangladesh should be priority for the Arakan Army, not provoking the neighbouring country.

As this situation evolves, Dhaka must remain vigilant and proactive in managing the implications of the AA’s activities to safeguard its national security and humanitarian interests. Diplomatic engagement and cooperation among the parties are essential to ensuring the security and stability of Bangladesh.

(The author is doing her MSS in Peace and Conflict Studies, Dhaka University, Bangladesh. Views are personal. She can be reached at sadiakorobi007@gmail.com)