Ethnic violence erupted in Manipur on May 3, 2023, between the majority Meitei population that lives in the Imphal Valley and the Kuki Zo community inhabiting the surrounding hills. By May this year, over 221 persons had been killed, 67,000 displaced, thousands injured, scores missing, 3,786 houses burnt and 386 religious structures vandalized in Manipur.

The violence became more virulent as the state-supported ethnic cleansing experiment was augmented with the 50-60,00 strong armed Arambai Tengol that was given a free hand to “rule” the Imphal Valley. In addition, is the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), who officially signed a peace deal and reportedly surrendered their arms, but whose cadres are roaming freely with their arms and have been allowed to establish posts.  

The terrorist-politico nexus forced the Army to hand over captured armed KYKL terrorists and let go of vehicles carrying consignments of smuggled arms for Meitei terrorists. There is no further news of Manipur MLA Thaounaojam Shyamkumar Singh, the politician-terrorist who forced an army column to hand over 12 armed KYKL. He is probably a state guest?  Abductions, rapes, killings and extortion became the norm in Manipur (https://www.southasiamonitor.org/perspective/manipur-continues-bleed-political-skullduggery-continues).

There has been a consistent campaign to malign the Army and the Assam Rifles, falsely accusing them of siding them with the Kuki-Zo, with calls to oust them from the state. Gangs of Meitei women are used to block the movement of security forces and assist the state-sponsored campaign. The Assam Rifles has suffered casualties in operations and so has the CRPF with one of the CRPF posts attacked.   

Post-election scenario

The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has blamed the NSCN-IM supported by the KYKL and the People’s Liberation Army of Manipur for the violence in Manipur. Still, it has not made any mention whatsoever of the violence perpetrated by the Arambai Tengol and the UNLF  (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/manipur-violence-china-myanmar-module-of-nscn-im-helped-banned-outfits-says-nia/articleshow/110165805.cms?from=mdr).

With the mayhem in Manipur and Arambai Tengol operating as the state’s private militia, Chief Minister Biren Singh should have been replaced last year itself and President’s rule imposed. But that did not happen since he is a favourite of the Centre. It is therefore no surprise that in the recent general elections the people of Manipur voted for Congress for all three Lok Sabha seats. This was also because the Modi government kept painting a rosy picture of normalcy in Manipur and the prime minister, who is generally omnipresent across India, did not visit Manipur even once or even mention it.

Following the general elections, CM Biren Singh has been summoned to Delhi. Now the question being asked around is whether normalcy can return to Manipur and in what time frame. There are many factors involved: one, ethnic cleansing and violence over the past year has raised hatred between Meitei and Kuki-Zo to unprecedented levels; two, Nagas in Manipur, who wanted to stay aloof, have also been attacked by Meitei; three, the key lies in a political solution but the state government and the Centre continue to signal a policy of letting the situation drift.

Free hand to Arambai Tenggol

It is well known that the Kuki-Zo and Nagas are Christians and both live in the hills surrounding the Imphal Valley. But the propaganda on social media in the run-up to the general elections was that the Congress wanted to carve out a Christian ‘colony’ in Manipur. This, however, did not work as the results of the elections show – the majority of voters being the Meitei of Imphal Valley. The population has given its verdict. But are they sitting ducks amid the dirty politics of ethnic cleansing or will the political dispensation at the state level and the Centre reverse course?

The problem will be the well-armed Arambai Tenggol, the Meitei activist organisation,  supported by the state government as well as the UNLF and affiliated terrorist groups. The extent to which Arambai Tenggol has been given a free hand can be gauged from the fact that before the elections the organization issued a decree directing all party candidates to refrain from extravagant public campaigning, imposing a moratorium on feasts, loudspeakers, flag-raising, and door-to-door visits (https://frontline.thehindu.com/the-nation/arambai-tenggol-manipur-meitei-organisation-militia-targeting-kuki-zo/article68210312.ece#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20Arambai%20Tenggol%20was,ceremony%E2%80%9D%20at%20his%20Imphal%20residence).

Then there is the issue of taking full control of the narcotics smuggling and trade in Manipur, which according to sources amounts to Rs 50,000 crore, much more than the state budget. Also, the state government had signed a deal with a corporation to provide 6,000 hectares of land for palm plantation and taken an unknown amount of advance money. This was one reason why some of the Kuki-Zo were being flushed out from their homes and land they had lived in for decades.

A recurrent fear is that the Assam Rifles, who man the buffer zone between the Imphal Valley and the hill sector (which the Meitei have been periodically breaching), could be returned to the barracks to facilitate an all-out offensive, spearheaded by the Arambai TengGol, against the Kuki-Zo, followed by attacking the Nagas. This will be catastrophic for the region and the country. Hope better sense prevails.   

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)