Bangladesh has been through a challenging period due to the ongoing quota movement. Fear and anxiety are pervasive across the country. The violent nature of the quota movement witnessed by the people of Bangladesh is unprecedented in recent history. Young, impressionable students have become victims of this violence, and national assets worth billions of taka have been destroyed. Now various individuals are offering differing interpretations of this movement.

However, the matter worth pondering is whether an attempt has been made to orchestrate an event in Bangladesh similar to the Arab Spring. This thought is not entirely baseless. Last December, Russia issued a cautionary message regarding this matter. Their warning was along the lines that an Arab Spring-like attempt could be made in Bangladesh after the election, and their suspicion was directed towards the Western world. Although it is not clear who wanted to instigate this, the events that have transpired are indeed suspicious and raise questions. 

While it began as a quota movement, at one point, the movement was hijacked. Even those who initiated the movement eventually realized that they no longer had control over it. They became somewhat bewildered by the course of the movement. A spree of destruction ensued.

The first question that arises is why this happened. Who is responsible for this destruction? To put it simply, neither the government nor the protesters can avoid responsibility. Both parties failed to realize the importance of timely decision-making. 

Lack of dialogue escalated crisis

Broadly speaking, the entire movement can be divided into two parts. The first part is before the onset of destruction, i.e., when the movement was peaceful, and the other part is after the destruction began, i.e., when the rampage started.

The movement began after the High Court's verdict nullified the circular in 2018. That movement was relatively peaceful. Students continued to protest peacefully. Demands for quota reform were raised. At that time, irresponsible statements from some government officials provoked the movement. Their statements exhibited a negative attitude towards the protesters. The most surprising thing is that the country was in turmoil over this quota issue in 2018. At that time, the country was in upheaval, and the government had to struggle to control that movement. Regrettably, the government does not seem to have learned from that experience. If they had learned, they wouldn't have made the same mistake of the same magnitude again. 

If the dialogue that was held with the protesters towards the end had been done within the first couple of days, the matter wouldn't have escalated so far. Due to the lack of dialogue, misunderstandings between the two parties became acute. As a result, the movement gained momentum. It is very natural that in any momentum-driven movement, the opposition will seek opportunities to use the movement for their own purposes. And that's exactly what happened. Opportunists seized the chance and hijacked the quota reform movement, steering it towards a movement to overthrow the government. In the process, many lives were lost.

Now, let's move to the second part where the students showed quite inconsiderate behavior. It was a grave mistake to chant slogans with the term "razakar" (a term used for a Pakistani collaborator) in connection with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's press conference. It is natural to expect an adverse reaction when an abrupt response is given to a statement made by the highest authority of the executive branch. Instead, if any statement causes confusion or offense, it would be more appropriate to take time, understand the situation, and prepare a thoughtful response. They talk about a movement against discrimination in independent Bangladesh, but slogans containing "Razakar" are in no way acceptable in that same independent Bangladesh. The most surprising thing is that they didn't provide any acceptable explanation for this slogan. Emotion can be used to intensify a movement, but wisdom is needed to lead it. That wisdom was always absent among the protesters. 

Secondly, when the violence started in the name of the movement and anarchy spread across the country, the protest leaders maintained a mysterious silence. However, at that time, i.e., two days before the curfew was imposed, when attacks were being carried out on national installations including the Metro Rail, Setu Bhaban, and Bangladesh Television, these protest leaders should have taken a strong stance against these attackers. They failed to do so. Miscreants hijacked the movement in a very short time, transforming their non-violent movement into a violent one. As a result, billions of taka worth of national assets were destroyed. There was significant loss of life and property. They should have understood that the responsibility for violence in a program falls on those who organize it. They completely failed to demonstrate the wisdom needed to keep the movement under their control and lead it. As a result, miscreants used their movement to fulfill their sinister plans. To handle this, the government had to take tough decisions like imposing a curfew.

Ruling party must learn its lessons

The most tragic aspect of this movement is that both parties wanted reform of the quota system. Misunderstandings reached an extreme level simply due to the lack of dialogue or exchange of views between the two parties. The whole country had to pay the price for this. However, relief came witjh the verdict of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh.

 The course of events in this movement leaves messages for both parties. The message for the protesters is that along with emotion, wisdom and prudence are needed to lead a movement. Otherwise, the movement gets hijacked, and goes in the wrong direction, and one has to bear the burden of destruction. When you seek to overthrow the government through violence before its term expires, it is natural that force will be used in response to counter such violence. In South Asian politics, there is no precedent of a government welcoming with garlands those who engage in violence to bring about its downfall. Therefore, if one is uncertain about what to demand at various stages of a movement or how to conduct it, it is advisable to keep the movement confined to specific demands. The protesters failed to comprehend this truth.

However, the warning message is much stronger for the government. It is undeniable that although the movement was initially for quota reform, it later took the shape of a movement to overthrow the government. This movement was neither a systematic nor democratic. Rather, it was an attempt to taste power through undemocratic, back-alley, violent means. An attempt was made to create a Bengali Spring in Bangladesh in the style of the Arab Spring.

Undoubtedly, since the government is in power, it has more responsibility. Therefore, the government needs to rethink and adjust its path in some aspects. Firstly, viewing the government and the party through the same lens must stop. There are law enforcement agencies to control any violence. They must be used to control violence. Bangladesh law has given them the power to control violence. Using any special community, party or specific organization may have the opposite effect. It hurts the minds of the general public. People never take it well, rather this action is considered contrary to the rule of law. Secondly, public representatives must realize that they are not representatives of any particular party or group, but representatives of all. They are representatives of all parties, whether they believe in their ideology or not. Therefore, instead of showing an unyielding attitude to any problem, they should move toward dialogue as quickly as possible. They must cultivate a mentality to listen to the other side. Exchange of views or dialogue can melt the ice of any kind of problem. 

Thirdly, government officials must realize that for geographical reasons, Bangladesh is in an important position in geopolitics. Naturally, various world powers will want to exert influence according to their wishes. If their interests are not served or if they cannot exert influence as they like, they may provide various kinds of direct or indirect support against the government. If you dig into history, you will find numerous examples of such incidents. Even in what happened surrounding the quota movement, there is no room to underestimate the possibility of support from external powers. The attempt was indeed in the style of the Arab Spring. Therefore, the government needs to be more aware of this issue. For the sake of its existence, the government must always analyze the steps taken by the big powers through appropriate people in appropriate places and take necessary measures. 

Fourthly, this movement did not become prominent or take a violent turn in a single day. The tension gradually increased. A non-violent movement has taken on a violent form. Therefore, in such cases, it is essential to monitor the entire process of the movement and to develop the capacity to take immediate action accordingly. 

Poor communication skills

Finally, there is an increase in public awareness, the lack of understanding of which was glaringly evident in this movement. The government's message was being misrepresented, but there was no one to correct this misinformation. Awami League, an ancient and prosperous party, is in power, but the Awami League leaders have failed to do the job of communicating Awami League's message to the grassroots. The Awami League needs to organize itself as a party. Hard times don't announce their arrival. If in hard times, no one is found brave enough to take responsibility, everything will collapse like a house of cards.

We must learn from the past and pave the way for self-reflection and constructive criticism. Rather than wasting time pondering why the opposition seized opportunities, the government must contemplate how to close all avenues for such opportunism. It is crucial to remember that ignoring the signs will not avert the impending crisis.

(The writer is a Dhaka-based columnist and activist. Views are personal. He can be contacted at fbzahir@gmail.com)