Since mid-2025, Israel’s international standing has undergone significant strain. Several of its closest allies have begun to reconsider their relationships reminiscent of the diplomatic shifts witnessed during the apartheid era in South Africa. Countries such as the Netherlands have imposed restrictions on arms exports; Germany, long Israel’s most steadfast European ally, is tightening controls on weapons components; and France, Canada, and the UK are preparing to recognize the State of Palestine. This emerging realignment suggests that a coordinated sanctions regime against Israel—akin to the one that helped isolate apartheid South Africa—could materialize within a few years, potentially as early as 2029 or 2030.

India’s relationship with Israel, which has expanded significantly since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, presents a complex strategic dilemma. Marketed domestically as an expression of “strategic autonomy,” this relationship encompasses defence, agriculture, technology, infrastructure, and investment. Indian imports of arms and ammunition from Israel surged from USD 5.6 million in 2015 to approximately USD 128 million in 2024, a more than 20-fold increase over nine years. Meanwhile, bilateral merchandise trade grew from around USD 4.5 billion in 2014 to peak at USD 10.8 billion by fiscal year 2022–23.

Yet this intensifying partnership has coincided with troubling trends both within India and globally. Domestically, democratic norms have faced challenges, while internationally India has aligned itself more closely with nationalist and authoritarian regimes—including Russia and Israel—at a time when many democracies are distancing themselves from such governments. 

Economic Entanglement

India’s current approach echoes its earlier stance on Russia post-Ukraine invasion, where a reluctance to recalibrate ties has led to diplomatic chill and punitive economic measures, such as the U.S. imposing tariffs on Indian exports. Continuing to deepen ties with Israel amid mounting allegations of serious human rights violations may expose India to similar risks.

Reports from human rights organizations like Amnesty International, B’Tselem, Physicians for Human Rights–Israel, as well as assessments from UN special rapporteurs and genocide scholars, have reframed the discourse around Israel’s conduct in Gaza—from concerns over human rights abuses to formal allegations of crimes against humanity and genocide. These developments are reshaping diplomatic calculations in capitals that previously shielded Israel from criticism. If history serves as a guide, economic sanctions and trade restrictions could follow swiftly, placing India—Israel’s largest arms customer—in a precarious position.

India’s economic entanglement with Israel is considerable. Excluding defence, bilateral trade in 2024 was valued at roughly USD 6.5 billion. Imports included USD 1.33 billion worth of goods from Israel, such as USD 432 million in electronics and USD 110 million in fertilisers. Over the last decade, India imported approximately USD 2.9 billion in Israeli military hardware—drones, radars, and precision munitions—accounting for about 34 percent of India’s total arms imports. More than 300 Israeli firms operate in India, with cumulative foreign direct investment reaching USD 327 million by the end of 2024.

This economic integration extends beyond trade. The Indo-Israeli Agriculture Project supports over 1.2 million Indian farmers through 30 Centres of Excellence, while Israeli technology in desalination and water recycling is increasingly embedded in several Indian states. Strategic infrastructure links include Adani’s USD 1.18 billion acquisition of Haifa Port and plans for an USD 8–10 billion Tower Semiconductor plant in Maharashtra, demonstrating how deeply India’s industrial and technological ambitions are intertwined with Israel’s economic fortunes.

Absence of Public Outrage

Beyond economics, India’s international reputation is also at stake. While global protests against the conflict have filled streets from London to Jakarta, India has remained notably silent on the Gaza crisis. This absence of public outrage, coupled with expanding trade and military ties, has fed perceptions in Western and Global South capitals that India is increasingly isolated as an outlier. Seen as prioritizing strategic and commercial interests over human rights concerns, India risks eroding trust and goodwill with partners and multilateral institutions alike.

The potential fallout from Israel’s growing diplomatic isolation could be severe for India. If sanctions are imposed, they are unlikely to isolate only Israel; India’s ties to Israel may be viewed as implicit political endorsement of a government facing international censure. Possible consequences include secondary sanctions, suspension of preferential trade agreements with the EU, UK, and Canada, withdrawal of foreign investment, and loss of market access in key regions of Asia and Africa. Sectors such as Indian agricultural exports, manufacturing supply chains, and semiconductor ambitions could face significant disruption.

Phased Disengagement

Given these risks, India must consider a phased disengagement from its dependence on Israeli goods and technology—aiming for complete strategic and economic independence by 2030. A possible roadmap might include:

2025–26: Freeze new Israeli defence contracts and joint ventures; accelerate domestic development and diversify suppliers in East Asia, Scandinavia, and Latin America.

2026–27: Transition agricultural and water technology imports away from Israeli sources; begin winding down joint research and development projects in sensitive areas.

2027–28: Replace Israeli-origin electronics in defence and civilian sectors; relocate semiconductor partnerships to alternative international consortia.

2028–29: Restructure or divest Israeli foreign direct investment in strategic infrastructure; phase out bilateral agriculture projects and shift port management and surveillance partnerships.

By 2030: Achieve full independence from Israeli-origin imports with robust indigenous capabilities and diversified civilian trade relationships insulated from sanctions risk.

Clinging to the narrative of “strategic autonomy” while doubling down on a partner facing escalating global condemnation will not safeguard India’s sovereignty. Instead, it risks compromising India’s diplomatic standing and economic resilience. The trajectory toward Israel’s international isolation is unfolding—and India must choose whether to adjust course before the full costs of inaction are realized.

(The author is an economist and research partner at South Asia Institute of Research and Development, Kathmandu, Nepal. Views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at sahasranshu.dash@gmail.com )