Although not a direct party to the India-Pakistan conflict, Sri Lanka and other South Asian neighbours are significantly influenced by its ripple effects. From strategic defense postures to trade policies and foreign alignments, they must constantly adapt to the changing regional dynamics shaped by its two powerful nations in the sub-region. Promoting peace and cooperation in South Asia would not only benefit India and Pakistan but also contribute to greater stability and prosperity for smaller nations like Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka, with its strategic location in the Indian Ocean, becomes a key point of interest in any security recalibrations. India’s naval presence and interest in countering any Pakistani influence in the region can impact Sri Lanka’s defense partnerships and military autonomy.

Sri Lanka often finds itself navigating a diplomatic tightrope. While it shares strong cultural, economic, and historical ties with India, it also engages with Pakistan through trade, defense training, and political goodwill. The India-Pakistan rivalry sometimes limits Sri Lanka’s foreign policy options and restricts deeper ties with one country for fear of antagonizing the other.

The India-Pakistan conflict, rooted in decades of territorial, political, and religious disputes—especially over Kashmir—has not only strained bilateral relations but also reverberated across South Asia.

Sri Lanka’s another concern is that the regional instability due to Indo-Pak tensions affects the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which includes Sri Lanka. SAARC’s effectiveness has been severely weakened due to the India-Pakistan standoff, limiting opportunities for regional trade integration and economic collaboration.

One of the neighboring countries affected by this ongoing conflict is Sri Lanka. Though not directly involved, Sri Lanka experiences both strategic and economic consequences due to tensions between its two powerful neighbors.

Peace loving people in the world were anxious about a possible nuclear war when the two South Asian nuclear powers went eyeball to eyeball in armed conflict. The main worry of the close neighbours was their lack of high alert for such an eventuality.

Popular Sunday Times lamented that such an eventuality had not even crossed the minds of those in the National Security Council in Sri Lanka given that the government was struggling to issue even a statement on the events unfolding. Sri Lanka seemed so blissfully unaware of the dangerous buildup in the subcontinent.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake thought it fit to issue a statement only after the two conflicting neighbours agreed on cessation of violence after the round of warring following the dastardly killings of innocent tourists in the idyllic Indian-controlled Kashmir hillside by dreaded terrorists.

Danger for South Asia

After the Pahalgam attack, India upped the ante by firing missiles into the Nur Khan airbase, the garrison town close to the Pakistani military capital of Rawalpindi, while Pakistan sent 300-400 drones testing Indian air defences.

Reportedly, a Chinese-made air-to-air missile (P-15) fired by a Pakistan pilot hit an Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafale jet, which was recently purchased from France. There was a brief usage of cutting-edge air defence technology in warfare, with sophisticated electronics and AI (Artificial Intelligence) in real time redefining military balances the world over.

This conflict has unfolded the grave danger that could be devastating for the South Asian region. It has shown the new reality and level of risk unfolded in Sri Lanka’s neighbourhood with wider geostrategic and security implications. If the simmering bilateral confrontation went beyond Kashmir, escalating into a nuclear war it could even draw in extra-regional superpowers and middle powers into the unfolding events.

“It played out in the skies over the Himalayas, not in the oceans of the Indo-Pacific where the theatre of tension has been so far,” said the Sunday Times editorial and expressed relief that had ended with a tenuous ceasefire.

New arms race

The brief episode was also an eye-opener to the future of warfare and technology. The Chinese P-15 was part pilot, part AI, satellites and sensors executed by machine—a practical demonstration of the next generation of automated warfare.

This show of strengths and weaknesses will usher in a new arms race. Defence budgets of the Western world will now expand to even greater heights. The multi trillion-dollar arms industry will be fed to match the Chinese technology.

As military experts pointed out, the battle drew attention to the gaps and limitations of existing frameworks on weapons and related strategic doctrines, including the ethical and humanitarian implications of the advent of AI-powered Lethal Autonomous Weapons as well as the existing nuclear non-proliferation framework—both topics under multilateral consideration at the UN.

Shaping regional dynamics

This will surely lead to spiralling defence expenditure, including in countries that can little afford it, and greater budget cuts on agreed global objectives, including poverty alleviation and climate financing, and slashing of further spending to the United Nations agencies like the World Health Organisation. A new arms race with regional powers going for nuclear weapons is an existential challenge to non-nuclear weapons states, including Sri Lanka.

Last but not the least, India and Pakistan’s rivalry has also opened the door for external powers, particularly China, to gain influence in the region. Sri Lanka’s increasing engagement with China (e.g., the Hambantota Port deal) has become a strategic concern for India, pushing New Delhi to reassert its influence over Colombo. The India-Pakistan dynamic thus indirectly shapes Sri Lanka’s geopolitical alignments and infrastructure decisions.

(The author, a former Sri Lankan diplomat, is a political and strategic affairs commentator. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at sugeeswara@gmail.com)