In reaffirming that there will be a successor to him after his death, the 14th Dalai Lama has opted to preserve the centuries-old tradition of finding his reincarnation rather than yield to the short-term strategic temptation of outwitting China by naming one in his lifetime.

He made the much-anticipated announcement about the institution of the Dalai Lama Wednesday, July 2, in McLeod Ganj, a hill town in northern India, ending years of uncertainty over the defining question of who after him. The language of the announcement, which comes four days before his 90th birthday on July 6, is constructed to emphatically say that Beijing will have no role at all to play in the matter of choosing his successor.

“I hereby reiterate that the Gaden Phodrang Trust has sole authority to recognize the future reincarnation; no one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter,” the Dalai Lama said in his statement. The Gaden Phodrang Trust was set up by the Dalai Lama whose primary responsibility will be to determine his reincarnation after his death.

Stage for conflict

Contrary to the longstanding popular expectation that the Dalai Lama could announce an interim successor until a reincarnation is determined after his death, he has chosen the option that sets the stage for a long-term conflict between Beijing and the institution of the Dalai Lama. It is clear now that the next Dalai Lama will be from outside China and Tibet.

This flies in the face of the Chinese government’s insistence the next Dalai Lama will be from China and will have to be approved by it.

It is entirely possible and even likely that at some point after the current Dalai Lama passes away, there will be two rival Dalai Lamas, one chosen in accordance with the centuries-old tradition of locating a reincarnation and the other hand-picked by the Communist establishment under their control.

Reports from Beijing suggest that the government is already in the process of creating a narrative where their own Dalai Lama will become more acceptable. As part of that effort officials are being sent to schools and offices to explain how the government will choose their Dalai Lama.

Removes uncertainty 

Over the last 14 years, there has been uncertainty over the question of whether the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue after his death. At a meeting of the heads of Tibetan spiritual traditions on 24 September 2011, he had said, “As far back as 1969, I made clear that concerned people should decide whether the Dalai Lama’s reincarnations should continue in the future.”

In an interview with this writer in 2010, the Dalai Lama had said it was for the Tibetans to determine whether the survival of the institution was useful for their own future. He had also said then, at age 75, that he would re-evaluate whether the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue when he would be about 90.

In his statement today he repeated that saying, “I also said, “When I am about ninety I will consult the high Lamas of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions, the Tibetan public, and other concerned people who follow Tibetan Buddhism, to re-evaluate whether or not the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue.”

What has persuaded the Dalai Lama to continue the institution beyond his lifetime is that over the last 14 years various Tibetan Buddhist stakeholders from around the world have appealed to him that it should continue.

“Although I have had no public discussions on this issue, over the last 14 years leaders of Tibet’s spiritual traditions, members of the Tibetan Parliament in Exile, participants in a Special General Body Meeting, members of the Central Tibetan Administration, NGOs, Buddhists from the Himalayan region, Mongolia, Buddhist republics of the Russian Federation and Buddhists in Asia including mainland China, have written to me with reasons, earnestly requesting that the institution of the Dalai Lama continue. In particular, I have received messages through various channels from Tibetans in Tibet making the same appeal. In accordance with all these requests, I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue,” he said.

“The process by which a future Dalai Lama is to be recognized has been clearly established in the 24 September 2011 statement which states that responsibility for doing so will rest exclusively with members of the Gaden Phodrang Trust, the Office of His Holiness the Dalai Lama. They should consult the various heads of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions and the reliable oath-bound Dharma Protectors who are linked inseparably to the lineage of the Dalai Lamas. They should accordingly carry out the procedures of search and recognition in accordance with past tradition,” the statement said.

Some scholars who preferred a sort of place-holder successor to be named in his lifetime have pointed out the dangers of the long gap between a new reincarnation after his death growing in stature and influence and Beijing hijacking the institution and propping up its own Dalai Lama.  

Preserve the sanctity

Perhaps the Dalai Lama’s thinking has been to preserve the sanctity of the mystical process of finding a reincarnation the way he was found when he was barely three years old. His announcement today reclaims that history and poses a great challenge to China when it embarks on its own process of declaring the next Dalai Lama. The challenge for Beijing will be to persuade the over six million Tibetan people, in Tibet and around the world, even while tightening its control over the future of Tibet and its ancient traditions.

(The writer is a Chicago-based journalist and author. His book Dalai Lama: Man, Monk, Mystic has been translated in over 20 languages. Views are personal. He can be reached at mcsix@outlook.com)