The forthcoming Climate Change Conference COP 29 that is to take place from  November 9 to 22 at Baku, Azerbaijan  does not seem to have created any euphoria . On the other hand, there is considerable public scepticism about the outcome of the COP 29,  considering the outcomes  of the  previous  28 climate meets in different countries .

Has anything changed ?

 The ground reality is that  nothing much has changed over  the years and global warming continues to take place  causing severe and unexpected  weather changes and several other adverse impacts on climate. One cannot but get an impression that the climate meets have become  a sort of annual ritual, marked by loud claims, high levels of promise, particularly with focus  by  developing countries demanding fund support from developed countries  to reduce their carbon footprint  to protect global climate.

 It is well recognized that to protect the global climate emission of noxious gases  such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, sulphur dioxide, methane  gas have to be curbed and ultimately eliminated  to get net-zero emission .  The first requisite to achieve such drastic reduction in the emission of noxious gases is that the consumption of fossil  fuel such as coal, crude oil, etc have to be slashed and  ultimately stopped.  This is not happening.

Ambitious targets going for a toss

Several countries have  fixed targets for themselves to achieve zero  emission in a time bound schedule,  with India  promising that it would achieve zero emission by the year 2070, China  fixing the deadline as 2050  with other countries setting other deadlines. 

While such ambitious targets have been fixed to achieve zero emission, the ground reality is that these promises have not been followed by reduction in the production and use level of coal, crude oil, natural gas and reduction in the emission of methane gas from livestock.  Neither  the producers of fossil fuel are reducing production, nor the consumers of fossil fuel are reducing consumption over the years.  On the other hand, consumption of fossil fuels like coal have been steadily increasing  in spite of the promises made during climate meetings by different countries.  In such circumstances, one gets an impression that all tall promises to reduce emission have been made in vacuum.

Can use of fossil fuel be eliminated ?

It is now well recognized  that the substitutes  for  fossil fuel  for energy generation  are alternate eco-friendly energy sources such as renewable energy from solar, wind and hydro  , increasing production of green hydrogen , increasing the production of biofuel etc.  But, the development and production of the alternate eco-friendly energy source are slow and nowhere near the level  required for  matching the need.  It is mainly due to several issues with regard to alternate energy source such as high production cost of green hydrogen  produced from water source and limitations in wind , solar and hydro power due to seasonal factors and uneconomic capacity utilization as well as curtailment of methane gas emission not happening as livestock population  cannot be reduced.  While alternate energy sources are much needed and should be developed with utmost efforts, still alternate energy sources cannot significantly reduce the demand for fossil fuel ,particularly since the  energy demand   and consequent demand for fossil fuel  are steadily increasing.

Why not reduce energy demand ?

One solution on which the climate meets is not focusing is with regard to the possibility of steady reduction in the energy demand so that  the  demand for fossil fuel can be brought down.  Of course, developing countries would  particularly object to the reduction of energy demand  as it would adversely impact the industrial and economic growth of the countries.

Alternately, the demand  for energy can be brought down by optimization of energy utilization by technological advancements  and development of  non energy intensive products and services.  However.   this can be done only to a limited extent with no significant impact on the overall demand for fossil fuel.

Target population to  reduce energy demand

 Possibly, another way of reducing energy demand is to reduce the global population level. While a few countries such as South Korea, Japan, Russia are concerned about the population level  reducing  and are taking steps to increase the population by offering special incentives to people, there are countries like India and in Africa where populations are steadily increasing. The net result is that the global population is now steadily increasing.

Since more population means more energy demand and more fossil fuel consumption, the  COP 29 climate meeting should discuss this issue and fix the target for the level of global population to be reached and to be stabilised  at that level.

Impact of wars and conflicts

Even as all countries are concerned about climate issues  and almost all of them are participating in the  global climate meets, some of the participating countries  are indulging in bloody conflicts and wars such as the ongoing Russia Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war.  All such wars and terrorist  activities involve use of missiles, dropping of bombs, shootings, drone attacks and so on  which cause emission of huge quantities of toxic gases and severe atmospheric pollution. It appears that climate meets have not discussed these conflict issues at all.

 The question is whether the forthcoming COP 29 will be more forthright in discussing the issues in depth and calling a spade a spade, instead of confining itself to cosmetic discussions. Based on the proceedings of the past meets there is certainly justification to view the forthcoming COP 29 climate meet with a tinge of  despair.

(The author is the founder-director of Nandini Consultancy Centre, Chennai and a commentator on current affairs. Views are personal. He can be contacted at nsvenkatchennai@gmail.com)