Due to the domestic political turmoil, Bangladesh established an interim government on August 8 and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus is serving as the chief advisor. The tenure of the interim government remains unclear and reports indicate that many members of the international community have expressed their willingness to cooperate with the newly formed administration. 

Admittedly, the current crisis in Bangladesh is the product of various factors, and the reform of the quota system in public jobs is only the prelude to unveiling deeper challenges. How the interim government behaves remains to be seen, including its foreign policy. In this context, there is a need to analyze the current relationship between China and Bangladesh and look ahead to its future.

Although China and Bangladesh are not contiguous, both sides consider each other to be significant actors in their regional diplomacy. The two sides established their strategic partnership of cooperation in 2016 and elevated it to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership not long ago. In the past decade, the two nations have carried out extensive cooperation in the fields of politics, economy, culture, education, and tackling climate change. The interaction between the two sides has increased significantly, particularly at the economic and trade level.

It is reported the total bilateral trade between China and Bangladesh reached 23.97 billion US dollars in 2023. China is Bangladesh's largest trading partner and the second-largest source of foreign investment. According to the information of the Embassy of China in Bangladesh, by the end of 2023, Chinese investment in Bangladesh had grown to nearly USD 1.4 billion. The two sides have made collaborative strides in infrastructure construction, digital economy, clean energy, agriculture, and education. In addition, both sides are actively advancing negotiations on the FTA.

Ties have strong resilience 

It is worth noting that the ties between the two countries have also shown strong resilience in the face of domestic political changes in Bangladesh and external factors such as international situation changes. It was reported that Md Touhid Hossain, foreign affairs adviser of the interim government, met with China's ambassador to Bangladesh. During the meeting, he emphasized that the interim government was eager to cooperate closely with China and expressed the intention to seek China's support in overcoming current economic challenges. This resilience undoubtedly stems from the mutual benefits between the two sides. 

On the one hand, Bangladesh’s development requires external resources and technology, and cooperation with China is in line with national interests. China is also an important pillar in Bangladesh’s balanced diplomatic strategy. On the other hand, for China, Bangladesh is not only an important economic partner in South Asia but also an active participant in the Belt and Road Initiative. There have been many successful cooperation projects between the two countries which add to the resilience of the two relations. For example, the China-funded Dashergandi Sewage Treatment Plant project was officially completed in July 2023 and it is Bangladesh’s first modern large-scale sewage treatment plant.

Outlook for China-Bangladesh relations

The future is undoubtedly uncertain. Given the interim government’s primary focus on maintaining and restoring domestic stability, it’s unlikely that significant energy and resources will be available for a major overhaul of its foreign policy blueprint. So, Bangladesh’s foreign policy is likely to follow the emphasis already made by Touhid Hossain, that is, to continue pursuing a balanced strategy among major powers. However, uncertainty and the unknown always co-exist, which is also causing concern and unease among the relevant stakeholders. For instance, there has been a concern about India-Bangladesh relations in India's domestic strategic circles recently. Additionally, other nations, including the United States and Japan, are likely also monitor new developments and actively engage with the interim government to ensure their interests are not lost.

 For now, it appears that China may not need to be concerned about any major downturn in bilateral ties with Bangladesh, and there are indeed reasons to expect further development potential. Nonetheless, the challenges confronting the ties also should be a focus of concern for both sides.

First, the unstable political situation in Bangladesh may affect bilateral project cooperation and Chinese enterprises operating in Bangladesh. At present, there are more than 670 Chinese enterprises operating in Bangladesh. The current crisis in Bangladesh has already impacted some Chinese enterprises. Political instability may increase the risk of China's investment in Bangladesh, and Chinese enterprises may be cautious about further investment in Bangladesh.

Second, the intensification of geopolitical competition in the Bay of Bengal region may affect the healthy interaction between China and Bangladesh. Bangladesh, strategically located at the crossroads of South Asia and Southeast Asia, is a significant factor in the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape of the Bay of Bengal. Relevant stakeholders are tempted to evaluate China-Bangladesh relations from the geopolitical lens. For example, India is very concerned about the strengthening of China-Bangladesh relations and views it as a dilution of India's regional influence. Similarly, countries like the United States and Japan have also expressed concerns about China’s influence. Notably, related competition is not only reflected in the project cooperation with Bangladesh but also the confrontations on the public opinion front. So China-Bangladesh cooperation is often affected by false information and the so-called “China threat” theory.

Abandon zero-sum game

Bangladesh is a small country in terms of geographical area, but it has a population of more than 170 million. Its stability and prosperity are of great significance to the Global South, even the whole world, especially in the current international environment full of uncertainty and turbulence. It may take some time for Bangladesh to fully recover from the crisis, which requires not only stimulating economic vitality and the solution of its social problems, but also a relatively favorable international environment, including more international aid, and beneficial trade relations. In this process, major countries such as China, India, and the United States are indispensable. 

Although geopolitical competition among major powers has become indisputable, it is necessary to call on all actors to abandon the zero-sum game mindset and seek a path of cooperative win-win outcomes.

(The author is an associate professor, Institute of South Asian Studies, Sichuan University, China. Views are personal. She can be reached at cathy98142003@126.com)