Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent visit to Beijing coinciding with the opening of the Winter Olympics was primarily to obtain another $3 billion loan for impoverished Pakistan and seek investments to kick off Phase 2 of the CPEC. It did not matter if Imran’s large delegation that included his Foreign Minister, Finance Minister, Information Minister, National Security Adviser and Commerce Advisor was received by a junior official of the Chinese government. Imran Khan’s meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and senior leaders of state-owned and private companies was only possible virtually.   

After all the Arabs have been calling Pakistanis “slaves” for decades and when official visits are with a begging bowl, the welcome is naturally matched accordingly.  China has already provided $15 billion to Pakistan as commercial loans and foreign exchange support initiatives, including $4 billion stored in China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) deposits. 

Chinese aid 

Interestingly, AidData, the US-based international development research lab, reported last year that the majority of the Chinese development financing under the CPEC consists of loans that are at or near commercial rates as opposed to grants; half of all Chinese development finance is in the form of 'export buyer's credit - money lent by Chinese institutions to Pakistan in order to facilitate the purchase of equipment and goods to be bought by Chinese implementation partners. That is why these do not figure in the government’s official records. 

During Imran Khan’s visit, China and Pakistan inked a deal on CPEC Phase 2 and multiple agreements/MoUs for cooperation in areas of economic and technical, industry, investment, infrastructure, space, digitalization and the like. Pakistan appears committed to advancing the 2005 prophecy of veteran Pakistani officer Agha H Amin that by 2030 or so Pakistan will be a semi-autonomous Chinese province and Balochistan would be a completely Chinese-run show. 

Never to miss an opportunity, China sold 50 x JF-17 jet fighters to Imran Khan, which is good for export promotion. Imran Khan’s government is telling the public at home that these will counter the Russian S-400 acquired by India, whereas the 3.5 generation JF-17 stands no chance when the S-400 can even detect the US F-35 stealth fighter and F-15E Strike Eagle at very long distances. Besides, Pakistan will not be able to fly its AWACS for fear of getting shot down by the S-400. 

Trilateral dialogue 

The joint China-Pakistan press release stated they are ready to discuss with Afghanistan by holding the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan Trilateral Foreign Ministers Dialogue and also discuss with Afghanistan the extension of CPEC to Afghanistan. 

It may be recalled that during the summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on February 4, both sides sought to advance linking the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to intensify practical cooperation between the EAEU and China in various areas and promoting greater interconnectedness between the Asia Pacific and Eurasian regions; building the Greater Eurasian Partnership in parallel and in coordination with the BRI. 

The Pakistani security forces are suffering major casualties. The Baloch Liberation Army recently destroyed two Frontier Corps headquarters at Panjgur and Noshki, killing over 100 (190 by some sources) including a Major General and shot down an attack helicopter. Concurrently, the Afghanistan-based Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues to attack Pakistan. Large areas of North Waziristan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) are under TTP control. Tensions between Taliban and Pakistan are high with Pakistan fencing the Durand Line which no Afghan government has ever recognized. 

Indian wheat 

The Taliban government would not have appreciated spokes being put by the Imran Khan government for the 50,000 tons of wheat transiting Pakistani territory which India announced as humanitarian aid to Afghanistan in October 2021. Pakistan now appears amenable to remove the spokes in the face of global criticism of its conduct despite the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. 

Imran Khan’s proposed visit to Russia later this month (no dates announced) would be to facilitate the extension of the BRI (linked with CPEC) through Afghanistan and beyond to Eurasia; obtain weapons (S-400?) and energy supplies from Russia; pledge its territory will not be used for exporting terrorism; and soothe the Taliban’s ruffled feathers with promises of economic development that the BRI will bring – same as in Pakistan with China’s colonization? 

Russia is well aware of how Pakistan has been facilitating the movement of ISIS cadres from Iraq-Syria into northern Afghanistan at the behest of the US, especially along the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border. Russia will sell weapons to Pakistan but it certainly cannot believe what the Pakistan government says. At the same time, Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, visited Pakistan in April 2021, the first Russian Foreign Minister to visit Pakistan since 2002.  Lavrov, who had clubbed his visit to India and Pakistan, said in Islamabad: “We stand ready to strengthen the anti-terrorist potential of Pakistan, including by supplying it with special military equipment. We also agreed that we need to conduct more exercises and drills in the mountains along with maritime exercises as well in the Arabian Sea soon.” 

Pakistan will use the proposed China-Pakistan-Taliban Trilateral Dialogue to further its national interests. But this will not stop the TTP from attacking the Pakistani establishment, having pledged that they will not rest till the rule of Sharia is imposed in Pakistan. To the woes of Imran Khan’s government, the Afghan Taliban also wants the same. In addition, there is much anger among both Taliban against Pakistan whitewashing Chinese genocide of the Uyghur and Muslims in Xinjiang. 

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal.)