In the past few days, pictures of a new Chinese combat aircraft have emerged on social media, leading to speculation about whether it is a prototype of its 6th generation fighter aircraft or a stealth bomber. China’s decision to go ahead with the construction of the world’s largest dam, costing US $ 137 billion on the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet) just before it takes a sharp bend and enters India, has also grabbed media headlines. As the lower riparians, India and Bangladesh are justifiably concerned. In response, China has defended its construction plan with its foreign ministry spokesperson stating that it will not “negatively affect” the lower riparian states. At best, the Chinese response can be seen as a feeble and unconvincing attempt to assuage India and Bangladesh.

Pentagon report on China

However, there is a report pertaining to China that has gone largely unnoticed. Titled ‘Military & Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2024,’ it is an annual report submitted by the U.S. Department of Defence to the U.S. Congress as mandated by law. The report addresses the current and probable future course of military-technological development of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Here are some of the main highlights from the report.

Firstly, China’s long standing national strategy is to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049. In order to strengthen China’s national power and alter the international order in its favour, the strategy resolutely pursues political, social, economic, technological, and military development.

Second, wide-ranging military modernization continues to be pursued, and the Chinese are investing considerable resources in it. The Chinese Army emphasises combined arms and joint training and has demonstrated its long-range joint fire capabilities.

Third, numerically, the PLA Navy (PLAN) is the largest navy in the world, comprising over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants. The PLAN has transitioned from "offshore defence" to "open seas protection," reflecting its focus on developing capabilities to operate far from China's shores. PLAN's growing capability to undertake missions outside the First Island Chain (FIC) was exemplified in extended deployments of its Yushen-class amphibious assault ship and the aircraft carrier Shandong. China’s next generation of Fujian-class aircraft carriers will have enhanced endurance, faster launch capability of aircraft and highly potent strike potential.

Fourth, the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is modernizing and indigenizing its aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) rapidly. It is transitioning from a defensive to a more offensive force with a focus on long-range strike capabilities. Development of a new generation long-range bomber, the H-20, with an expected range of over 10,000 km is underway. The Y-20U flight refuelling aircraft meaningfully aids PLAAF's ability to conduct long-range offensive air operations. The PLAAF's ambition to become a "strategic" air force is crucial to China’s dreams of becoming a superpower.

Fifth, the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) is on a modernization spree of its missile forces, creating sophisticated conventional missile capabilities to enhance its “strategic deterrence.” The DF-17, a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) capable medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), is now operationally deployed. China may also be exploring the development of conventionally armed intercontinental-range missile systems that could enable it to strike the continental U.S., Hawaii, and Alaska.

Sixth, the PLA remains engrossed in capability creation to dissuade, deter, or, if necessary, defeat third-party interference in the Indo-Pacific region. Its ability to undertake military operations deeper into the Indo-Pacific region and beyond is being improved upon along with increased use of AI, quantum computing, big data, and other modern technologies.

Seventh, China is rapidly advancing its defence industrial capabilities, particularly in hypersonic missiles and shipbuilding. China is the world's fourth-largest arms supplier and is expanding its military presence globally through counter piracy missions, overseas base construction, and military cooperation. China's military attaché presence is expanding abroad (now in over 110 locations), reflecting its growing involvement in promoting China’s foreign policy objectives.

Eighth, Chinese activities in the Arctic region and Antarctica have significantly increased. Qingling Station, its fifth research station in Antarctica, is ideally located to gather signals intelligence over Australia and New Zealand enabling the PLA with good surveillance capabilities.

Momentous challenge to India’s security

China’s rapid military modernisation and expansion represent a momentous challenge to India’s security. The Quad countries (India, the U.S., Japan and Australia) have a high stake in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific. The PLA's increasing assertiveness in this region contradicts India’s vision and interests. Armed with advanced technologies, such as hypersonic weapons, long-range missiles, and an expanding Navy and Air Force, the military balance between India and China has significantly eroded to India’s disadvantage. The recent disengagement in Ladakh and calls for a full resumption of economic ties must not lull any Indian into thinking that the Chinese threat is over. 

For the first time in Indian history, a belligerent neighbour is rising rapidly to become a superpower. This itself should awaken India to the seriousness of the threat. Official statements notwithstanding, there is little tangible progress in building our capability and deterrence against the Chinese. The men and women in the Indian defence services are top-class and more than a match for those in the PLA. But they also need top-class military hardware and resources. Bereft of these, the warriors are placed in a precarious situation. The difference between the Chinese and Indian approaches is stark. While China is engaged in a frenzied military modernisation, the Indian defence establishment is absorbed in building statues, replacing iconic paintings and seeking mythological solutions to its current and future threats. Indian defence capability development has languished for too long. It needs to be in ‘mission mode’ in 2025. Happy New Year.

(The author, an Indian Air Force veteran, served in various command, instructional and staff appointments for over 32 years and writes on geopolitics, international relations and defence issues. Views expressed are personal. His X (formerly Twitter) handle is @aparagonpilot and email praveerp@rediffmail.com )