The disinformation campaign in Manipur is continuing in full swing - propaganda against the Kuki-Zo and the Assam Rifles. A recent video claims showing proof of the presence of former US marine soldiers helping the Kuki-Zo, alleging they supply weapons and train them to create havoc in Manipur (https://x.com/Bimol27lyz/status/1815617836896682405).  But the video is actually from inside Myanmar where the Americans are helping anti-government forces in their fight against the military junta (https://www.facebook.com/reel/7149086961857971).

Lieutenant General PC Nair, Director General Assam Rifles, stated on July 27, 2024 that he has some 30-40 doctored videos in circulation that don’t even belong to northeast India and are spreading fake information about Manipur. He reiterated that the Assam Rifles functions in an absolutely impartial manner, dismissing the “agenda-driven narratives alleging bias in operations by Assam Rifles.

Earlier on July 24, the US State Department issued an advisory to US citizens not to go to Manipur. "Do not travel to Manipur... Ongoing ethnic-based civil conflict has resulted in reports of extensive violence and community displacement. Attacks against Indian government targets occur on a regular basis,” the advisory warned.

Concurrently, the European Manipuri Association (EMA) has given a memorandum to India’s High Commissioner to Britain, including documents "on the history of Kuki refugees of the 1960s", how this is linked with the unrest in Manipur, and suggestions to resolve the strife (https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/european-manipuri-association-shares-concerns-with-indian-high-commission-in-uk-submits-memorandum-6210324).

Fears of more violence

The rise of ethnic violence in Manipur has had a devastating impact on the state. Thousands of people have been killed and displaced from their homes. The violence has also crippled the economy and disrupted the development of the state.

Both the Kuki-Zo and Meitei groups are well armed but the state-supported radical Meitei group Arambai Tenggol which had only  7,000 cadres  till March 2023, saw a rise of almost 614 percent with its strength by January 2024 to 50,000 cadres spread across 59 units (https://theprint.in/india/recruitment-spikes-across-insurgent-outfits-in-manipur-more-than-when-insurgency-was-at-its-peak/1945527/). 

Faced with multiple allegations of violence, looting and arson attacks of churches in Manipur, Arambai Tenggol had ‘summoned’ MLAs (local lawmakers) for a meeting at the Kangla Fort and  allegedly compelled them to sign a draft proposal and take an oath to “protect the integrity of the state”.

In June 2024, two persons were caught in Assam with parts and batteries of drones they were trying to smuggle into Manipur – one allegedly had links with Kuki-Zo and the other with Meitei groups. It is not known whether some drones have already been smuggled into Manipur.

NSCN warning on Christian attacks

A recent development is a statement issued by NSCN (I-M) on July 22, 2024, said NSCN stands for “peaceful co-existence of all religious groups in Manipur…. we have seen the disturbing trend towards the Christians with harassment and physical assault by …. Arambai Tenggol …. persons behind Arambai Tenggol who hold or follow strong convictions or extreme principles to bring about fundamental socio-political reforms are …. more radical than anything else …. Arambai Tenggol bears strong animosity towards the Christians, both in spirit and actions” (https://www.ifp.co.in/manipur/nscn-i-m-cautions-arambai-tenggol).

During the G-7 summit in Italy in June 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also visited the Vatican to meet the Pope and gave him his characteristic hug. Subsequently, a delegation of bishops from Catholic churches in India met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on July 12, 2024,  complained about the “growing attacks” on Christians and urged him to “intervene earnestly” to restore peace in Manipur, However, Modi reportedly told them that the government is not responsible for anti-Christian pressures. (https://cruxnow.com/church-in-asia/2024/07/modi-tells-indian-bishops-government-not-responsible-for-anti-christian-pressures).

On July 25, 2024, Manipur Chief Minister Biren Singh, who has been accused of being party to the  ethnic cleansing, said he would be personally inviting the 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs to attend the upcoming assembly session (31 July to August 6). The 10 Kuki MLAs, including two ministers, did not attend the last two sessions due to the unabated ethnic violence.  Whether they will still attend remains a question mark.

Hopefully, the chief minister is sincere about bringing about peace in Manipur. Otherwise, the NSCN (i-M) joining the violence, coupled with the use of drones, could usher a new wave of violence in Manipur, all to the advantage of China.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)