KP Sharma Oli, Chairman of CPN (UML), has been appointed Prime Minister of Nepal for the fourth time to lead the new coalition government. Since 2008 when monarchy was abolished, Nepal has witnessed 13 governments. 

The CPN (UML) has issued a statement saying Oli will follow a "neutral" foreign policy focused on securing national interests and territorial integrity, while not allowing anyone to use its territory to target any third country, which appears to be a political statement sans substance.

Mao Zhedong claimed Tibet as the palm of China - which China invaded and occupied in 1950 - and Nepal as one of its five fingers, implying Nepal must be made part of China. Therefore, Mao initiated, armed and supported the Maoist insurgency in Nepal that eventually resulted in a 10 years and nine months bloody civil war (February 1996 to November 2006).

Blue-eyed boys of Beijing?

KP Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda were Beijing’s blue-eyed boys during the Maoist insurgency and China has continued to nurture them ever since, ensuring Nepal either has a communist government or a coalition in which either Oli, Prachanda or both hold sway over Kathmandu. China succeeded in merging the CPN (UML) headed by Oli and the Maoist Centre led by Prachanda to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). But the NCP dissolved in March 2021 after it underwent an internal split in 2020 because of disagreements between Oli and Prachanda. Since then China has continued to nurture Oli and Prachanda,

During Oli’s second premiership, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Nepal on October 12-13, 2019, the first Chinese president to visit Nepal after 1996.  During Xi’s visit, the Nepal-China bilateral partnership was elevated to ‘Strategic Partnership of Cooperation Featuring Ever-lasting Friendship for Development and Prosperity’; execution of the Belt and Road Initiative was accelerated; and the China-Nepal Agreement on Boundary Management System was signed among 16 others.

On June 13, 2020, the Oli government issued a new map of Nepal showing the Indian areas of Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura as Nepalese territory without discussing the border with India or even the Indian embassy in Kathmandu. Notably, the then Chinese ambassador to China had considerable influence over Oli.  

Chinese encroachment into Nepal 

Oli’s confrontationist approach went beyond claiming Indian areas to establishing new posts and helipads close to the Kalapani area and for the first time in 70 years deployed Nepalese army in these posts. The Chinese firm First Highway Engineering was awarded the contract for construction of the Kathmandu-Terai-Madhesh Expressway  - for which India’s Afcons Infrastructure was also competing -  and China was given oil drilling rights in the Terai region bordering India.

Concurrent with Oli making claims on Indian areas, the Chinese PLA and border police occupied Nepalese territory in the Limi Lapcha area of Namkha Gaupalika (rural municipality) of Humla by removing the boundary pillars and constructing nine buildings. In June 2020, Nepal's Survey Department of Agriculture Ministry claimed China had encroached in 10 places comprising nearly 33 hectares of Nepalese land and that China was also diverting the flow of rivers to increase its territory. However, the Oli government looked the other way ignoring these Chinese intrusions.

Seven years back in 2017, a report quoted Khorshid Alam, head of Nepal’s Islamic Society, as saying that about 100,000 Nepalese had converted to Islam over the past 15 years and the number is expected to rise (https://www.timesheadline.com/world/conversion-islam-growing-nepal-7551.html). It is not the Muslim population of Nepal that is a threat but what matters is how many of them the ISI can radicalize and use against India in conjunction with the Chinese intelligence. The China-Pakistan sub-conventional nexus has made surreptitious inroads into Nepal where organizations like the Tehfuzul Madrasa provide safe houses that Pakistan’s ISI and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) have been using for sleeper cells to target India. This has the potential of unlimited hybrid war on India through the porous India-Nepal border with serious security implications for India.

Agnipath scheme seen as anti-Nepal 

The Oli government may say it would not allow anyone to use Nepalese territory to target any third country but this has been already happening in the past through the India-Nepal border – including sabotage of the Indian railway system. This was also hinted at by Prime Minister Narendra Modi a few years back after a number of train accidents.

Nepal is the only Hindu kingdom of the world with constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy. The royal massacre in Nepal on June 1, 2001 was also to China’s advantage. India has a declared policy of ‘Neighbourhood First’. However, Nepal’s land blockade from the Indian side in 2015 causing severe shortages in Nepal, including of food items and medicines. Nepal squarely blamed this to the “strong arm” tactics adopted by India. 

In recent years, India introduced the Agnipath system of recruitment in its military, denying regular recruitment to thousands of Nepalese Gurkhas into the Indian Army,  not only aggravating unemployment in Nepal, but more importantly, shattering the strong bond between the Indian and Nepalese armies. Agnipath degrades combat effectiveness of the Indian military particularly at the cutting edge (https://youtu.be/s-yti2u6WPg?si=TESaRdJ-1itE3fuf) 

In an era where unemployed youth are joining terrorist organizations or foreign armies -  for instance Indian and Nepalese youth fighting in Ukraine - where is the doubt that China will not use Nepalese youth against India?

China’s grip on Nepal 

Speaking to the media before he became prime minister of Nepal for the first time, Prachanda had reportedly said, “Our ultimate fight will be with the Indian Army.” Beijing has been according him red carpet treatment (akin to a head of state) even when he visited China not in capacity of prime minister of Nepal. In 2024, the Prachanda government issued coins having maps showing Indian areas of Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura as part of Nepal – maps printed by Nepal during Oli’s premiership in June 2020.

China’s hold on Nepal should be expected to continue with Oli and Prachanda alternating in the power centers of Kathmandu.   

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)