The Galwan Valley clash between India and China, which started on June 15 June, 2020, was a result of building tensions between the border forces of the two nations since May 5 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that crosses through the valley in Ladakh. Such tensions have their roots, historically in the China-India War (1962), but more recently in both China and India’s expansion of military infrastructure along the LAC.

A globally-renowned strategic and international security expert, Ashley J. Tellis has asserted that the 2020 standoff is different from previous Chinese incursions in the LAC because unlike the discrete and localized clash of the past, the latest confrontations are taking place at multiple points in Ladakh, which suggest a high degree of Chinese premeditation and approval of its activities from the very top of the Chinese leadership. He also states that the roots of this crisis began when India abrogated the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, dividing the state into two union territories namely Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. This move, he said, amplified Chinese anxieties. China’s fierce opposition to this decision set the stage for the recent Chinese aggression on the Indian side of the LAC.

India’s construction of a feeder road that would connect with the road built last year from Darbuk-Shyok in Galwan Valley to Daulat Begh-Oldi was a trigger to Chinese officials who saw this as an aggressive tilt in India’s border strategy. This road strategically connects Leh to the Daulat Begh-Oldi military airbase allowing expedient mobility of troops and equipment to the LAC. Control over this road requires a control of the Galwan Valley ridgeline where the June 15 clashes took place. More importantly, control of the valley would provide India access to Aksai-Chin, which holds the Tibet-Xinjiang highway. West of Daulat Begh-Oldi is Gilgit-Baltistan, part of the POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) region and part of CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). China is apprehensive of India’s strategic leverage in the region to compromise the CPEC. This could have a disastrous impact on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s socio-economic and political stability. BRI also links to China’s own security concerns in Xinjiang and therefore any threat to the CPEC may be viewed as a threat to China’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. This road also raises China’s trepidations regarding Aksai-Chin which it occupied after the 1962 war.

Additionally, the remarks of Indian Home Minister Amit Shah in 2019, laying claim to Chinese-occupied Aksai Chin as Indian territory, further grabbed China’s attention. However, India’s increase in military reinforcements along the LAC has been fairly recent compared to China’s long-term escalation of military presence in the area without many reactions from the Indian side. Considering these, the timing of the Galwan Valley clash, therefore, warrants two questions – First, why has India amplified its efforts along the border only in recent times? And second, why has China, despite its military superiority and claims of Indian wrongdoing, partially withdrew its troops from the contested area?

Despite the coronavirus pandemic, China has forcefully pursued its territorial claims, especially in controlling the semi-autonomous Hong Kong. Currently, Hong Kong seems to be a national priority for Beijing and the economic backlash from the more powerful US a certainty. The US Senate on June 30 passed sanctions on China that threaten over $1.1 trillion in funding. India also took a decision to ban Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) under the automatic route from countries having land borders, mainly targeted at China. This further aggravated China. China is already facing international criticism for the spread of coronavirus, as it is seen as the nation from where the virus originated. China is also findings its global image receding with calls from various nations for sanctions against it.
 
These multifaceted threats to its supremacy may have led China to de-escalate in the Galwan Valley. It seems that the relations between the two Asian giants are bound to worsen in the future and South Asia is set to witness a more pronounced China-India rivalry.

(Dhritiman Banerjee is an undergraduate student of Political Science at the Department of International Relations, Jadavpur University, Kolkata. He can be contacted at dhritimanb2@gmail.com. Subarna Mustari is an undergraduate student of Political Science at Bethune College, Kolkata. She can be contacted at subarnamustari2297@gmail.com. The views expressed are personal)