2025 was perhaps the hardest year for India’s external affairs ministry (MEA) with several events, processes and narratives getting out of manageable control. India started the year with a sense of comfort and friendships but India’s global outlook at the end of year is much more pessimistic than it was at the start of the year. 

The world order itself has undergone a significant change in 2025 as each country became more inward looking and one might say selfish and, on the liberal side, there seems to be no one thinking about the idea of order as such. It is China that seems to have emerged as the major thinker of what the world order should be like since it is a revisionist power and not hiding its great power ambitions anymore.

There are three perennial challenges to India’s foreign policy, much through the history of India’s foreign relations: United States, Pakistan and China continue to be the drivers of how India sees the world and, in 2025, they seem to be acting in unison. The three issues discussed below highlight their centrality and importance.

Sino-Pak Collusion

Perhaps the most important event shaping India’s foreign policy discourse was the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22 which led to 26 deaths and shattered the image of normalcy and stability in the Kashmir region. Operation Sindoor followed soon after, leading to an undisclosed number of losses to the Indian Air Force, and the government has yet to come out with the exact numbers of losses and kills. India seemed to have won strategically but lost tactically in managing the narrative of victory as was visible. There were also several games at play as Donald Trump claimed having played a decisive role in initiating a ceasefire whereas India denied this and maintained that it was Pakistan which asked for cessation of aggression. Denying a moral victory to President Trump may have played a role in the tariffs India faced later, according to some analysts. On the other hand, Pakistan’s leadership not only praised Trump for his role in ending the conflict but also nominated him for the Nobel peace prize.

During Op Sindoor itself, it was visible that there was a direct tactical collusion between Pakistan and China, but the Indian authorities never acknowledged it, whereas China-Pakistan collusion against India has been India’s biggest strategic concern as fears of a two-front war have dominated New Delhi’s strategic thinking. India also had to invest considerable amounts of energy and resources in showcasing India’s righteousness during the entire episode as was seen from the several parliamentarian delegations that visited many countries across the world. However, their presence, and the narratives they presented, was reported more in the domestic media than in the countries they visited. 

Tariffs and Sanctions

The second episode was the US tariffs on India, controlling of H1B visas and its impact on India. There is also a significant trade order disruption globally and India is paying a price for that. America’s aggressive trade posture has created structural damages to the foundations of India-US relations. This may be the bigger concern for New Delhi. President Trump used offensive language to address India’s relations with Russia and its restrictive market policies. However, as noted by scholars, India’s concerns with US demands, particularly in agriculture and other sectors are genuine and not likely to shift in a short term. India also eased restrictions on imports from the US, and this year saw the launch of Tesla motors in India.

India has also had to reduce its oil imports from Russia as a consequence of Trump’s policies, including criticism and sanctions. Images of Modi’s private car ride and extended talks with Putin and then his recent generous hosting in New Delhi notwithstanding, India has had to buckle under the US demands. India’s FTA discussions with the US and Europe are also not progressing as expected with several bilateral concerns not being addressed. Scholars also have argued that FTAs don’t work for India since India’s lack of domestic reforms don’t allow it to benefit from the FTAs, instead in most cases showing worsening trade deficits.

Chinese Checkers 

China, the dragon, is literally the elephant in the room as far as India is concerned. India’s power gap with China has only increased in the recent past and that is the principal driver of how China sees India. India’s relations with China warmed up significantly in 2025 with Prime Minister Modi undertaking his first China visit in more than seven years. While this happened to a large extent due to the American trade restrictions that both China and India have faced, warming relations with India did not stop Chinese officials from holding up an Indian national from Arunachal Pradesh for an undue amount of time. China also started building its largest dam in Tibet on Yarlung, or the Brahmaputra, which makes India fear China’s potential strategic use of the transboundary river. Thus, China’s coercive tactics are not going away anytime soon.

Bangladesh Crisis

Closer home, Bangladesh and its radical Islamist turn has surprised many. In recent times, attacks on the Hindu minority have been increasing with lynching and arson incidents being noted in India. It marks another low point in India-Bangladesh relations, which is already strained as former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s extradition issue gets raised again.

Tough Year

Lastly, India finds itself out of the US led coalition, Pax-Silica, on critical and mineral technologies and resources. This is a significant strategic concern as China remains the only alternative major source of rare earth elements, which are literally critical for India’s energy and technology transition. While there is a similar initiative in the Quad, the grouping itself faces a doubtful future as the US looks inwards. Other initiatives like the India Middle East Europe Corridor (IMEC) also seem to be in doubt.

2025 was also the year when there was a rise of anti-India sentiment across several parts of the world. The handcuffed illegal aliens, that is Indian deportees, shoved into military aircraft didn’t make for a good national image, but the government didn’t seem to react to it at least publicly. The rhetoric that the Indian community is genuinely welcome as a contributor to innovation, consumption and growth seems to be waning with India-focused anti-immigration policies undertaken particularly in Canada and Australia. The United Kingdom has also changed its visa rules to make it more difficult for foreign students to stay on after their degrees and this primarily affects Indian students.

Overall, 2025 was a tough year for India’s foreign policy with choices being curtailed and by the end of the year India’s foreign policy once again appears to be driven more by constraints, opportunities and choices.

(The author is Professor and Associate Academic Dean at Jindal School of Liberal Arts and Humanities, O P Jindal Global University, Sonipat, India. Views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at agodbole@jgu.edu.in. This series is curated by Prof Avinash Godbole and Prof Sreeradha Datta, JGU.)