There is no alternative to elections for sustaining democracy in any country. In Bangladesh’s history, fair electoral systems have repeatedly been disrupted. To date, the country has held 12 parliamentary elections. Except for those held in 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2008, all others have been widely regarded as questionable.

Following the 2008 election, the subsequent polls in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were largely considered political showcases — often described by the public as “selections, not elections.” These processes effectively rendered Sheikh Hasina an unelected prime minister. Last 16 years the people of Bangladesh have been deprived of the right to a free and fair election, an unfortunate reality for a nation.

In August 2024, Bangladesh witnessed the largest mass uprising in its history which led to the fall of Sheikh Hasina's sixteen-year regime. Following the collapse of her government, Bangladesh is now preparing for its 13th national election, expected in early 2026. Will this upcoming election restore democracy? Does uncertainty still surround the country's political future after 54 years of independence? 

Far-reaching Electoral Changes

Following the July uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina, the interim government led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus has banned the Awami League under the Anti-Terrorism Act. The government has also introduced significant reforms concerning eligibility to contest elections. Under the revised law, effective immediately, any individual formally accused of crimes against humanity is barred from running for office. This includes persons charged by the International Crimes Tribunal, which is investigating alleged atrocities committed during the July 2024 uprising. Once formal charges are filed, the accused automatically becomes disqualified from contesting elections — whether for Parliament or local government. As a result, Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League will be unable to participate in the next national polls.

In the absence of the ousted Awami League, former allies such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami have taken increasingly divergent positions ahead of the election. Many smaller political parties remain divided between these two blocs, but they are still widely recognized as “anti–Awami League” forces.

Meanwhile, several groups have demanded that the Jatiya Party, once seen as the official opposition but widely regarded as pro–Awami League, also could be barred from contesting the election. Some political groups argue that until the trials of alleged crimes are concluded, the Awami League, its allies Jatiya Party, and the entire 14-Party Alliance should be excluded from the electoral process. If this occurs, the 2026 election would effectively be limited to anti–Awami League forces.

During the Awami League era, no political party was officially banned from elections by executive order. The BNP and its allies boycotted the 2014 and 2024 elections, demanding a neutral caretaker authority to oversee fair polls. Jamaat-e-Islami, however, lost its registration and electoral symbol following a Supreme Court ruling. During Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, the judiciary was often used to exert control over political opposition. This time, the situation is different, the interim government has suspended the Awami League’s political activities and the Election Commission has frozen its registration. No similar decision has yet been taken regarding the Jatiya Party or other members of the 14-Party Alliance.

Elections Will Lack Inclusivity

Recently, six international human rights organizations sent a joint letter to Muhammad Yunus expressing concern over the ban on the Awami League. They urged the government to lift the sweeping restrictions imposed under the Anti-Terrorism Act, arguing that these curtail freedom of assembly and expression and undermine the prospects for a genuine multiparty democracy. The groups also called for an end to arbitrary arrests and detentions, emphasizing that the interim government must respond transparently to these concerns.

Chief Adviser’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam recently said at a press conference that officials who had “minimum involvement” in the last three elections will not be assigned any duties in the upcoming parliamentary election. The decision was reportedly made at a high-level meeting chaired by Yunus. This announcement by the interim government has sparked widespread discussion. That could potentially create new divisions within the bureaucracy.

However, as a party, the Awami League is largely responsible for the destruction of the electoral system in Bangladesh. After an uprising in 2024, Bangladesh is currently walking on the path to its national election in early 2026. If the ousted Awami League and its allies remain ineligible to participate in the next parliamentary election, ultimately, the central question remains: how will their huge number of supporters exercise their right to vote? Excluding a major political ideology from the electoral process risks making the election less inclusive and could generate new tensions, jeopardizing the country’s fragile path toward multiparty democracy.    

(The author is a New York-based South Asian geopolitical analyst. Views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at kiphayet@gmail.com)