The spectacle of the radical Arambai Tenggol beating up lawmakers and forcibly administering oath to 37 legislators and two MPs at Kangla Fort in Imphal on January 24 and the kingpin Korounganba Khuman strutting around like a warlord amid armed radicals riding gypsies flying Kangleipak flags is in the public domain, even as the mainstream media remained mum.  

The absence of Manipur Chief Minister Biren Singh and his security forces during this sordid drama was conspicuous, indicating it had the concurrence of the state administration. There is no statement on the Arambai Tenggol by the Centre either though Biren Singh met the Union Home Minister Amit Shah later on February 3, 2024, at New Delhi.

The only announcement made by the Centre is to fence the India-Myanmar border and scrap the free movement regime (FMR) between the two nations. With shared cross-border ethnicity astride the Myanmar border with Nagaland and Mizoram, the fence will be like another Durand Line on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border which is unacceptable to Pashtuns on either side.  

Biren Singh has announced that those who came to Manipur after 1961 will be deported but without elaborating deportation where – to other states in India or to Myanmar. The irony is we have not been able to deport over 4,000 Rohingya refugees already in India, either to Bangladesh or Myanmar.

Increase in ethnic strife

As expected, the fallout of the free run given to Arambai Tenggol (which has grown to an incredible 50,000 strong from a mere 7,000 in March 2023) has increased the bloody ethnic strife. Killings continued through January and are multiplying.

Firing of bursts intermittently was reported around the buffer zone Kangpokpi-Imphal East since February 11 with two bodies discovered over the weekend. On the morning of February 13, fresh firing broke out in parts along Khamenlok and Sulkul between Meitei and Kuki groups, prompting soldiers from the Assam Rifles and the Army to move towards the area.

There were reports of at least two killed and three injured and firing continuing in different parts of the Saikul sub-division. Manipur police confirmed a junior commissioned officer of the Indian Army received a gunshot wound.

The Committee on Tribal Unity (COTU), Kangapopki’s civil society group, said the Meitei militants entered the Satang area by crossing the buffer zone in the wee hours of February 13 and commenced attacking which lasted till dusk.

According to the media, two armouries of the Manipur police were targeted by mobs in the Imphal East district of Manipur on the night of February 13, prompting security forces to open fire, killing one mobster. Six mobsters were taken into custody. The report further states police have recovered, four INSAS Rifles, one AK-47, two magazines of SLR and 16 small boxes of 9mm ammunition, which were suspected to have been looted from 5 India Reserve Battalion (IRB) armoury. However, according to sources on the ground, no one was killed in police firing and more than 300 weapons and thousands of rounds of ammunition were taken from the 5 IRB armoury to boost the firepower of the Arambai Tenggol and other radical Meitei elements.   

It may be recalled that in May 2023, some 4,000 weapons and over 10,000 rounds of ammunition were reportedly “looted” from police and IRB armouries in Imphal, which according to ground sources were “distributed” among the Meitei radicals.   

In the last nine months, mobs have looted a total of 5,682 weapons and 6,50,000 rounds of ammunition, of which Manipur police have recovered less than 1800 weapons and 23,000 ammunition rounds, according to Manipur state police data (https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/mob-targets-armouries-in-strife-torn-manipur-1-shot-dead-by-forces-101707938587112.html),  

Where is Manipur headed?

With the increased sway of Arambai Tenggol, the calls to remove the Assam Rifles from Manipur have also become shriller. Last year, the propaganda was against the Army, not Assam Rifles, because the Assam Rifles had saved many Meitei lives during the ethnic violence in May-June 2023.

The Army is in aid of civil authority in Manipur and ineffective in Imphal Valley where the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) has been conveniently removed, so they cannot recover the looted arms as the Tribal have been demanding. But the Assam Rifles manning the buffer zones being neutral are not to the liking of the Meitei radicals; who are accusing them of being biased towards the Kukis.   

The most recent is the mob attack on the offices of the SP and Deputy Commissioner of Churachandpur district in Manipur because Churachandpur SP Shivanand Surve had suspended a head constable whose video with “armed miscreants and village volunteers” was viral on social media.

The sharp contrast in imposing Section 144 (restriction of public assembly) in Delhi despite excessive barricading against protesting farmers and smoke bombing farmers using drones vis-à-vis letting armed mobs run riot in Manipur is ironic – where are we headed? 

Much more violence could be expected in Manipur, with Meitei radicals waging all-out war against the Kuki-Zo, with Nagas fearing they would be the next target since the Arambai Tenggol alone outnumbers the tribals of Manipur hugely.  

But is this what the Centre and State want? Theories abound on social media from the need to oust/kill all tribal Christians, making 6,000 hectares of land available for palm plantation to the corporations that paid advance when the deal was inked, to making Manipur a purely Hindu state. Some posts relate such decisions to the theory expounded by the National Security Adviser: take a decision, right or wrong, and then create the necessary narrative. (https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0bdF3uEeYhna588upZwHVT52vBPL7pQEjpgR4BbGymD5Xts3QJ7qUaTJYr21sJqYkl&id=100013606718478&sfnsn=wiwspwa&mibextid=9z1EC3). This is akin to pre-supposing or “fixing” a military appreciation.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)