Energy has always been one of the strongest forces in shaping the geopolitical order in modern times. From the rise of crude-based economies in the twentieth century, to the emerging green-energy competition, control over resources and supply chains continues to determine the dominance of one nation over others. As the world marches towards renewable power, the long-standing arrangements forged by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), now share the new world order. Allowing China to dominate not just the supply chains but also the technologies.[1]

The central argument is simple. China’s dominance in renewable energy technologies is not accidental, it is the result of long-term industrial planning, early investments in manufacturing, and strategic access to critical minerals.[2] The lesson for India is equally clear, participation in the green transition requires not only expanding renewable capacity but also building domestic manufacturing and supply chains.

The urgent need for this transition has been amplified by the recent geopolitical uncertainties, especially due to the rising global tensions. The likes of the US-Israel-Iran conflict[3], Ukraine-Russia war[4] and the Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions[5] exposed the sad state of affairs of the global order. As countries recovered from the economic disruptions of the pandemic, volatile oil prices once again highlighted the risks of overdependence on fossil fuels.

Dramatic Change in Economics

At the same time, the economics of renewable energy have changed dramatically. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the global cost of solar photovoltaic electricity has fallen by more than 80 per cent between 2010 and 2020, making solar power one of the cheapest sources of electricity in many regions.[6] The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also noted that solar energy is now the fastest-growing source of electricity generation worldwide.[7]

China recognised the strategic significance of this transformation earlier than most countries. Beginning in the early 2000s, Beijing pursued a coordinated strategy to develop domestic renewable energy manufacturing.[8] Through industrial policy, state-supported financing, and the development of Special Economic Zones, China created an ecosystem capable of producing renewable energy equipment at an unprecedented scale.[9]

The result has been a remarkable shift in the global solar industry. Two decades ago, China accounted for only a small share of global solar production. In the existing world order, China and Chinese companies dominate nearly all levels of the solar manufacturing supply chain. According to estimates by the IEA, China currently controls roughly about 80% of global solar manufacturing capacity.[10]

China moves with a simple strategy. A strategy that extends way beyond manufacturing, directly into controlling everything, starting from the critical raw materials. These critical minerals, including cobalt, lithium and nickel, are essential for the manufacturing of batteries and energy storage technologies, which form the backbone of this renewable energy transition. Chinese companies have secured heavy stakes in mining in resource-rich regions, particularly in Africa and Latin America.[11]

China's Forward Thinking

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which holds some of the world’s largest cobalt reserves, provides a striking example.[12] Over the past two decades, Chinese firms have invested heavily in Congolese mining infrastructure, often through long-term development agreements. These investments have helped ensure a steady supply of raw materials for China’s battery and electric vehicle industries.

The outcome is a supply chain that is deeply integrated and geographically concentrated. China dominates the production of polysilicon, wafers and modules, the core components of solar panels, and has established a strong position in battery manufacturing as well. This level of industrial integration has allowed Chinese firms to influence global prices and supply chains.[13] In the Indian context, this transformation poses a challenge and an opportunity. India has set ambitious targets for renewable energy expansion, making it one of the fastest-growing solar markets in the world. International Solar Alliance (ISA), founded by India and France, reflect New Delhi’s effort to promote global cooperation in clean energy.

India, to date, remains heavily dependent on imports of the solar supply chain. In recent years, a significant share of India’s solar modules and related components have originated from China. These imports have backed the rapid expansion in the national solar capacity, but also highlight the underlying vulnerabilities created by dependence on external supply chains.[14]

The China tale offers important lessons. China’s rise in the renewable sector is not just fuelled by demand for clean energy, but by a broader strategy, linking energy policy with manufacturing, technology development and global trade.[15] India now seems to have begun taking steps in this direction. Policy measures such as the production-linked incentives scheme for solar manufacturing and efforts to expand domestic battery production are intended to strengthen the country’s clean energy ecosystem.[16] However, the focus should be on the stable and continuous investment supported by a technologically driven policy framework, for bringing in the required competitive edge.[17]   

Building Resilient Supply Chains

The broader implication is that the global transition to renewable energy is not merely an environmental challenge, it is also a geopolitical contest. The nations that control the technologies, minerals and supply chains of clean energy will shape the economic and strategic order of the twenty-first century.

India therefore, faces a strategic choice. It can remain primarily a consumer in the global renewable market, or it can position itself as a major producer and innovator in clean energy technologies.

The rise of the E-Dragon illustrates how industrial strategy and geopolitical foresight can reshape global power. As the world moves towards electrification and decarbonisation, the countries that build resilient supply chains today will determine the balance of power tomorrow.

(The author is a law graduate from NMIMS University, Mumbai, and currently a LAMP Fellow. Views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at rushank.kumar28@gmail.com. LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/rushank-kumar-aa7a65160. ORCID: 0000-0003-4847-8890)

[1] Chan, B. Y. (Ed.). (2025). How China is helping power the world’s green transition. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/why-china-matters-to-the-worlds-green-transition/

[2] Hu, X., Zhang, W., Zhang, S., Hao, Y., & Cong, J. (2025). The impacts of the global energy transition on China’s energy security in the long-term: Heterogeneous evidence from the supply and consumption sides. Renewable Energy, 255, 123784. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2025.123784

[3] Majkut, J., Book, K., Imsirovic, A., Emerson, S., Alkadiri, R., Palti-Guzman, L., & Cahill, B. (2026, March 6). What Does the Iran War Mean for Global Energy Markets?. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-does-iran-war-mean-global-energy-markets

[4] OECD (2022), “The supply of critical raw materials endangered by Russia’s war on Ukraine”, OECD Policy Responses on the Impacts of the War in Ukraine, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/e01ac7be-en.

[5] Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. (2020, October 8). Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict: energy implications of a potential escalation - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/azerbaijan-armenia-conflict-energy-implications-of-a-potential-escalation/

[6] IRENA (2021), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.

[7] IEA (2025), Renewables 2025, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025, Licence: CC BY 4.0

[8] Nahm, Jonas, 'China’s Specialization in Innovative Manufacturing', Collaborative Advantage: Forging Green Industries in the New Global Economy (New York, 2021; online edn, Oxford Academic, 19 Aug. 2021), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197555361.003.0005

[9] Supra

[10] IEA (2022), Solar PV Global Supply Chains, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/solar-pv-global-supply-chains, Licence: CC BY 4.0

[11] The SAIS Review of International Affairs, 2025, Unearthing Influence: China’s Global Strategy for Transition Minerals, https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/unearthing-influence-chinas-global-strategy-for-transition-minerals/

[12] Rubbers, B. (2019). Governing new mining projects in D. R. Congo. A view from the HR department of a Chinese company. The Extractive Industries and Society, 7(1), 191–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2019.12.006

[13] Chadly, A., Moawad, K., Salah, K., Omar, M., & Mayyas, A. (2024). State of global solar energy market: Overview, China’s role, Challenges, and Opportunities. Sustainable Horizons, 11, 100108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.horiz.2024.100108

[14] Garg, S., Jain, R., & Council on Energy, Environment and Water. (2022). Making India a leader in solar manufacturing: ways to achieve technology leadership and global competitiveness. Council on Energy, Environment and Water. https://www.ceew.in/gfc/solutions-factory/publications/CEEW-Making-India-a-Leader-in-Solar-Manufacturing.pdf

[15] Bian, L., Dikau, S., Miller, H., Pierfederici, R., Stern, N., Ward, B., Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, Energy Foundation China, Kumari, S., Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, Michelle Liem Foundation, Energy Foundation China, National Development and Reform Commission of China, & Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau. (2024). China’s role in accelerating the global energy transition through green supply chains and trade. In Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Chinas-role-in-accelerating-the-global-energy-transition-through-green-supply-chains-and-trade.pdf

[16] IEEFA & JMK Research & Analytics. (n.d.). Assessing the effectiveness of India’s solar production-linked incentive scheme. In Assessing the Effectiveness of India’s Solar Production-linked Incentive Scheme (pp. 2–6). https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/2025-12/Assessing%20the%20effectiveness%20of%20India%E2%80%99s%20solar%20production-linked%20incentive%20scheme%20formatted.pdf

[17] Kumbhar, S. R., Satpute, S. T., & Patil, Y. S. (2026). Harnessing green power: A comprehensive analysis of India’s renewable energy growth and future outlook. Next Energy, 10, 100493. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100493