Former Afghanistan Deputy Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin recently made a significant statement that with US and NATO troops all set to withdraw from Afghanistan - ending their almost 20-year presence - the region now has an opportunity to end the war through a political settlement. It is rooted in the fact that the US presence, despite providing relative stability, has always been viewed with deep mistrust by two of Afghanistan’s important neighbors, Pakistan and Iran.

"Some falsely assume that there is a consensus in the region behind the peace in Afghanistan... the picture underneath is that the consensus is fractured. This is because, despite various areas of common interests, the region fundamentally disagrees on how to basically seek the protection of those interests," said Ludin, speaking at a webinar organized by the India International Centre in New Delhi association with the Heart of Asia Society.

The discussion, moderated by Lakhdar Brahimi, an Algerian diplomat and former UN special envoy to Afghanistan, was based on a recently edited book “Historical Letters of President Najibullah and Dr. M. Hassan Kakar, A Collection of Essays.”

US withdrawal and challenges

On 29 February 2020, the United States, with Donald Trump as president, and the Taliban signed the Doha agreement under which Washington agreed to withdraw all foreign forces by 1 May, 2021 in exchange for counter-terrorism assurance and a negotiated settlement of the conflict by the Taliban. 

Meanwhile, the hardline Sunni Islamist group adopted a two-pronged strategy: first, it kept attacking Afghan security forces and continued to make military advances on the battlefield; second, it continued intra-Afghan talks to seek the US withdrawal under the Doha agreement.

As the talks failed to make headway, and a new administration took charge in the US, new President Joe Biden announced an “unconditional” withdrawal of all foreign troops – but by 11 September – around four and half months later than the previous deadline.

Though the Taliban had welcomed the US decision to withdraw, it found fault with Washington extending the troops’ presence beyond 1 May. The Taliban claimed the US can’t be trusted as it had violated the Doha agreement and refused to participate in the Afghan peace conference slated to be held in the Turkish capital Istanbul.

The Taliban’s apparent reluctance for a power-sharing deal, and the lack of international consensus, compounded by the withdrawal of foreign troops, is a serious setback for peace efforts. “Peace has never been a priority in Afghanistan, nor for the international community,” Jawan Sher Rashik, the book editor, said during the discussion.

No return to Islamic Emirate

Today, despite the broad ethnic divisions that exist in Afghanistan, the country is no longer the one that the Taliban had once ruled over as the Islamic Emirate in the 90s.

“It is a connected society. It is not a fragmented or disconnected society that was the case in the 90s,” said Barnett Rubin, a former American State Department official, who initiated the first official secret channel with the insurgent group in 2009. He further added, “It is a phenomenon which, I think, will have a fundamental transformative effect on the nature of the upcoming political transition.”

Even in the case of a probable future civil war scenario, an anti-Taliban front won’t be like the one that existed in the 90s, divided purely on ethnic lines.

The region, overall, has gone through a major strategic realignment with the increasing influence of China, and its ties with Pakistan. Also, unlike the 90s,  there exists multi-dimensional international cooperation on the issue of Afghanistan today.

India, another important regional player, is currently in a “wait and watch” mode.“While our (India’s) aid mission continues both political and security-wise assistance, India’s contribution (to the peace process) has reduced significantly,” said Radha Kumar, a former director-general of the Delhi Policy Group.

Over the years, Iran, too, has developed a transactional relationship with the Taliban to undermine the US presence in the region.

Challenges and risks

The most significant challenge today is how to achieve a transition in Afghanistan while retaining the state structure. Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s refusal to the idea of an interim government is rooted in history.

The transfer of power without a peace agreement risks the collapse of the Afghan state, a mistake Najibullah committed and paid with a heavy price. However, many others, including international players and Afghan political elites, today feel the urgency of setting up a transitional government.

Pakistan is yet to exercise its full influence on the Taliban to force it to go for a political solution. Afrasiab Khattak, a former senator in Pakistan and human rights activist, said the Taliban still maintains its ties with al-Qaeda and other regional terrorist groups and the group’s sanctuaries in Pakistan remain intact. And, this is something, he said, that disincentivizes the Taliban for a power-sharing deal.

Also, if things go south, Pakistan would not be able to avoid spillover effects. Already, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is making a comeback on its soil.

Stakeholders in Afghanistan

China and the US both have a significant role to play in changing Pakistan’s behavior vis-à-vis the Taliban. Despite being "iron brothers", Pakistan’s relations with China can’t compensate for the western aid and bailout packages from global lenders.

Despite ending its military involvement in Afghanistan, the West, especially the US, remains the most consequential player in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s quest for legitimacy, delisting of sanctions and future aid would it make harder for the group to defy international pressure, thinks Ludin.

The Taliban must realize that the military takeover that they wish to achieve won’t be easy. It will plunge the country into a long civil war. No government in Kabul can be stable without a political settlement.

Indian concerns

Ghani’s obsession with forcing elections on the Taliban won’t make things easier either. Especially, when he himself had to negotiate a power-sharing deal with his rival each time he won. He has no option but to offer realistic concessions to the Taliban. 

Even then, for any peace deal to happen with the Taliban, the political unity of the Afghan Republic is a must. Unfortunately, Ghani has a record of alienating rival leaders of the country.

Pakistan and India need to decouple their rivalry over Afghanistan. The future Afghan government must ensure one of the most pressing Indian concerns: Afghan territory must not be used to sheltering anti-Indian militant groups that was the case in the late 90s. Failing to do so would only mean the continuation of proxy conflict, which would further jeopardize any chance of stability and peace.

(The writer is a writer-researcher with SPS. The views are personal.  He can be contacted at snbhatnagar296@gmail.com)