The heart-wrenching scenes from India, ravaged by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, stunned the world. The death processions across the cities, rows of corpses, incessant fires of funeral pyres, the longing for survival are all fresh in people's minds across the world, the South Asian region in particular.

India’s woes increased fears among the public health experts and people of Bangladesh that such a situation could develop in their country as well. Bangladesh is surrounded on three sides by India, the two countries sharing a 4096-kmr long international border – the fifth-longest border in the world. There are regular social and business interactions between the two nations.

Now, the death count and infection rates are on the rise in Bangladesh. The Delta variant of Covid 19 -– that first originated in India - is being increasingly detected. The capital city of Dhaka and port city of Chittagong were the biggest hotspots in Bangladesh from the very beginning of the Covid 19 pandemic. The reasons were the high population density and the mixing of the people. But with the third wave of Covid 19 looming, the virus has proliferated in more than half of the district towns, including the border areas outside Dhaka.

Until the second wave of coronavirus in Bangladesh, the variants found had originated in the UK, Brazil, Nigeria and South African, and these variants did not cause much damage. But experts estimate that the pandemic can be as vicious as it was in India if there is a prevalence of the Delta variant, which is 50 to 60 times more contagious than the other variants. It is to prevent any such tragedy that Bangladesh had closed its border with India some time back.

Need for mass vaccination

Given the rising reality of the infection, the mass vaccination activities have been stopped for about a month and a half. Besides, Bangladesh is struggling to ensure the second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine for about one and a half million people.

Bangladesh scientists have detected four variants of coronavirus by sequencing the genomes of 50 samples from different infected areas. About 80 percent are the Delta variant. According to the latest data from the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), the remaining 16 percent are beta or of South African origin, and only two percent – one sample - is an unknown variant. On May 16, IEDCR had confirmed the detection of the Delta variant in Bangladesh.

Experts fear there has been a community transmission of the Delta variant of coronavirus, but the exact number is unknown due to insufficient genome sequencing.

At this stage of the infection, public health experts say, the situation would have been better if the vaccine had been given at a mass rate, alongside maintaining effective Covid restrictions and hygiene. It is officially known that Bangladesh is waiting to buy vaccines from China and Russia and get supplies from CoVAX.  The health department is yet to confirm when the mass vaccination program can be resumed.

Experts say at least 60-70 percent of people need to be vaccinated for herd immunity. So far it has been universally proven, there is no alternative to vaccination to prevent Covid. The UK is on the verge of achieving the goal of herd immunity and returning to normal life by vaccinating about 60-70 percent of its adults.

Vaccine procurement  

According to sources, public health experts in Bangladesh are saying, "If we assume that we will vaccinate 70 percent of the people, then now Bangladesh needs to procure 250 million doses of vaccine soon. Getting 250 million doses is not easy. Again, if a booster dose is required, then another 120 million doses will be required. That means we have to keep a stock of 400 million dose vaccines or have the potential. This is possible only if we can create our own vaccine."

Bangladesh's efforts to get vaccines from China and Russia became visible only after the vaccine supply from India stopped. Bangladesh also received half a million doses of vaccines from China as a gift. It is learned that in the second phase, about 0.6 million vaccines will be gifted by China.

However, Bangladesh first decided to buy 15 million doses of vaccine from China's Sinopharm, but somehow the price became public, riling the Chinese authorities, who had insisted on confidentiality. As a result, the supply is getting delayed, and Bangladesh may have to buy the vaccines at a higher rate in the future.

In this situation,  health authorities are unsure when Bangladesh can start mass vaccination again. Meanwhile, with 1.5 million people awaiting the second dose of the Oxford vaccine, there are plans to produce vaccines in Bangladesh. Public health experts believe that Bangladesh, despite having a good record of conducting vaccination programs, has failed in the case of the Covid jabs because of its earlier reliance on a single vaccine.

The country is also trying to procure vaccines under the World Health Organization's CoVAX facility. Experts say it is now important to start collecting and producing vaccines from more than one country. 

Looming challenge

India produces vaccines on its own and is also procuring vaccines from other countries. Pakistan is doing the same. So Bangladesh also has to walk in that direction. The government is considering whether it is possible to make any vaccine in Bangladesh through technology transfer.

The infection rate in some border districts is more than 50 percent, prompting the authorities to go for a complete lockdown. But it is a big challenge to ensure people obey the lockdown restrictions as a lot of livelihoods have been affected by the shutdown since early last year.

Also, there have been reports of deaths due to the Black Fungus disease in coronavirus patients. One report found evidence of the presence of Black Fungus in onions. Bangladesh regularly imports onions and many other commodities from India. If the reports are true, then it will be more headache for Bangladesh.

(The writer is an activist and award-winning international youth leader in Bangladesh. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at  md.rakibalhasan.bd@gmail.com/ he tweets @ rakibalhasan_bd)