Over the last 16 months, Manipur, a state situated in the northeastern part of India, has been in turmoil due to the ethnic clashes between Kukis and Meiteis, with no signs of the violence coming to an end. With the looting of over 5,000 automatic rifles and 500,000 rounds of live ammunition by various ragtag mobs, the ethnic violence has spiraled into a civil war-like situation. Recently, the use of drone bombing, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and missiles has heightened the conflict with increased debate and implicating the involvement of foreign hands, implying a direct threat to its internal security. 

Over the past months since the violence erupted, the question of the failure of internal security has been a hot topic of debate with the state's inability to maintain order. There are recent reports of use of highly sophisticated weapons in the Koutruk area, a small village in Imphal West district, Manipur. The Increased insurgent growth in the past few months and the administrative divides between Kukis and Meiteis again point to the failure of internal security. 

Growing extremism and insurgent population

Extremist groups and insurgent organizations have grown significantly in the state. Among the radical groups that identify as socio-cultural organizations are the Arambai Tengol. However, many scholars, particularly those from the Kuki community, have challenged this, accusing the ‘Arambai Tengol’ of being a radicalized, armed militia. According to reports compiled by "The Print," Arambai Tengol, a radical Meitei group with only 7,000 members as of March 2023, now has 50,000 members. Other insurgent groups include the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Kangleipak Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), and the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP).

The conflict has plagued the state since May 2023, resulting in 60,000 displaced and more than 226 deaths. The economic hardships and challenges in finding means of livelihood have exacerbated tensions. Taking advantage of the ethnic conflict, insurgent organizations have scaled up their recruitment process citing instability and whipping up nationalist sentiments.  This is making the civil conflict even more chaotic, compounding the decades-old counter-insurgency challenges in the region and highlighting the collective failure of both the state and central intelligence in addressing the threat perceptions. 

Conflicting Interests and administrative divisions

There are numerous interpretations about the cause of conflict. However, the conflict of interest between the two parties regarding the affirmative action (Schedule Tribe demand) by the Meitei community is the immediate cause. Demands that are in contradiction with one another are growing as the dispute drags on. Consider the paramilitary force that is stationed in Manipur to reduce strife. The Meitei community demands that Assam Rifles stay out of the 'war' since they are accused of helping suspected Kuki terrorists avoid capture. The Kukis, however, reject these requests and acknowledge that the Assam Rifles have a legitimate obligation to carry on. An additional instance could be the Kuki's demand for a separate government, ideally a Union Territory, which the Meiteis reject because the state's territorial integrity could not be compromised. 

These conflicts of interest suggest animosity between the two communities and often lead to violence. This indicates how complex the situation is and suggests a holistic solution. But the lack of immediate solution implies more violence in the near future. 

Following the conflict's outbreak in Churachandpur on May 3, 2023, there were other acts of violence throughout the state, from burning down homes to targeting schools and sites of worship in places like Moreh, Imphal, and Churachandpur. People from the opposing group, even those hired by the government, moved from their original residences to the ethnically dominant areas in search of security as a result of the ongoing violence. As a result, each community in its particular territory manages its own administration, often leading to communal polarisation, besides disrupting the state's administrative hierarchical structure.  This lack of administrative cooperation and information facilitation between the rival community administrations is leading to increased discord among administrative personnel.

Foreign involvement and regional Implications

Historically, there has always existed a close linkage between insurgent groups in the region, such as the Naga Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) and other groups like The People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) and People Liberation Army (PLA) with elements in China. These ties have led to the illegal supply of arms from the Kunming province of China via Myanmar with the Kachin rebels acting as conduits. 

Cross-border arms and drug trafficking has always been there in the region, with recent reports suggesting large quantities of guns being shipped to Manipur from an illicit market located close to the border between China and Myanmar. Drugs are being used by the insurgent group to finance their procurement of arms and fund other illicit activities.  The arrest of a Myanmarese national who was part of the Kuki National Army (Burma) by the Assam Rifles has exposed the operation of an illegal arms syndicate in Manipur. 

The inability of the state and central government to manage the conflict has allowed extremist groups to gain strength, capitalized by nationalist sentiments and instability. The conflict has also disrupted the administrative structure, complicating efforts to restore order. Additionally, the involvement of foreign elements escalated the situation, posing a significant threat to the state's internal security and national security at large. 

The longer the violence continues, the more entrenched the insurgent groups become, creating an increasingly complex and dangerous environment. Without decisive intervention to address the underlying causes of the conflict and restore law and order, Manipur risks further destabilization with consequences for India’s border security framework.  

(The author is a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University, India. His areas of interest include Northeast politics, ethnic conflict, and insurgencies. Views are personal. He can be contacted at leovictornr@outlook.com )