Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Sri Lanka in the first half of next month to conduct crucial talks to iron out a few irritants in bilateral relations. He is scheduled to meet President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to finalize and speed up crucial joint projects in energy and port sectors.

Modi will pay a two-day visit and will have extensive discussions with Dissanayake, who made an official visit to New Delhi immediately after the elections in which his National People’s Power (NPP) scored a resounding victory  unseating the incumbent president and capturing a two-third majority in Parliament.

Indian investments, project delays

Foreign Ministry sources confirmed that proposed Indian investments in the energy, ports and other sectors will figure in the discussions between Modi and Dissanayake. The projects include joint venture for the use of send World War-vintage oil tanks in Trincomalee, wind and solar power projects in the north and east, speedy completion of West Terminal of Colombo Port and joint ventures in railway modernization and the digital public infrastructure platform for which already the two leaders agreed during the New Delhi talks.

Modi and Dissanayake will also take up the vexed issue of illegal fishing by Indian fishermen in the Palk Strait, issues pertaining to the cancellation of Adani wind power project in Mannar and delays in some other joint projects. Modi will also meet Prime Minister Harini Amaratunga and Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath. External Affairs Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar will accompany the Prime Minister.

Dissanayake had extended the invitation to Modi during his two-day visit to New Delhi in mid-December. He made India his first destination after being elected president in September last year. Jaishankar was the first foreign dignitary to visit Colombo soon after Dissanayake took charge in September 2024. Prime Minister Modi has visited Sri Lanka twice between 2015 and 2017. 

Colombo's commitment, Indian concerns

President Dissanayake, when he met Prime Minister Modi in Delhi, gave an assurance that Sri Lanka will not permit its territory to be used in any manner inimical to India’s security and regional interests. Although it is a reiteration of Sri Lanka’s long-standing position, Indian analysts found it to be highly significant in view of the perception that Dissanayake’s radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) was a left-leaning pro-China party. However, the JVP-led NPP alliance is considered to be a moderate party that is seeking to puruse a neutral, nonaligned foreign policy.

During Dissanayake’s visit, the two nations signed a host of Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), aimed at improving Sri Lanka’s economic and energy security, both of which suffered very badly during the multiple crises of 2022. Indian analysts believe that India should feel safe and secure as a nation to follow up on these projects which were initiated as a part of New Delhi’s  ‘Neighbourhood First’ and SAGAR policies.

One of the concerns of India has been the expanding Chinese presence in Sri Lanka. The China-funded mega projects like Hambantota Port and Colombo Port City have caused some discord in the India-Sri Lanka relations. Growing Chinese presence in South Asian nations - Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives and Sri Lanka - has been a cause of major security concern for New Delhi.

Distancing from Tamil issue?

Since ancient times the India-Sri Lanka relationship has traditionally been marked by bonhomie and a legacy of cultural, religious and linguistic engagement. Trade and investment have grown and there is cooperation in the fields of defence, development, education and culture.

Dissanayake’s visit to Delhi had helped to put doubts to rest in Indian minds about how to deal with a completely new entity that had assumed power in Sri Lanka. Indian analysts hailed it as an example of how India can keep bilateral ties with a neighbouring country stable even if there was a regime change in that country. 

Sri Lankan Tamil political party leaders have also sought a meeting with Modi to brief him on the pending issues of devolution and development in the north and east. The Indian position on these issues has somewhat changed after the recent elections in which Tamil people have voted for the first time for Dissanayake and his NPP pushing the Tamil nationalist parties to second place in the north and east. New Delhi now feels that the Tamil leadership should sort out issues with Dissanayake by adopting a consensual approach.

(The author, a former Sri Lankan diplomat, is a political and strategic affairs commentator. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at sugeeswara@gmail.com)